NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 27, 2:58 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 2:58 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
358 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today-Tonight...Scattered showers will continue to develop
and push westward through the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Highest chances will be across western interior portions of
east central Florida, where highest PoPs stand around 30%. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but dry air stretching
into the mid and upper levels from an upper level high pressure
will help to diminish vertical development. The 15Z XMR sounding
found a slight improvement in PWATs from the earlier 10Z sounding,
with 1.54". However, it remains very dry above 700mb. Should any
storm be able to develop, it would be capable of wind gusts to
around 40mph, thanks to the dry air aloft.
Activity will diminish this evening, with showers remaining
largely confined to the Atlantic waters overnight. However, there
will be a slight chance of showers persisting long enough to make
it into coastal areas, especially along the Treasure Coast. Lows
in the low 70s.
Monday...Invest 96L off of the Georgia/South Carolina coast has
been designated as having a 50% chance of development as it moves
W/WNW. This system is expected to remain well north of the local
area, regardless of development. No direct impacts are expected
across east central Florida at this time.
Forecast PWATs are expected to remain similar to Sunday, in the
1.4-1.6" range, as the upper level high pressure remains near the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Thus, PoPs will remain relatively low again,
in the 30-40% range. However, higher chances (~55%) are expected
across far western portions of Okeechobee and Osceola Counties.
There will be a chance of thunderstorms, especially across the
interior during the afternoon hours. Highs Monday in the upper
80s to low 90s.
Rain chances diminishing after sunset, with most of the showers
and storms remaining over the Atlantic again on Monday night. Lows
in the low to mid-70s.
Tuesday-Wednesday (modified previous)...The upper level ridge
moves south- southwest, bringing it closer to the east coast of
Florida on Tuesday, before settling into the Florida area through
Wednesday night. An upper level trough will help to increase rain
and thunderstorm chances once again. Expect scattered to numerous
showers and lightning storms to form each day over the Atlantic
and push onshore, with the best chance for rain occurring in the
afternoon hours each day with enhanced diurnal and sea breeze
effects. PoPs around 60-70% on Tuesday, then 70% on Wednesday.
Onshore flow will continue through the time period, thought will
become increasingly SE as the high pushes southward, with winds
around 5-10 mph each afternoon before decreasing to around 5 mph
overnight. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s, reaching 90
degrees in some places, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday-Saturday (previous)...An upper level low over Canada on
Thursday will slowly move southward towards the Great Lakes on
Friday and into the Midwest on Saturday, with the ridge axis
slowly moving southward through this time frame, reaching just
north of the Florida peninsula on Saturday. At the surface, the
Atlantic ridge axis will slowly shift southward, over the Florida
peninsula, through the time period. Winds will veer
south/southeast on Thursday, before becoming south/southwest
overnight and continuing through Saturday. Wind speeds will be
5-10 mph in the afternoon each day before decreasing to around 5
mph or less each night.
Rain chances will be 70 percent area wide on Thursday, 60 percent
along the coast and 70 percent across the interior on Friday, and 50
percent area wide on Saturday. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and lightning storms to form and move in form the Atlantic on
Thursday, and scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms to
move in from the south/southwest on Friday and Saturday. Afternoon
highs will continue to be warm with highs in the upper 80s and low
90s each day, with overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s each
night.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection for the TAF period.
A more normal afternoon pattern has finally returned. VCSH at
coastal terminals and VCTS at inland terminals until 23Z, and VCSH
carried through tonight and tomorrow at VRB-FPR-SUA for coastal
showers riding in on the easterly flow. Winds out of the east
through the period, with some gusting winds until 23Z. Winds ease
overnight, then return around 14Z. All terminals pick up VCSH
tomorrow at 15Z due to ample moisture and easterly flow. An isolated
thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out tomorrow afternoon for inland
terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Rest of Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to continue across the local Atlantic
waters through tonight. A few showers may persist long enough to
make it to the coast, especially along the Treasure Coast.
Easterly winds diminishing overnight, becoming around 5-10kts by
daybreak. Seas 3-5ft.
Monday (modified previous)...Invest 96L off of the GA/SC coast
will continue W/WNW before making landfall in that area on Monday.
Direct impacts to east central Florida are not expected. Scattered
showers and lightning storms will develop offshore and move
inland as the onshore flow continues, with winds around 5-10 mph
through the time period. Seas will be 3-4ft in the near shore
waters and 4-5ft in the offshore waters.
Tuesday-Thursday (previous)...The Atlantic ridge axis remains
north of the local area, continuing the onshore flow through the
time period. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
will be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly from Brevard
southward, with showers and isolated lightning storms remaining
possible overnight. Winds will decrease slightly each night, to
around 5-10 KT, before increasing to around 10-12 KT in the
afternoon. Seas will be 3-4 ft on Tuesday, before decreasing to
2-3 ft on Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 88 74 88 / 20 30 20 50
MCO 72 91 74 91 / 20 40 20 70
MLB 75 87 76 88 / 20 30 30 60
VRB 73 89 74 88 / 20 30 30 70
LEE 73 91 74 90 / 10 40 20 60
SFB 72 91 74 90 / 10 30 20 60
ORL 73 92 76 91 / 20 30 20 70
FPR 73 89 74 88 / 20 30 30 70
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
Leahy/Weitlich/Negron/Haley
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 27, 10:19 AM EST, 7 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-272200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will develop and
move westward across the area this afternoon, with greatest
potential for storms across the interior, west of I-95. The main
threats with any storms that develop today are occasional cloud-
to-ground lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusty winds up to
40 mph. Storm motion will be toward the west around 10 to 15 mph.
.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Tide and ocean conditions will produce a High Risk of dangerous
rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches today.
Numerous rescues occurred at the beaches of east central Florida
yesterday, and lifeguards are reporting high rip current activity
again today. Entering the surf is not recommended.
If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against
the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline
until the current weakens and then swim back to shore. If unable
to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated storms will be possible through this afternoon,
mainly across inland lakes. Any storms that form will be able to
produce wind gusts near 30 to 35 knots as they move toward the
west around 10 to 15 mph.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Scattered afternoon showers and lightning storms are forecast
early this week. Rain and storm chances will then increase from
the middle through late this week, as deeper moisture returns to
the area. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, locally heavy rain,
and gusty winds will be the main threats especially from mid to
late this week.
A moderate rip current risk is expected to across the beaches of
east central Florida for the upcoming week.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.
Pendergrast/Weitlich