Strong onshore flow, increasing swells, and rough surf brought hazardous beach conditions to South Florida Atlantic coast beaches. Two girls were rescued by a rip current in Palm Beach County.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Strong onshore flow, increasing swells, and rough surf brought hazardous beach conditions to South Florida Atlantic coast beaches. Two girls were rescued by a rip current in Palm Beach County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 10:04 AM EST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1004 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021
.UPDATE...
A few showers over the Atlantic waters throughout the morning have
managed to work their way over some of the east coast metro areas
along the breeze. The overall shower coverage has diminished with
most showers over northern portions of the area. Moisture will
continue to increase across the region as winds become
southeasterly and southerly by this afternoon and evening. PWAT
from the 12Z MFL sounding was below an inch but as moisture begins
to advect across the area this will continue to rise and be able
to support additional shower development with diurnal heating.
Therefore, showers and will not rule out an isolated thunderstorm
across northern and east coast portions of the region later this
afternoon and this evening ahead of the approaching cold front. No
major changes to the POPs from the previous forecast as the
previous forecast is on track with latest short term hi-res
models.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 617 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021)
AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Prevailing VFR this morning with a few showers possible for the
eastern terminals. Shower chances increase later this afternoon
and evening with brief MVFR conditions possible. Breezy conditions
continue today with winds gradually veering from easterly this
morning to southerly by this evening. Gusts to around 25 kt remain
possible through this afternoon. Winds become southwesterly ahead
of an approaching front, with some lower ceilings possible
towards end of period, will monitor for changes with next cycle.
PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 317 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021)
SHORT TERM...
Today and Tuesday...
An upper trough now extending from the Upper Midwest through the
Southern Plains will reach the eastern Seaboard today before moving
offshore by Tuesday. This will subsequently flatten downstream
ridging initially across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida early in the
period. Surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic region early
this morning will shift away to the east as upper heights fall and
surface low pressure develops off the Mid Atlantic coast. A trailing
frontal zone should approach the area early Tuesday morning and
should reach the Florida Straits by mid Tuesday afternoon.
As the surface high moves away return flow will evolve ahead of the
surface trough with low-level winds veering towards southerly by
later this afternoon or evening. Coincident with this directional
shift is a push of low-level moisture advection into the area from
the Greater Antilles as precipitable water values increase to around
1.25 inches by this afternoon. While these values are
climatologically notable (~75th percentile for late February) the
return interval is fairly frequent and is on the order of every
other year or so. Therefore look for scattered showers to continue
today with generally light amounts given progressive flow keeping
things moving and dry conditions aloft keeping cloud depths rather
shallow. That said 90th percentile values from our probabilistic QPF
do suggest some potential for localized amounts of over 0.5 inches
to be realized somewhere along the Atlantic coast should shower
development become more numerous in this area. While showers are
favored there remains a small chance for a thunderstorm or two
mainly from the Lake region towards the East Coast and Atlantic
waters this afternoon and evening. Maintained the previously
collaborated slight chance for thunder in our weather grids as a
result.
The low-level winds should veer further early Tuesday ahead of the
front with only weak forcing along the surface frontal zone and
limited large-scale dynamics. Therefore scattered showers are
possible on Tuesday as the front slowly moves across the area. By
the late afternoon and evening the best shower chances should be
confined to eastern portions of our area and the Atlantic waters
with drying expected elsewhere.
Temperatures should remain mild through the short term period with
highs today ranging from around 80 on the east coast to the mid 80s
over inland Southwest Florida. Readings will cool a bit on Tuesday
while ranging from the upper 70s over Palm Beach County and the Lake
region to the lower 80s over much of Dade, Broward and inland
Collier Counties.
LONG TERM...
Tuesday night through Sunday...
Models depict a long wave trough departing the NE CONUS heading into
the NW Atlantic, with an associated sfc boundary extending all the
way down to SoFlo on Tue night. With all the upper level support
gone, the leftovers of the front will gradually dissipate, keeping
just enough residual moisture for some scattered showers along the
Atlantic metro areas Tuesday evening. By Wednesday, POPs decrease to
single digits as ridging quickly establishes in the wake of the
FROPA, bringing generally zonal flow and strong subsidence across
the area.
Meanwhile, long range models develop a low-level ridge near the SE
Atlantic coast coast, which bring mainly easterly flow across SoFlo,
with a relatively dry airmass and benign weather conditions
prevailing through the weekend. There might be enough low level
moisture for a few quick-moving brief showers to move into the
coastline from the Atlantic as daytime heating takes place.
Temperatures will be near normals with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Wednesday, then a gradual warming trend is
expected for the rest of the work week and into the weekend with
afternoon highs hitting the mid to upper 80s.
MARINE...
A cold front should approach the region later today into Tuesday.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible during this time.
Breezy winds continue today with cautionary to hazardous boating
conditions. Gradual improvement is expected towards mid week.
BEACHES...
A high rip current risk continues for the Atlantic beaches into at
least the first portion of Tuesday with an elevated risk continuing
thereafter. An isolated thunderstorm is possible today into Tuesday
morning for the Atlantic Beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 70 82 67 81 / 20 30 30 20
West Kendall 68 84 66 82 / 20 30 20 20
Opa-Locka 68 82 65 80 / 30 30 30 20
Homestead 68 82 66 80 / 20 20 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 70 82 67 80 / 30 30 30 20
N Ft Lauderdale 69 80 66 79 / 30 30 20 20
Pembroke Pines 68 82 65 81 / 30 30 30 20
West Palm Beach 67 79 63 78 / 30 30 20 10
Boca Raton 68 80 65 80 / 30 30 20 20
Naples 67 78 60 80 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ630-
650-651-670-671.
GM...None.
&&
Update/Aviation...Kelly
Today through Tuesday and Marine...SPM
Tuesday Night through Sunday...AR
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www.twitter.com/nwsmiamiHazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 1013 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 230315- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 1013 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 ...Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions Today... ...A Few Thunderstorms Possible Today... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Rip currents: There is a high rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches. Marine: hazardous winds and seas continue today for the Atlantic waters. A few waterspouts are also possible today. Thunderstorms: there is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm. Lightning is the primary hazard. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY High Risk of Rip Currents will continue for the east coast beaches of South Florida through Tuesday. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday with a frontal passage. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
The Palm Beach Daily News reported that two sisters caught in a rip current were rescued by Palm Beach lifeguards after being spotted in distress just after 11 A.M. on the north end of Midtown Beach in the Town of Palm Beach. Both girls received medical attention as a precaution.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 936825.