Tropical Storm in Florida, August 13 to 14, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1148 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.UPDATE...
Tropical Depression Fred continues to move over the northern Cuba
coastline am. Latest radar images in the Florida Straits has
scattered showers tracking westerly over the islands... three
hourly precip is less than one inch attm as storms are moving at
around 30 mph. Morning sounding indcg precip wtr has decreased to
around 1.8 inches which is a slight chance in atmosphere moisture
column. Surface obs indcg a slight incr in winds over the last six
to 12 hours and this has been factored into the latest coastal
waters and zone forecast packaged in the morning update.

Little overall change in the the development and the timing for
the storm as it is projected to make a gradual turn to the north
this eve and approach the Keys early tomorrow morning. Look for an
increase in storm activity this the evening and into the
overnight hours. Current forecasts are fine.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ076>078.

     Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday
     night for FLZ076>078.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>054-072>074.

     Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ055-075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...11/Kuyper
Aviation/Nowcasts....Williams Data
Acquisition.....KR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
629 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-141030-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
629 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Tropical Depression Fred will move along or just north of eastern
and central Cuba today and tonight. Weather conditions will begin
to deteriorate gradually with thundery squalls becoming more
frequent late this afternoon and evening as Fred approaches the
Florida Keys. The primary hazards will be cloud to surface
lightning strikes and localized wind gusts 45 to 55 mph.

A few tornadoes will be possible late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Fred is expected to intensify slowly back to tropical storm
strength before reaching the Florida Keys on Saturday. The
potential risk for multiple hazards remains essentially unchanged
for the Florida Keys, including flooding rainfall, tropical storm
force winds, especially in squalls, isolated tornadoes, and
treacherous marine conditions. Conditions are not likely to
improve until Saturday evening.

A Flood Watch is in effect until late Saturday night. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8
inches will result in a significant potential for flooding of
streets and poor drainage areas, especially during the times of
high tide.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CLR