NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 5:45 AM EST, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 5:45 AM EST, 3 hours 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
645 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will slowly move to the south and east through
the end of this week. A cold front will approach the region from the
west, arriving late Thursday before stalling nearby through the
weekend. The front will lift and finally move away from the area
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The upper ridge providing this lengthy round of excessive heat to
the region will begin to shift southward and weaken today as a
digging vort max in Ontario/Quebec results in height falls in much
of the Northeast. An attendant cold front will slowly shift
southward attendant to the perturbation, providing sufficient lift
for the development of scattered to numerous storms to our north and
west by late morning or early afternoon. Meanwhile, in our CWA,
another day of hot and humid weather will occur as continued
subsidence aloft and return flow on the northwest side of the ridge
provide the necessary conditions for excessive heat.
Analysis of forecast soundings for this afternoon suggests that
mixing may lower dew points just a little more compared to
yesterday, as somewhat drier air will be present aloft. However,
this will likely be offset by stronger diabatic heating via strong
insolation and limited cloud cover for most of the day.
Additionally, I continue to suspect that moisture pooling in advance
of the front will be stronger than advertised, likely leading to
locally higher dew points in the northern third to half of the CWA.
With this in mind, think observed heat indices this afternoon will
be quite similar to yesterday...perhaps just a degree or two lower
in the urban corridor.
Based on the similar conditions expected today, feel that the lower
elevations and far southeastern portions of Carbon/Monroe Counties
will meet advisory criteria by early afternoon. Have hoisted another
heat advisory for this. In addition, yesterday's verification
indicates that advisory conditions were met just east of Chesapeake
Bay in Maryland, aided by the warm waters and favorable wind
direction. With similar (perhaps slightly worse, given that it will
likely be a degree or two warmer) conditions forecast today, have
issued a heat advisory for our Maryland counties as well. Otherwise,
no changes have been made to the heat products. Forecast highs today
will be in the 90s for most areas (with 80s likely near the coast
and in the southern Poconos).
Attention turns to the north this afternoon as convection develops
in advance of the digging trough. Convection-allowing models are
somewhat variable in appearance with the convective evolution this
afternoon, but the general idea is that clusters of storms will
likely organize with time as cold pools develop and congeal. Despite
modest vertical wind shear, instability will be plentiful in the
warm sector this afternoon, with well-mixed boundary layers and
residual dry air aloft from the retreating ridge. MLCAPEs in excess
of 2500 J/kg are probable in the northern CWA in the preconvective
environment. With favorable thermodynamic profiles, damaging wind
gusts should be expected with the strongest convective cores and
with convection that organizes into line segments. One question will
be how much (if any) convection develops in advance of the front
and/or organizing outflow boundary. My suspicion is that there will
likely be little given the lingering effects of the ridge. However,
cannot rule it out entirely, especially northwest of the Fall Line
(where terrain effects may locally enhance lift).
The timing of the organized convection to our north reaching the CWA
appears to be after 4 pm and most likely closer to 6-8 pm. Timing is
rather uncertain, though, with model variability on the order of 2-5
hours. Convection will likely be moving fairly quickly given
tendency for downwind propagation, with storms rapidly approaching
southeast PA and central NJ during the mid-to-late evening. Models
are trending convection downward after 10 pm owing to nocturnal
stabilization, but they were much too aggressive with the weakening
trend early this morning with the storms to our north. Given the
unusually unstable environment and somewhat elevated near-surface
winds, storms may persist longer than guidance suggests. Have
maintained slight-chance to chance PoPs overnight given this
potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The surface cold front starts to make its way towards our area on
Thursday but may not fully move into the region until later in the
day. This will have a direct impact on the forecast highs as just
how far the cooler air can make it into the region remains in
question. Dew points will be in the 70s keeping us in a very muggy
airmass until the front arrives. Cloud cover will increase through
the day but we may still see enough sunshine, especially across our
southern areas, to see some temperatures rise into the lower 90s.
Several shortwaves will move through the region, largely moving
along a surface trough draped across the area. Along with sufficient
instability due to daytime heating, we should see thunderstorms
develop by Thursday afternoon. The flow is not very progressive on
Thursday and training cells may become problematic, especially as
the airmass is extremely moist with PWATs still showing to be in the
2-2.5 inch range. Flash Flooding potential is becoming a bigger
concern for Thursday and WPC has placed our entire forecast area in
the slight risk of their Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. There is
also the potential for some severe thunderstorms across the region
and we remain in a Marginal risk for severe wx in the SPC Day 2
outlook. CAMs show some discrete cells before a more linear
development occurs. Bulk shear is around 40 kts and we should have
strong enough lift to allow for some hail, though the main threat
appears to be damaging winds at this point. Some stabilizing of the
airmass should occur Thursday night as the front starts to make its
way across the region, though we may continue to have some showers
through part of the night.
The front should move towards the coast by late Thursday into Friday
but it will stall near or over our area. This will keep the chance
for showers and thunderstorms through Friday as several waves move
along the stalled boundary. With the rain that falls on Thursday, we
will likely be pretty saturated, so any additional rain on Friday
will exacerbate any flooding concerns. PWATs will still be in the
1.5-2.5" range across the region, with the higher values across our
southeastern areas. Cooler air should be able to make its way across
the region and daytime highs will be much cooler than they have been
all week long. It is likely we may not even reach 80, with portions
of the northwestern zones struggling to reach 70.
The upper trough digs down into western Pennsylvania late Thursday
and then may potentially close off some as it moves to the east.
However, guidance is much more in line with the progressive nature
of the trough with the latest runs, though there still remains some
uncertainty as to whether or not it closes off or just remains a
deep trough. Regardless, the latest runs show the trough axis
crossing the area Friday night. As the trough pushes to the east, we
should see the showers start to come to an end.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The stalled boundary remains near or over the region through at
least Sunday before it may shift slightly more offshore and away
from our area by Tuesday.
We should be on the backside of the upper trough by Saturday but it
is slow moving and has quite a bit of energy rotating through the
flow and across our region through Sunday. By Monday, it should be
far enough away that it loses its hold on our region.
With the upper trough and the surface boundary around, we should
continue to see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend.
Flow across the region over the weekend will be more northerly,
keeping the cooler temps in place with highs in the 70s on Saturday
and in the 70s to around 80 on Sunday. As the flow starts to turn
more to the west and then southwest, temperatures will rebound and
we should highs back into the low to mid 80s on Monday and even
begin to see upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR with southwest winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts
to 20 kt. Storms will develop well to the north and west,
approaching northern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania after 21z.
Storms may reach RDG/ABE between 21z and 00z, with brief
restrictions in heavy rain. Strong/erratic wind gusts and frequent
lightning should be expected in proximity to convection. Moderate
confidence.
Tonight...Storms will likely continue southeastward through most of
PA/NJ during the evening, with brief restrictions possible.
Torrential downpours, strong/erratic wind gusts, and frequent
lightning will all be threats. Storms will likely diminish and/or
move east of the TAF sites overnight, with mostly VFR expected.
Cannot rule out some patchy fog, however, especially in locations
that experience heavy rainfall. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday...Periods of MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain possible. South to southwest winds around 5 to 10
knots on Thursday, becoming light and variable Thursday night.
Friday...Periods of MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain possible. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 becoming more
easterly along the coast. Winds may become light and variable at
times. Low confidence.
Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms
possible with sub-VFR conditions. Northerly winds around 5 knots.
Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Mostly sub-advisory conditions are expected through tonight. South
to southwest winds of 10 to 20 kt are expected, with seas generally
2 to 4 feet. There is a chance of storms this evening/tonight, with
strong/erratic wind gusts and locally higher waves to be expected in
their proximity.
Outlook...
Sub-Advisory conditions are expected to continue across the area
waters. Seas start to build and may near 5 feet late Thursday
into Friday and again on Saturday.
Rip Currents...
Conditions on the waters today will be similar to those seen the
past several, with south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph in the
surf zone with low-to-medium period swell. The more favorably
oriented central/southern New Jersey coast will likely see a
moderate risk for rip currents today, while a low risk remains
for Delaware and for the Monmouth County coast. Conditions will
likely be quite similar again on Thursday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-
071-102-104-106.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-101-
103-105.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NJZ008>010-012-013-015-017>019.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007-014-
016-020-027.
DE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...None.
&&
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Meola