California, 2021

Drought in California, February 1 to 28, 2021

February 1 to 28, 2021 · NWS STO · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

Northern California typically experiences a wet season, October through May, and a dry season May through September. Last year's water year, October 2019 through September 2020, was one of the driest on records.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS STO wrote it up.

Northern California typically experiences a wet season, October through May, and a dry season May through September. Last year's water year, October 2019 through September 2020, was one of the driest on records. This likely contributed to the U.S. Drought Monitor's decision to place portions of interior northern California into extreme drought on September 29, 2020. Portions of Shasta, Tehama, Butte, Glenn, Colusa, Yolo, Solano, Yuba, Nevada, and Sacramento counties remain placed extreme drought. The rest of interior northern California was placed into severe drought (D2) on December 8; however, the state of California has not announced that these locations are in drought.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sacramento, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:30 PM PST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 10:30 PM PST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1030 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate showers possible today across the northern
Sacramento Valley and northern mountains. A winter storm is
forecast to impact NorCal late Monday into Tuesday night. Dry
weather should return by Thursday and continue through the
weekend with periods of increased north to east winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Evening Update: Some WAA precip is rapidly moving Nwd over the
Nrn portion of the CWA including the Nrn Sac Vly where RDD could
pick up some light QPF by 11 pm LT. This band will move through by 1
am or so over Shasta Co.

The frontal band is along the N coast and will nudge inland on Mon
as the upper trof axis (mentioned below) barely moves to 130W.
Energy moving into the base of the trof will eventually bifurcate or
split into 2 low pressure systems, one heading well to the SW of
Norcal and the parent low moving into the Pac NW Tue/Wed. It is this
parent low that may keep some showers over portions of Norcal into
Wed as it deepens a trof over NV into the afternoon.

Best estimate of the frontal band is that is should move into the NW
quarter of our CWA Tue evening, then moving into the 80/50 corridor
Tue morning. It should linger over the Sierra into Tue evening,
possibly longer into Wed morning for areas S of 50 if one leans to
the GFS solution.

NAM 3km this evening indicated the chance of higher REF Tue
afternoon over the Nrn Sac Vly/NE foothills with nice veering
profiles, but limited mid level CAA. Can't rule out a possible T-
storm there, but chances seem low as the CAPE is thin and capped
around 10-11 kft.

.Previous Discussion...
A large upper level trough continues deepening over the eastern
Pacific today, clearly visible on satellite imagery. Moisture plume
remains fairly stable today ranging over the northwestern California
coast up into the Pacific Northwest. Light showers continue over the
Coastal Range, southern Cascades, and northern Sacramento Valley
this afternoon into tonight.

The next winter storm is still slated to impact interior Northern
California tomorrow through early Wednesday. Ensemble guidance
continues to indicate the trough will begin moving inland tomorrow
with the main dynamics moving into the CWA late tomorrow. General
timing has not changed much since the previous forecast, though
slight timing inconsistencies of the onset and southern extent of
the precipitation remain between the GEFS and Euro ENS. Overall,
still expecting the main band of precipitation to begin pushing
into the northern counties tomorrow afternoon, slowing spreading
southwest into the Sierra and Central Valley by tomorrow evening.
The heaviest precipitation is expected late tomorrow night through
Tuesday night. Snow levels are now beginning higher with most
snowfall expected above 5000 to 6000 feet. Light snow may be
possible down to 4500 feet behind the frontal passage Tuesday.
Precipitation amounts do continue to slightly decrease, though.
QPF amounts are now 0.5 to 1.25 inches in the Valley with up to
1.5 to 2 inches in the foothills and mountains below snow level.
In the mountains, 8 inches to 2 feet of snow are forecast with
locally up to 3 feet around Lassen NP only. Gusty winds are also
expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Gusts up to 20 to 30
mph are possible in the Valley and up to 40 to 50 mph in the
mountains, locally higher in wind prone areas.

Precipitation is expected to begin decreasing overnight Tuesday
through early Wednesday as the trough continues to move
southwest. Mountain showers could linger through Wednesday
morning. The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect timing unchanged
from late Monday night through early Wednesday morning. -HEC

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...
Models are in good agreement the Eastern Pacific Ridge will build
into next weekend with the ridge axis slowly moving towards the
West Coast. Models continue to trend a low pressure system
eastward that is expected to drop into the great basin Friday. The
latest forecast guidance indicates this will be far enough into
our east that no notable impacts are expected for Northern
California. High pressure over the region will yield quiet and dry
weather for Northern California with generally seasonable
temperatures. Periodically breezy north to east winds are
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected with MVFR possible due to passing showers
KRDD and KRBL. Winds generally under 15 kts. Southerly Gusts
increase after 18 UTC Monday. Surface gusts 10-20 kts expected for
Valley terminals.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
night for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

&&

Event by event

5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Shasta Lake/North Shasta County

When
February 1, 12:00 AM PST to February 28, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Shasta Lake/North Shasta County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of February, the U.S. Drought Monitor kept the majority of zone 13, which covers Shasta County, in extreme drought (D3). The California Department of Water Resources continues the water allocation of 10% for the State Water Project that started on December 1st.

Drought, Northern Sacramento Valley

When
February 1, 12:00 AM PST to February 28, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Northern Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of February, the U.S. Drought Monitor kept all of zone 15, portions of Shasta and Tehama counties, into extreme drought (D3).They also noted on this month's call the following impacts for the Sacramento Valley: low groundwater levels, dry stock pond, and poor range-land and pasture conditions. Some ranchers have even stated they've started selling livestock. Additionally, the California Department of Water Resources continues the water allocation of 10% for the State Water Project that started on December 1st.

Drought, Central Sacramento Valley

When
February 1, 12:00 AM PST to February 28, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Central Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of February, the U.S. Drought Monitor kept most of Glenn and Colusa, and Sutter counties along with the western portions of Butte and Yuba counties in extreme drought (D3). They also noted on this month's call the following impacts for the Sacramento Valley: low groundwater levels, dry stock pond, and poor range-land and pasture conditions. Some ranchers have even stated they've started selling livestock. Additionally, the California Department of Water Resources continues the water allocation of 10% for the State Water Project that started on December 1st.

Drought, Southern Sacramento Valley

When
February 1, 12:00 AM PST to February 28, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Southern Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of February, the U.S. Drought Monitor kept all of Yolo County, and portions of Sacramento, Sutter, Solano counties in extreme drought (D3). They also noted on this month's call the following impacts for the Sacramento Valley: low groundwater levels, dry stock pond, and poor range-land and pasture conditions. Some ranchers have even stated they've started selling livestock. Additionally, the California Department of Water Resources continues the water allocation of 10% for the State Water Project that started on December 1st.

Drought, Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County

When
February 1, 12:00 AM PST to February 28, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of February, the U.S. Drought Monitor kept all of zone 63, which covers western Tehama, Glenn, and Colusa counties in extreme drought (D3). They also noted on this month's call the following impacts for the Sacramento Valley: low groundwater levels, dry stock pond, and poor range-land and pasture conditions. Some ranchers have even stated they've started selling livestock. Additionally, the California Department of Water Resources continues the water allocation of 10% for the State Water Project that started on December 1st.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in California, February 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 945464, 945465, 945466, 945467, 945468.