Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita, Black, White, and Cache Rivers in early February 2021.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita, Black, White, and Cache Rivers in early February 2021.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:58 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1058 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 .AVIATION... Moisture continues to rotate around a departing area of low pressure currently located over the southern Great lakes. As the system pulls away, skies will slowly through the night hours. VFR conditions becoming predominant. Winds will be gusty for a few hours early in the period before diminishing only to become gusty once again Monday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 220 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021) SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday The H500 low is continuing to work its way eastward toward the eastern US. In its wake, the flow aloft will remain sharply out of the N/NW through the period. Elevated NW winds will remain in place on Monday, although not as strong as today. Widespread low cloud cover will erode across much of central and southern Arkansas tonight, but northern Arkansas will still have to contend with it on Monday. Sfc ridging will move over the area for Tuesday, providing light and variable winds throughout the day. Temps through the period are expected to remain near to slightly below average before a warming trend begins for the mid-week timeframe. LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday To begin the long term PD, broad H500 ridging will be positioned over the Cntrl CONUS. W/ plentiful forcing for descent over the region, the Srn nose of sfc high pressure will extend Swrd out of the Upper Midwest, provoking settled condns and seasonal temps in the 50s and 60s across the fcst area on Wed and Thurs. By Thurs afternoon, upper ridging will begin to deamplify and translate Ewrd as a Wrn US upper wave approaches over the Rocky Mtns. The associated sfc mass response will introduce Chc PoPs into the fcst area as an initial cold frnt plows through the Natural State Fri morning. Upper lvl troughing will become stationary w/ a high amplitude wave pattern stalling over the Cntrl US. Sat through the end of the PD...Several perturbations are progged to traverse through the mean flow, and 12Z deterministic guidance is progging H500 height anomalies in excess of -35 dam, in conjunction w/ H850 temp anomalies of -20 to -25C over the course of the weekend. Needless to say, trends are continuing towards a significant intrusion of arctic air through the Cntrl US. Following the aforementioned initial cold frnt on Thurs/Fri, as more perturbations eject through the mean flow, another surge of Canadian air is progged to enter the Great Plains and the Srn Cntrl US in the late Sat night/early Sun morning timeframe. Details as far as the magnitude of temperatures will still need to be ironed out as this potential event nears. In addition to potential arctic air, w/ cold sfc temps and anomalously cold temps aloft, the potential for PDs of wintry wx will remain possible, however confidence remains low as far as coverage and likelihood of snow, and specific details cannot be ironed out attm...stay tuned for future fcst updates. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Aviation...GOUDSWARD
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 908 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 908 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Gusty west and northwest winds will slowly subside through the night. Boaters are urged to use caution if planning to be out on any area lakes. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is anticipated. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday While uncertainty is high, there is some potential for a mix of rain and snow over portions of the area late week into the weekend. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita River at the Thatcher Lock and Dam from January through February 3, 2021.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Black River at Black Rock from January through February 8, 2021.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the White River at Augusta from January through February 15, 2021.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Cache River at Patterson from January through February 9, 2021.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 941631, 941632, 941633, 941634.