Arizona, 2021Wildfire in Arizona, May 16 to 19, 2021
May 16 to 19, 2021 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
The human caused Warsaw Fire started May 16 southwest of Ruby in Santa Cruz County. The wildfire grew to 950 acres by May 19 in hot and dry conditions and gusts to 40 mph.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The human caused Warsaw Fire started May 16 southwest of Ruby in Santa Cruz County. The wildfire grew to 950 acres by May 19 in hot and dry conditions and gusts to 40 mph. No fire growth was experienced after this date, but the fire was not officially contained until May 25. Fire suppression costs tallied $500,000.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 2:04 PM MST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 16, 2:04 PM MST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Sun May 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A passing weather system will bring cooler temperatures
and gusty afternoon winds to start the week. It will also result
in a chance of thunderstorms mainly in the White Mountains
northeast of Tucson. High pressure will heat things back up by
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Increasing southwesterly flow today ahead of a low
pressure system currently near southern California and western
Arizona. Windy at times this afternoon.
The low will push slowly across northern Arizona tonight and
Monday. The resulting cooling will knock 10+ degrees off of
recent highs. Breezy Monday afternoon with locally windy
conditions east of Tucson, including portions of Cochise and
Graham counties. A modest moisture increase will bring a chance of
afternoon thunderstorms to the White Mountains north of Safford
(and northeast of Tucson) the first half of the week, with best
chances Tuesday.
A shortwave ridge will bring a quick return to the middle 90s by
mid week. Another system passing a little further north of our
area will bring gusty winds and another brief cooling trend
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
Mostly clear. Winds 15-22 kts out of the southwest gusting 30-35
kts. Winds will diminish aft 17/03Z and be out of the southeast at
5-10 kts with breezy west winds tomorrow afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will be strong and gusty today across the
entire area with wind speeds 15-25 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect until 8 PM this evening for areas south and east of
Tucson. In the Warning area, wind speeds will be 20-25 mph with
single digit RH values. Monday and Tuesday breezy winds will be
confined mainly east of Tucson. Wednesday winds will be elevated
to the west and east of Tucson. Wind speeds pick back up on
Thursday into Friday with elevated fire weather conditions
possible. Minimum RH values will continue to be in the single
digits to lower teens this week. Dry conditions will prevail
across most of southeast Arizona this week, with a chance of
thunderstorms in the White Mountains Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ151-152-154.
&&
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Wildfire, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys
- When
- May 16, 4:30 PM MST to May 19, 6:00 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
- Coordinates
- 31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The human caused Warsaw Fire started May 16 southwest of Ruby in Santa Cruz County. The wildfire grew to 950 acres by May 19 in hot and dry conditions and gusts to 40 mph. No fire growth was experienced after this date, but the fire was not officially contained until May 25. Fire suppression costs tallied $500,000.
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Texas, May 16, 20211 death · 1 injured · 8 events
- Rip Current in Florida, May 16, 20211 death · 1 injured · 1 event
- Sneakerwave in California, May 16, 20211 death · 1 event
- Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, May 16 to 19, 2021$100,000 · EF2 · 12 events
- Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 16, 20216 injured · $500,000 · 4.25 in hail · 9 events
- Flash Flooding in Kansas, May 16, 2021$2.0 million · 2 events
- Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, May 16 to 17, 2021$205,000 · EF1 · 19 events
- Wildfire and Hail in New Mexico, May 16 to 17, 2021$300,000 · 0.88 in hail · 2 events
- Flash Flood and Flood in Texas, May 16, 2021$35,000 · 2 in hail · 18 events
- Tornado and Flash Flooding in Colorado, May 16, 20212 in hail · 17 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Utah, May 16 to 19, 20211 in hail · 14 events
- Tornado and Hail in Texas, May 16, 20213 in hail · 7 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958538.