Monsoon moisture increasing from the south brought thunderstorms across northern Arizona and southern Utah. Heavy Rain in Utah produced flash flooding in the Paria River that flows into Arizona.
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The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Monsoon moisture increasing from the south brought thunderstorms across northern Arizona and southern Utah. Heavy Rain in Utah produced flash flooding in the Paria River that flows into Arizona.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 8:43 PM MST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 843 PM MST Tue Jun 29 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm activity will increase Wednesday and Thursday with areas of locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds expected. Storm coverage is forecast to decrease somewhat starting Friday and into the early part of next week. && .UPDATE...Much of the shower activity from this afternoon has begun to wane, aside from an area of showers and thunderstorms over Navajo and Apache counties which may last a couple more hours. Much of the overnight remains dry, though the latest hi- res guidance has a few isolated showers developing overnight and into the morning over western Arizona, and out east over the Chuska Mountains and White Mountains. More widespread showers and thunderstorms develops again Wednesday afternoon. Current forecast handles this well, with only a few minor adjustments to PoPs to match current trends and latest hi-res guidance. && .PREV DISCUSSION /206 PM MST/...HREF mean precipitable water forecasts are for values around 0.2" greater on Wednesday than the analyzed values are today as moisture continues to work its way into Arizona. A threat of localized heavy rain and strong wind gusts will continue into Wednesday afternoon/evening. Storms may have a bit greater westerly component to their motion on Wednesday as we will be located to the south of a weak low over Utah, though enough northerly flow should exist to again allow storms developing over the high terrain to move into the lower elevations. Weak southerly flow aloft is expected from Thursday into Friday as the low over Utah weakens and a high begins to build westward into Arizona. Enough moisture should remain in place for shower and thunderstorm chances each day, though perhaps with coverage not quite as extensive as today and Wednesday. By the weekend, the EPS mean location of the high near the AZ/UT state line would place the majority of northern Arizona in light easterly flow. Again, we should see some shower/thunderstorm activity from the moisture in place, but the higher heights and the light steering flow may eventually decrease rainfall coverage. Temperatures are forecast to climb to near normal values for the weekend. For the early to middle part of next week, a low-grade monsoon pattern is currently expected. Around 10% of ensemble members forecast a trough in westerly flow approaching around Tuesday, which would greatly decrease atmospheric moisture. The other 90% maintain a high somewhere in the area, though the details of exactly where that high is matter as far as moisture and storm coverage. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the night. Otherwise, look for mainly VFR conditions. The next round of showers/storms is set to start after 17z Wednesday. Storms on Wednesday are forecast to be numerous along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line, scattered to the north. Wind gusts 25-35 kts possible in the vicinity of storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon/evening with moderate to heavy rainfall in the strongest storms. Scattered storm coverage is expected Thursday, with afternoon relative humidity remaining largely in the 25-35 percent range. Friday through Sunday...Look for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Haines indices of 4-5 are forecast this weekend mainly north of Interstate 40. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...Humphreys/AT AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum/AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The Cedar City radar (KICX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:58 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Monsoon moisture increasing from the south brought thunderstorms across northern Arizona. Heavy Rain in Utah produced flash flooding in the Paria River that flows into Arizona and the gauge near Lees Ferry rose from 4.4 feet to 6.3 feet at 4:30 AM MST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 968025.