Wildfire in Arizona, June 18 to 30, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
856 AM MST Fri Jun 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Expect near record and record heat through this
weekend, before gradually cooling into next week. Chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue through Saturday,
with a drying trend beginning Sunday and lasting through next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...The forecast is largely on track this morning, with a
few showers continuing across the Hopi Nation on radar and clear
skies everywhere else. Expect another hot day across the board as
the Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect. Chances return for
thunderstorms this afternoon especially across the Rim and White
Mountains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /310 AM MST/...Strong high pressure centered near
the Four Corners this morning will slowly shift southward across
the state through the weekend. Record or near-record heat will
persist and the Excessive Heat Warning for the lower elevations of
Yavapai County, the Grand Canyon and Page areas, as well as the
Little Colorado River Valley has been extended through Sunday with
the latest forecast. There will also be enough moisture for
another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, mainly along the Mogollon Rim/White
Mtns northward. Gusty winds and lightning are the main threats
with these storms. By Saturday, as the center of the high shifts
south, some westerly flow should cause less shower coverage for
Yavapai and western Coconino County with activity mainly along the
Mogollon Rim and higher elevations of eastern AZ. Sunday looks
breezy and even drier, with a slight chance of storms for the
eastern rim and White Mtns.

Next week - the high center is forecast to shift southeast of the
state while a trough develops along the west coast. It will remain
hot, though daytime highs are forecast to drop a few degrees.
Pressure gradients between the trough and ridge will increase,
resulting in gusty southwest to west winds each afternoon. Some
moisture increase is possible for about the eastern third of the
state for the mid week and a slight chance of storms is in the
current forecast. Extended guidance hints at the heat building
again toward next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. Light winds will become generally southwest to west
at 10-15 kts gusting 20 kts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will start over the higher terrain and continue through the early
evening. Outflow winds from showers or storms could create gusty,
erratic wind shifts at area terminals. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very hot weather will continue through Saturday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the higher
terrain each afternoon through Saturday, with the primary threats
being dry lightning and gusty outflow winds. Only very localized
wetting rain is possible. Expect a Haines Index of 5-6 areawide.

Sunday through Tuesday...Sunday will begin a drying trend along with
slowly decreasing temperatures, lasting into early next week. Look
for increasing westerly wind speeds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-008-
012-013-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...Kobold/JJ
AVIATION...Kobold
FIRE WEATHER...NL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff