Arizona, 2021

Drought in Arizona, February 1 to 28, 2021

February 1 to 28, 2021 · NWS TWC · 14 events in 14 counties and zones

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. 0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
14

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 1:47 PM MST, 10 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 1:47 PM MST, 10 hours 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
147 PM MST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong
warming trend to start the week. Another winter weather system
will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance of
valley rain and mountain snow the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge has pushed temperatures up 10 to 15 degrees
warmer compared to 24 hours ago. This trend will continue through
Tuesday as high pressure dominates our weather to start the week.

A portion of the weather system near the Pacific Northwest coast
is expected dig through the central and southern Great Basin
Wednesday and Thursday. Our best chance for valley rain and
mountain snow should be Wednesday night into early Thursday, with
another system brushing by mainly to our northeast early next
weekend. Another tenth to quarter of an inch of rainfall in the
valleys with a few inches of snow possible in the mountains.

However, keep an eye on the development of our eastern Pacific
split. More ensemble members are trying to deepen the split into a
resolution that hints at a cut-off position to our west that could
slow things down quite a bit. Cooler and wetter for the end of the
week is not as much of a slam dunk with this one.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
Scattered to broken cirrus level clouds AOA 20k ft MSL. Normal
surface wind trends generally less than 10kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions will prevail through
Tuesday, before another storm system moves through the region. This
system will have a chance to bring another round of valley rain and
mountain snow showers with breezy to windy conditions the second
half of the week. Cooler temperatures will also accompany this storm
system.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

14 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Tucson Metro Area

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, South Central Pinal County

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
South Central Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Southeast Pinal County

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Chiricahua Mountains

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

Drought, Baboquivari Mountains

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during February, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 2.0 inches near the Mogollon Rim or 50 to 100 percent of normal, but less than a half inch elsewhere, or zero to 50 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across eastern Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained around 2 percent of storage capacity. More than a dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 943063, 943064, 943065, 943066, 943067, 943068, 943069, 943070, 943071, 943072, 943073, 943074, 943075, 943076.