A strong low pressure system brought snow across the Icy Strait corridor and north. Quickly accumulating snow was measured throughout the northern panhandle.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A strong low pressure system brought snow across the Icy Strait corridor and north. Quickly accumulating snow was measured throughout the northern panhandle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 2:02 PM AKST, 7 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
302 PM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021
.SHORT TERM...Initial portion of the forecast is taken up by the
incoming weather system from the Gulf of Alaska and through SE AK.
Temperatures across the panhandle are on the cooler side after
the passing of the last weather system, and sufficient cooler air
will be present to start much of the precip for SEAK as snow. The
organization of the front and anticipated moisture has lead to
multiple Winter Storm Warnings over the northern half of the
panhandle and several Advisories for snowfall amounts. The heavier
snow will be starting before midnight in the Yakutat region and
spreading east, it should reach the Juneau, Haines, and Skagway
areas by sunrise. Accumulations will vary by region of the
panhandle, so please see the appropriate warning product regarding
the expected amounts. The far southern panhandle will start as
snow tonight with minor snowfall amounts, not that portions of the
southern panhandle are looking for more snow after yesterday. The
snow should start mixing with or changing to rain during Monday.
Surface winds are expected to reach 35 kt ( or slightly higher )
gales for the outer coastal waters, and small crafts to gales for
most inner channels are in the forecast.
The following system rolling northward into the eastern gulf is
still having issues with a good solid agreement. Have continued
with a GFS/NAM timing on the feature, with a touch more GFS
influence for the low rolling up. This will bring in a slight warm
up for the southern panhandle spreading a mix precipitation type
into the although the northern panhandle will likely be staying
snow with the precipitation. So expect this section of the
forecast to be changing over the next couple of issuance's. A
second following low is not adding to the confidence factor headed
into midweek.
For a touch of good news, the equinox is around the corner (20th) so
that will mean more daylight than nighttime for SE AK so spring
is almost here. Confidence is fairly good through Monday, and a
lot less so late Monday through to Tuesday.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/...This extended range
forecast period begins with a very large upper level trough that
extends from the central interior south across the central Gulf
and past 50N. A 150 kt upper jet will aide in digging the trough
farther south and then, by Wednesday afternoon, cutting off an
upper low. Model solutions differ on how far south the upper low
will form, but all are very slow to move this trough/low off to
the east. By Friday, the upper low will have reverted to an open
wave once again and exhibit a strong negative tilt over the
Panhandle. The entire feature will be displaced to the east during
the weekend by a slightly more zonal jet pattern.
At the surface, a storm force low will develop with the aide of
the strong digging jet Tuesday night south of the Gulf. Models
are in better than average agreement on the strength of this low,
but differ significantly on the timing and track. All are tracking
it north over the eastern Gulf but vary in how close they track it
to the outer coast. Worst case scenarios will involve high winds
for at least the southern half of the Panhandle Tuesday night and
the central Panhandle on Wednesday.
There will be very modest low level warm air advection associated
with this storm. Current overnight lows Tuesday night are still
supporting snow over the northern Panhandle, but rain over the
southern Panhandle when winds will be the strongest. However, if
the low takes a more easterly track, easterly winds around the
northern periphery of the storm could result in snow vice rain
over the southern half as well.
Blended ECMWF and GFS for updates to pressure and wind through
Wednesday afternoon. PoP and QPF from GFS and SREF with some help
from ECMWF through Wednesday night. Overall confidence is average,
but below average on details of track and resultant wind speeds
over land.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ024-
026.
Strong Wind Monday morning for AKZ026.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday morning for AKZ024.
Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ024.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ025.
Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
AKZ025.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ020-
022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Monday for
AKZ023.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday morning for AKZ023.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ021.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ018-
019.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Monday
for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ035-036-042-043-051-052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034-041-053.
&&
Bezenek/Fritsch
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau6 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
NWS WSO in Yakutat reported 6 inches of snow at 8 am.
Trained Spotter in Gustavus reported 10.4 inches of snow.
Trained spotter in Pelican reported 7.2 inches as of 11:40 am.
COOP observer in Haines reported 8.8 inches of snow at around a 20:1 ratio. Snow Started at 3 am.
A NWS employee reported 12.5 inches of new snow in West Juneau.
Trained spotter in Haines reported a storm total of 19 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 951787, 951792, 951793, 951788, 951795, 951789.