Blizzard in Alaska, January 29, 2021

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
247 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will bring increased cloud cover and chances for snow as
it moves east into the Interior tonight. This will cause
temperatures to warm up over the Interior. Elsewhere, gusty
northerly winds will persist into early Saturday through the
Bering Strait. Very cold wind chill values will be an issue at
times into early Saturday across the Arctic Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 28/12 UTC model suite initialized the low in the Bering Sea a
few millibars to weak when compared to observational data, so we
will make some hand edits to the winds to account for this. The
operational models are in decent agreement in the short term.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 507 dam low is located over the northern
Bering Sea while a 515 dam low is located over Kodiak. A ridge
stretches from the central Interior into the Yukon Territory while
a trough stretches across the Arctic Coast to a 494 dam low over
the Canadian Archipelago. The low over the northern Bering will
push into Bristol Bay tonight before weakening on Friday. The low
near Kodiak will remain relatively stationary before diving to
the southwest Friday night. The trough over the Arctic will
strengthen on Saturday before diving south into the Interior on
Sunday where it will persist into early next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front will push to the northeast over the Interior this evening.
This will bring increased cloud cover to the area to along with
chances for snowfall. North of the Fairbanks area, up to an inch
of accumulation is possible. Fairbanks will see weak downslope
flow that will limit snowfall, so we are not anticipating any
accumulation in town. The Alaska Range will see around an inch of
snowfall at pass level as well. Snowfall is expected Saturday
into Sunday across the Interior as a trough digs southward over
the Interior. Right now this system looks to be the best chance
for measurable snowfall for Fairbanks that we have seen in a
while. Snowfall will diminish on Sunday, and temperatures will
drop Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday night could approach -30
at valley level; however, cloud cover will make the forecast
challenging.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weak surface low over the Mackenzie Delta combined with high
pressure near 80N and 160E will continue to produce east winds
along with broken cloud cover and a few flurries for much of the
North Slope. Temperatures will assume a steady drop going into
the weekend, with some of the coldest temperatures of the season
to follow early next week. Wind chill values will be right around
advisory levels tonight. We opted to issue a wind chill advisory
for zone 203 where Deadhorse will see wind chill values as cold as
55 below.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weather front associated with a 976 mb low situated in the
Central Bering Sea continues to track north through the Bering
Strait and Seward Peninsula, and Western Interior. Low
visibilities in snow and blowing snow continue over the Bering
Strait where a Winter Weather Advisory continues through Midnight
tonight. Blizzard conditions developed today near Point Hope today,
so we opted to issue a Blizzard Warning through noon on Friday
for p Winds in the 40 to 50 mph range will continue along and near
the Bering strait. Strong winds are also expected to continue
along the Chukchi Sea Coast north of the Bering Strait through
Friday. Snowfall in the Western Interior will mostly taper off
tonight, but not before 1 to 2 inches of snow falls over the area.
Colder temperatures are expected for the weekend.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
Starting off early next week, a cold airmass will be in place over
northern Alaska. This has the potential to bring Fairbanks its
coldest temperatures so far this season; however, there is still a
lot of uncertainty due to the cloud cover.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JAN 21