Damaging Winds in Alabama, February 15, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
326 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

...MUCH COLDER AIR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH LOW
WIND CHILLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STANDING WATER TO FREEZE...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

A very dynamic and fast moving system transits the region this
evening with an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. The
primary threats are damaging winds and a few tornadoes. A couple
of strong tornadoes are also possible. A tornado watch is in
effect for the entire region outside of Quitman County. The
setup is favorable with strong dynamics, sufficient instability,
and high shear. In particular, shear in the lowest 1 km and
CAPE in the lower 3 km are favorable for QLCS tornadoes where
bowing segments along the squall line align favorably with the
low to mid-level shear vector (0-3 km). We're also monitoring
discrete cells developing ahead of the line, and where any
activity interacts with a fast northward warm front. Expect
the thunderstorm/tornado threat to move east of the area around
midnight.

Temperatures will fall from the 60s to around 70 this afternoon
to a wide range of lows Monday morning from the mid-20s over
Southeast AL to the low-50s over the Southeast FL Big Bend. In
particular, low temperatures will be at or below freezing from
the Flint River Valley westward into Southeast AL, including
the Western FL Panhandle. Winds will remain elevated tonight,
setting the stage for advisory-level wind chills late tonight
through Tuesday morning west of the Flint River Valley in GA,
including Southeast AL, including north/central Walton and
Holmes Counties FL. Wind chills across this area will dip to
between 15 and 20 degrees late tonight through Tuesday morning.
In addition, any standing water from today's rainfall has the
potential to freeze after midnight, leading to icy spots on
bridges, overpasses, and untreated surfaces, mainly across the
Wind Chill Advisory area.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

A brief break from the persistent wet pattern is in store throughout
the short term. In the wake of Monday's frontal passage, our region
will experience a short period of CAA as winds become northwesterly.
This will bring clear skies through Wednesday morning with dewpoints
in the lower 30s. However, this is short lived, throughout Wednesday
afternoon winds transition to being easterly, cloud cover increases,
and dewpoints begin their climb ahead of the next frontal system on
Thursday. Overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will
be in the low to mid 30s across most of the region, with only the FL
Big Bend reaching the low 40s. Wednesday highs will generally be in
the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Throughout Wednesday night into Thursday morning we'll transition
from easterly flow back into southeasterly flow ahead of the next
frontal system on Thursday. In the process we'll see some impressive
return flow as dewpoints recover quickly from the last frontal
passage. Dewpoints will be going from the mid 40s to the mid 60s
across our northern counties between Wednesday evening and Thursday
afternoon (~18 hours). Throughout the day on Thursday a piece of
energy digs deep into the central plains allowing the longwave
trough trapped over the central US to finally budge. This PV energy
will move eastward bring with it enhanced upper level support,
through PVA, while putting our region under the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak. In the lower levels, the GFS
has remained consistent with the placement of a 50-65 kt LLJ across
our CWA through frontal passage. Additionally, with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s and CAPE around 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front,
all of the ingredients are present for the potential for severe
weather. The limiting factor here could potentially be the lack of
robust midlevel lapse rates. Once this front exist the region Friday
morning, we'll be freed from the wet pattern that has dominated for
the last week or so. We'll enter a cool and dry period with mostly
sunny skies through the rest of the long term as we head into zonal
flow.

Expect overnight lows to rebound after frontal passage. Overnight
lows will range from the mid 50s (before passage) to the lower 30s
(after passage), rebounding into the mid 40s by Monday morning.
Daytime highs will experience a similar pattern and will range from
the mid 70s (before passage) to the low to mid 50s (after passage),
rebounding into the upper 60s by Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail with low ceilings and areas of
fog prior to a cold frontal passage this evening. Along with this
cold front, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will sweep
the terminals from west to east this evening into early tonight.
Once the front/line clear the area, IFR ceilings will prevail into
the morning hours, with winds veering from southwest to northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

As a cold front makes its way across our region this evening into
early tonight, a small craft advisory remains in effect until
Tuesday morning. Post-frontal passage, we'll experience a brief
break in precipitation through Wednesday afternoon. Winds and seas
will likely reach SCA criteria again ahead of the next frontal
system on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River flood warnings are in effect for the Withlacoochee above
Valdosta, the Ochlockonee near Concord (CR 12) and Thomasville
(US 84), and the Apalachicola near Blountstown.

Rainfall amounts over the next week (including today's event)
will range from 1 to 3 inches from the SE FL Big Bend (lower) to
Southeast AL (higher), and could aggravate the river flooding.

For more detailed information on specific river stages and
forecasts, visit: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   37  53  34  60  53 /  90   0   0  40  60
Panama City   34  50  35  63  56 /  30   0   0  30  70
Dothan        26  44  29  56  50 /  40   0   0  30  80
Albany        31  48  31  56  49 /  90   0   0  30  80
Valdosta      41  54  35  59  53 /  90   0   0  40  50
Cross City    52  60  39  67  57 /  90  10   0  50  40
Apalachicola  41  52  39  64  57 /  90   0   0  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Oliver/Montgomery
LONG TERM...Oliver/Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM EST MON FEB 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GULF RESORT BEACH       30.22N 85.89W
02/15/2021                   GMZ750             FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

JM