Wildfire in Texas, November 18, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1120 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

.AVIATION...
18z TAF Issuance...VFR conditions are expected through the period
at all three sites. Southwest winds will prevail at around 15 to
25 knots through tonight before decreasing a bit to 10 to 20
knots through the remainder of the period. Winds will gust up to
30 to 40 knots through today into tomorrow. Low level wind shear
is possible starting late tonight into tomorrow morning from 06z
to 17z with southwest winds of 45 knots at around 2000 feet.

Rutt

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020/

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.
Southwesterly upper flow will become more zonal today through
Thursday morning before transitioning back to southwesterly again
by Thursday afternoon and evening. Surface low pressure developing
to the lee of the Rockies will gradually deepen today through
Thursday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will push south
across the forecast area Thursday evening and thursday night as
surface low tracks south into the northern Panhandles. Cold front
will move through all but the southeastern Texas Panhandle by 12Z
Friday. Unseasonably warm and even record breaking warm conditions
expected today and Thursday before cooler conditions prevail
Thursday night following the passage of the cold front. Continued
dry conditions will prevail through Thursday night.

Schneider

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.
Southwest flow aloft is forecast to prevail across the southern
high plains on Friday ahead of an upper level shortwave trof which
is forecast to move into the western states Friday afternoon, and
then across the plains states Saturday into Sunday morning. Medium
range models are in better agreement handling this particular upper
level storm system. All 00Z operational models except the GFS end
any precipitation by late Sunday afternoon. The GFS ends all
precipitation by 18Z Sunday. The NBM is also finally on board
with non mentionable pops for our fcst area Sunday night. Given
the progressive nature of the upper level flow pattern, ending
precipitation sometime Sunday afternoon at the latest seems
plausible at this time as the upper level shortwave trof is not
expected to slow down and deepen much as it moves across the
region. Therefore, have followed the NBM temps and pops Friday
through Tuesday. Most precipitation is expected to be light rain,
with perhaps a mix of light rain and light snow early Sunday
morning across the northwest sections. Highest QPF values for this
upcoming storm system appear to be across the north central
through eastern sections of the OK and TX Panhandles. Dry weather
is then slated to return for Sunday night through Tuesday.

02

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday.
For today, the LLTR is forecast to extend from southeastern New
Mexico northeastward into southern Kansas. The 500 mb and 700 mb
winds are not as strong as in the SPWO Composite Map with only 25
to 35 knots at 700 mb forecast today and 35 to 40 knots at 500 mb.
Minimum afternoon humidities today across the eastern Oklahoma
and northeast Texas Panhandles will be around 23 to 30 percent
with humidities as low as 13 percent across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle. 20 foot southwesterly winds will be highest across the
eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas Panhandles around 20 to 30
mph with gusts near 35 mph. 20 foot southwesterly winds across the
western Oklahoma Panhandle will be around 15 to 25 mph with gusts
near 30 mph. Current thinking is that this will be a low end
critical fire weather event with Max RFTIs as high as 3 across the
eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle and
then up to 3 across the western Oklahoma Panhandle. The RFTIs are
primarily wind-driven across the eastern Oklahoma and northeast
Texas Panhandles but both wind-driven and relative humidity-
driven across the western Oklahoma Panhandle. Will likely issue a
Red Flag Warning for these areas today with a Fire Danger Statement
across the remainder of the Panhandles from Noon to 6 PM.

For Thursday, the LLTR will be over the Panhandles with 20 foot
southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph across
much of the western and central Texas Panhandle. Minimum afternoon
humidities will be around 15 to 20 percent. 700mb winds forecast
to be around 30 to 35 knots with 500 mb winds roughly 30 to 35
knots. Max RFTIs on Thursday around 2 to 3 and are primarily wind-
driven. Possibly a low end critical fire weather across portions
of the western and central Texas Panhandle with a higher
confidence of elevated fire weather conditions. Will hold off with
any fire weather highlights for now.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Lipscomb...Ochiltree.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron.

&&

23/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
415 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-182200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
415 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
the western and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle as well as parts of
the northeast Texas Panhandle, with elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon across the central Oklahoma Panhandle and the remainder
of the Texas Panhandle due to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph with
higher gusts along with minimum relative humidity values between
13 and 30 percent. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon until
6 PM today across the western and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle as
well as parts of the northeast Texas Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop Thursday afternoon across western and central sections of
the Texas Panhandle due to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with
some higher gusts along with minimum relative humidity values
between 15 and 20 percent.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and
Thursday afternoon.

02