Hail in Texas, May 5, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
418 PM CDT Tue May 5 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight and Wednesday]...

There are moderately low chances that late afternoon convection
blossoming downstream of an approaching cool frontal boundary will
interact with an inland-moving sea breeze (or its subsequent
outflow). This could flare up continued showers and storms
through the late evening hours. Loss of heating will likely allow
much of any late afternoon shower or storm activity to die out by
midnight. Overnight return convection's impetus would be along
the trailing mid-level boundary and, in this scenario, early
Wednesday morning precipitation may stay alive primary over more
coastal counties/along and south of I-10.

A drier air mass will gradually filter in and provide a much more
spring-like Wednesday morning. Lingering overcast/showers over
the southern third of southeastern Texas as temperatures fall into
the upper 50s to lower 60s by sunrise. A weak northeast-veering-east
breeze during the day tomorrow. A dry Wednesday both precipitation
and humidity-wise with the afternoon warming into the average middle
80s under a mostly sunny sky. 31

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...

Onshore winds set to return Weds night as high pressure moves off
to the east. Warming temperatures and increasing low-level moist-
ure is expected Thurs. Highs should range in the mid to upper 80s
across inland areas...lower 80s along the coast. Rain chances are
going to be limited until Fri or so with the passage of the front.
At this time, will be keeping with scattered showers/thunderstorm
activity as this boundary pushes through. Progged moisture return
is still not especially impressive (1.6 to 1.8") but FROPA timing
(during the afternoon) is favorable for development into the eve-
ning hours. Did keep some POPs in through the overnight hours for
our coastal counties/marine waters should this line stall. Cooler
and drier conditions prevail for this upcoming weekend as surface
high pressure builds down from the Plains. CAA to weaken Sat with
east winds setting up on Sun. The onshore flow should return over
the area Mon night with temperatures warming through Tues. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will be shifting to the north this evening with the passage
of the cold front. Isolated showers/thunderstorms could accompany
this line as it moves into the marine waters. Will be expecting a
light/moderate offshore NE overnight...then becoming more E tomor-
row. E/SE winds set to return Weds night and strengthen Thur with
the pressure gradient tightening. Elevated winds/seas may require
SCEC/SCA flags late Thurs afternoon/night. The next cold front is
still on track to move into the marine waters Fri night/early Sat
morning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will accompany this line
and could linger over the Gulf waters through Sat morning. Moder-
ate to strong NE winds to develop and persist Sat/Sat night...and
we could keep SCEC/SCA flags in place for this time period. Winds
will be shifting more easterly by Sun. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      59  84  58  87  71 /  10   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              65  85  59  85  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            70  79  69  80  75 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&