Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 23, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
143 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The dryline this afternoon is much further west than previous
days, evidenced by dewpoints in the 60s to around 70F across
much of the Permian Basin and portions of the Trans Pecos,
Stockton Plateau, and Big Bend Area. High-resolution model
guidance has been consistent in initiating convection this
afternoon, first in the vicinity of the Davis and/or Glass
Mountains and across Pecos county, with coverage increasing
northward across the central Permian Basin. The environment east
of the dryline is characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000-4000
J/kg, thus storms that initiate in the vicinity of the dryline
could rapidly become severe. A couple storms have already
developed in the Davis Mountains and in Lower Brewster county, and
the general evolution is expected to be for storms to gradually
evolve into multicell clusters, though depending on
meso/microscale boundaries and given sufficient shear, a few
supercell structures cannot be ruled out. Threats will lean toward
large to very large hail and damaging downburst winds, with a non-
zero tornado threat this afternoon, transitioning to more of a
wind threat as storms move east out of the area this evening.
Heavy rain will also be possible with any storm that develops,
with some flooding concerns, particularly across portions of Pecos
and Terrell counties and across the northeastern Permian Basin
where locations have received rainfall over the past several days.
Given the increased boundary layer moisture, overnight lows
tonight will be a bit above normal in the 60s for most, as the
dryline retreats into Southeast New Mexico.

Sunday will see a similar setup to today, with another opportunity
for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms along the dryline
across roughly the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. However, temperatures Sunday will
be slightly cooler, closer to normal in the middle 80s to lower
90s for most, hotter through the Rio Grande Valley. A big change
arrives to the region on Monday, as a cold front associated with a
slow moving upper trough pushes into the region. While there's
discrepancy as to just how far west the dryline will be late
Monday morning into Monday afternoon ahead of the front, a triple
point could set up anywhere from around Lea county NM to the
Central Permian Basin, serving as a focus for convection Monday
afternoon. Temperatures Monday continue to trend cooler with
latest guidance, thus have adjusted temperatures down, though
later shifts may need to continue this trend.

Tuesday onward, anomalously cool conditions are expected as the
aforementioned trough cuts off around the Red River Valley/North
Texas, and wobbles around Texas through the end of the week. The
position of this low will dictate rain chances, and with West
Texas/SE New Mexico looking to remain on the west side of the low
through at least midweek, rain chances look to remain fairly
paltry at this time. However, if the low trends westward as some
models indicate by the end of the week into early next weekend,
rain chances will increase accordingly. Details will likely be
ironed out over the next couple of days. Tuesday currently looks
to be the coolest day of the forecast, with highs in the upper 70s
to middle 80s for most, with slightly warmer but still below
normal temperatures through the end of the week before another
cooldown to start next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air resides across the GDP Mtns into much of SE NM. Winds
have been a little slow to mix out/increase but by around 3 PM sw
winds near 15 mph should be fairly common, stronger in favored
areas of GDP Mtns. The RFW will continue until 8 PM MDT this
evening. RH recovery will be better today across most all SE NM,
but GDP Mtns will probably remain poor. Based on moisture we think
that any lightning potential will mostly remain e of the driest
areas (Davis- GDP-SE NM) thru Sun PM, although there is a non-zero
threat of dry lightning in the Davis Sun AM. For SE NM/GDP Mtns
surface winds will be about 5kts less Sun PM than today and temps
will be about 3 degrees cooler. As such we will not issue any
highlights for GDP Mtns/SE NM, but a Fire Danger Statement will
likely be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  88  63  83 /  20  30  30  30
Carlsbad                       60  94  59  81 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         69  88  64  90 /  20  40  30  10
Fort Stockton                  66  89  62  87 /  10  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 62  85  55  73 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          59  89  57  76 /  10  10  10  30
Marfa                          53  85  50  83 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           68  88  63  83 /  10  30  20  20
Odessa                         68  88  62  82 /  10  30  20  20
Wink                           65  94  61  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chavez Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-240830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
324 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020 /224 AM MDT Sat May 23 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight
across the Permian Basin, portions of southeast New Mexico, southward
to the Davis Mountains and Big Bend.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the
Guadalupe Mountains and Eddy County plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday across the
Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday across the
Guadalupe Mountains and Eddy County plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
142 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

TXZ277>279-231930-
Central Brewster County-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
142 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND
EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES...

At 142 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Alpine, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3027 10357 3043 10367 3066 10345 3038 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 224DEG 18KT 3038 10358

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
143 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

TXZ277>279-231930-
Central Brewster County-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
143 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND
EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES...

At 142 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Alpine, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3027 10357 3043 10367 3066 10345 3038 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 224DEG 18KT 3038 10358

49