Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 15, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
228 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

...Severe Storms With Potentially Significant Damaging Winds This
Evening...

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a strengthening upper level
short-wave trough approaching from the west. The trough, combined
with some mid and upper level moisture and instability, has resulted
in some elevated scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, visible satellite showers more than enough
sunshine across our region and West Texas for good day-time heating,
while dewpoints are in the upper 60s. This is resulting in ML CAPEs
above 4000 J/KG already. The dry-line currently extends from near
Lubbock down through Midland and south to the Big Bend region, and
there's already explosive convection in the Big Bend region as of
130 pm. As the trough continues to move east into our region late
this afternoon and tonight, hi-res models are in good agreement that
the initial discrete cells along the dry-line west of our region
will transition to two strong lines of thunderstorms... one coming
from the northwest and one coming from the west. These two lines of
storms are expected to congeal into one line and move west to east
across our region roughly between 5 pm and midnight tonight. Wind
shear will be weak, so there isn't much of a threat of rotating
storms or tornadoes. However, with such strong updrafts, large hail
and strong cold pools resulting in intense convective winds will be
possible. SPC Day 1 severe weather outlook has an Enhanced Risk
across most of our region except Crockett County, with a 30%
probability of damaging winds and the potential for 75+mph wind
gusts from the strongest storms. There will also be some chance for
localized flash flooding due to intense downpours that are capable
of dropping 1-2 inches in an hour.

Storms should be quickly diminishing after midnight, and just our
eastern counties will have small chances for additional
thunderstorms Saturday as the trough moves east of us. With some
cooler northeasterly surface winds Saturday, cooler higher in the
upper 70s to low 80s will be possible in the Big Country and
Heartland, while elsewhere highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Extended forecast is dry Sunday into Friday, as an upper ridge
builds in from the west. That said, one cannot rule out an
isolated thunderstorm in western counties Sunday, in northwest
flow aloft as the upper ridge builds in. Also, Wednesday into
Friday, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out again in
western counties, Crockett and western sections of the Big country
and Big Country, as weak disturbances move across in weak southwest
flow aloft. At this time, however, potential is too limited to
include in the forecast. Warm next week with highs in the mid and
upper 80s Sunday, warming into the lower 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 63  81  63  85 /  70  20   5   5
San Angelo 	 62  88  64  89 /  70  10   5   5
Junction 	 62  86  63  87 /  70  20   5  10
Brownwood 	 62  81  61  86 /  80  30  10   5
Sweetwater 	 63  83  63  85 /  80  10   5   5
Ozona      	 60  89  64  89 /  70  10   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

88/04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
215 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
215 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A large band of thunderstorms is expected to move east across
West Central Texas this late afternoon and evening. Large hail,
and strong to intense damaging winds up to 75 mph are possible.
Flooding is also possible as the storms produce quick but locally
heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few thunderstorms will be possible east of a Haskell, San Angelo
to Sonora line Saturday. The main threat will be dangerous
lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon and
evening. Please relay any information about observed weather to
the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.