A strong upper level disturbance moved out of northern Mexico into the Edwards Plateau during the early evening hours on the 15th. A line of strong to severe storms formed from the Hill Country south into the northern Brush Country in the evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.
A strong upper level disturbance moved out of northern Mexico into the Edwards Plateau during the early evening hours on the 15th. A line of strong to severe storms formed from the Hill Country south into the northern Brush Country in the evening. The storms moved through south Texas during the early morning hours on the 16th. Damaging winds occurred with the storms near Cotulla and over portions of the Coastal Bend.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 8:37 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
937 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020
.DISCUSSION...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for South Texas until
4 AM CDT Saturday. The atmosphere is unstable and conducive for
severe thunderstorms to develop tonight through early Sat morning.
The storms are expected to move in an easterly as an upper level
low tracks northeast across the region. Damaging wind and large
hail are the primary threats, although a tornado can not be ruled
out. Updates have been issued.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 703 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020/
DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion.
Expect convection to develop and push across the area through the
late evening and overnight hours. Much of the guidance pushes
things rather quickly across the area to the coast by around 12Z
Saturday with some convection lingering along the coast
thereafter. Gusty winds are likely with showers and thunderstorms.
Confidence is lower in what happens during the day tomorrow with
some chance for convection to continue along the coast, but a
majority of guidance will push it through as the upper level
system supporting it moves off to the northeast. VFR conditions
this evening will become MVFR to potentially IFR in thunderstorms
through the night, improving to VFR west during the day Saturday,
but MVFR east.
AVIATION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...
Onshore flow continues to stream moisture into the area this
afternoon. An upper level jet streak over the Brush Country by this
afternoon will provide an area of lift that could result in some
isolated showers and thunderstorms. By this evening, showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread as a shortwave trough that
is transitioning to a low over west Texas interacts with a dryline
to produce a line of showers and thunderstorms that will push across
the area. Model timing has been inconsistent, but have generally
come into agreement that storms should enter the western portions of
the CWA around 02Z. PWATs of 1.7 to near 2 inches and CAPE values
3000-4000 J/kg will lead to some strong to severe thunderstorms
tonight through tomorrow morning. SPC has an Enhanced risk just
clipping our northwest counties, a Slight risk over the Brush
Country and most of the Coastal Bend, and a Marginal Risk along our
immediate coast. With the dryline activity, we expect cold pools to
form, leading to strong wind gusts. With the high atmospheric
moisture, we can also expect heavy rainfall. WPC has put the Brush
Country in a Slight risk for Excessive Rainfall. Localized flooding
will be possible in any storm.
Severe weather should taper off by morning, with general thunder and
showers continuing, though flash flooding risks will continue
through Saturday afternoon. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms could form Saturday afternoon. Models again differ on
timing and location. Some models, like the TTU-WRF, initiate an
east/west oriented axis of showers and thunderstorms near the
EWX/CRP border, while others (the HRRR, for example) initiate the
storms further south. Flash flood risks on Saturday will be
determined by the development of this second band of showers.
Rain chances will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon and evening
as the associated low pressure moves east into the ArkLaTex area,
with most of the rain moving over the offshore waters.
A HIGH risk for rip currents will continue through Saturday night.
LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Primary change in the extended was the removal of rain chances for
Monday and Tuesday due to drier model trends and consensus from
neighboring offices. Otherwise, the overall pattern change remains
on track as an upper low departs East TX on Sunday ahead of a stout
upper ridge building throughout the Great Plains Monday and Tuesday.
However, a lingering upper trough behind the low (and perhaps a weak
cold front/light NE wind shift) should serve as another impetus for
additional storms on Sunday before PWATs dry out to 3/4" or less
early next week. By late week, models agree in shifting the ridge
axis northeast of the region which could open up an unsettled
westerly flow regime. How much this transition supports measurable
rain is too uncertain at this time, particularly given PWAT deficits
from earlier in the week, so PoPs were kept silent for now. Temps
meanwhile should hold within a couple degrees of normal most days
throughout the region.
MARINE...
Strengthening onshore flow will continue to cause some building seas
this evening. Seas could reach to 5 to 7 feet by Saturday morning. A
Small Craft Advisory is possible, though have elected to wait on
issuing due to timing issues. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected late tonight and through Saturday, before decreasing
Saturday night. Mariners should use caution if operating in
thunderstorms. Gusty winds, dangerous lightning, and quickly
changing sea states could cause hazardous conditions through
Saturday. Generally weak onshore to occasionally northeast flow
will persist through the middle of next week. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms remain possible on Sunday before high
pressure builds aloft early next week ahead of drier conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 74 84 73 88 71 / 80 80 20 20 10
Victoria 71 81 71 86 70 / 80 80 30 30 10
Laredo 73 91 75 94 73 / 70 30 10 10 10
Alice 72 88 71 91 70 / 80 60 20 20 10
Rockport 74 81 75 86 73 / 90 80 30 30 10
Cotulla 69 90 71 93 71 / 80 30 10 10 10
Kingsville 74 86 72 90 71 / 80 60 20 20 10
Navy Corpus 75 81 75 84 74 / 80 80 30 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Saturday For the following
zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
Islands...Nueces Islands.
GM...None.
&&
TE/81...SHORT TERMHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 943 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-170245- La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval- Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio- Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg- Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands- Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands- Calhoun Islands- 943 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for South Texas until 4 AM CDT. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move across South Texas tonight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threat, however a tornado can not be ruled out. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is in place for northern portions of south Texas tonight. There is a high risk of rip currents for Gulf-facing beaches tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday There is a High Risk for rip currents Saturday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday over South Texas. Heavy rainfall may occur South Texas tonight and Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of severe weather and flooding while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. Use hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-170245- Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas- Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM- 943 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the bays and nearshore waters until 4 AM CDT. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move across the region tonight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threat, however a tornado or waterspout can not be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday, with scattered thunderstorms Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of severe weather while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. Use hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx TE
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:47 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Cotulla-La Salle County Airport ASOS measured a gust to 70 mph.
Public reported shingles blown off of a home in Beeville through MPing.
Large trees were blown down by estimated 65 mph winds southwest of Orange Grove.
Public reported 1 inch diameter tree limbs were broken along with shingles blown off southeast of Orange Grove through MPing.
Public reported big tree branches blown down around Kingsville through social media.
A large tree limb was blown down in Calallen.
Flooding of roads occurred near the intersection of Staples Street and Texas Avenue in Corpus Christi.
Roads were closed due to flooding near the Leopard Street and Crosstown Expressway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 891426, 891428, 893008, 891436, 891437, 891438, 891439, 891440.