Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 30, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A rather banal forecast is in store for the next week.  WV imagery
shows a broad upper trough ejecting thru MT into Canada, while
farther SE the Gulf ridge has begun moving west, and still leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. Today looks
identical to yesterday, w/the dryline draped across the eastern
zones.  East of the dryline, dewpoints into the 70s will yield a
very unstable afternoon AMS, w/high dcapes and steep mid-lvl lapse
rates, for a continued threat of large hail/damaging winds into the
evening hours.

The ridge is forecast to make landfall in Mexico overnight, then
begin developing north into Texas over the next few days.  A weak
dryline is forecast again Wed, w/a best chances of convection over
the SE again.  Thursday, the dryline is not forecast to mix as far
east, and looks to be perhaps the best chance for rain this
forecast.  Friday, the ridge shifts into far west Texas and beyond,
and return flow/Gulf moisture surges the dryline west with it,
signifying the beginning of our faux monsoon.  This will shift the
convective focus to the higher terrain, where upslope flow will keep
at least an isolated chance of convection in play each afternoon.

For temps, models are persistent w/many locations hitting triple
digits this afternoon and Wednesday...similar to yesterday's.
Thicknesses then gradually trend downward thru Sat, but temps should
remain a few degrees above-normal throughout.  Beyond Sat, the GFS
continues the downward trend, whereas the Canadian and, to a lesser
extent, ECMWF suggest a slight warming trend.  Given the ridge
migration west, along w/moisture, warm/cool trends are going out the
window, and persistence is setting in.  That said, temps should bump
along 3-5 F above normal thru the extended.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low RH's will be between 10-15% across SE New Mexico plains and
adjacent mountains, as well as W Permian Basin and Upper Trans
Pecos. Near critical fire weather conditions today due to elevated
20 ft winds in the Guadalupe Mnts, low RH's across the area, and
high temperatures. Storms in the Lower Trans Pecos and far E Permian
Basin tonight could produce dry lightning and erratic winds. RFTI's
settling between 2-3 with ERC's in the 70th percentile have allowed
for a continuation of the RFD through the afternoon and early
evening hours for the areas mentioned above.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74 103  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       69 100  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         76  99  75  97 /  10  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 68  89  69  88 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          67  99  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          64  92  65  91 /  10  20  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           73 102  74  98 /  10  10  10  20
Odessa                         73 102  74  98 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           71 102  75 100 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

87/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-011800-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 /1157 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible trough this evening.  Any storms that do
develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty
winds, and brief, heavy rainfall. There is a marginal risk of severe
storms, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today across Southeast
New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
340 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

TXZ053-302115-
Mitchell TX-
340 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Champion Creek Reservoir, or 7 miles southeast of Colorado City,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Loraine and Champion Creek Reservoir.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 221 and 228.

LAT...LON 3212 10086 3225 10095 3250 10070 3244 10066
      3224 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 216DEG 10KT 3230 10080

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