Wildfire in Texas, June 16 to 17, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
650 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Possible MVFR conditions late in the TAF period as PROB30
groups have been added for TSRA, however cigs will likely still be
close to 10kft. If a storm moves over the terminal, maybe brief
vis restrictions will be in play. Otherwise breezy south to
southwest winds 15-25kts with gusts up to 35kts. Some wind shear
after 09z will be possible. Shear will mostly be speed, as a
south to southwest 40-45kt LLJ will be in place.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/

DISCUSSION...Tonight through Tuesday.
For tonight, surface winds will diminish due to loss of daytime
heating and associated mixing. Winds will increase again by mid
morning Wednesday as a surface trof of low pressure deepens over
eastern CO and eastern NM in response to an approaching minor
upper level shortwave trof embedded in the southwest aloft
associated with a western states trof. Moisture will continue to
slowly increase during the day Wednesday. The combination of an
unstable atmosphere, adequate moisture, and the approaching minor
perturbation will increase the threat for showers and thunderstorms
to develop across much of the area late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and inverted-V
sounding profiles, a few storms will have the potential to become
strong, with gusty winds to around 50 mph the primary hazard. The
limiting factor for more organized tstms on Wednesday afternoon
and evening will be the rather weak deep layer shear. Storms
should diminish with loss of daytime heating later Wednesday
evening.

The upper level weather pattern will become more favorable for the
potential for showers and thunderstorms across at least parts of
the area on occasion from Thursday evening through next Tuesday.
Southwest flow aloft associated with a western states trof will
likely send minor perturbations across our region at times
Thursday evening through Friday night before the upper level flow
transitions to more northwesterly later this weekend into early
next week, which will also allow additional minor upper level
shortwave trofs to traverse the area. All this coupled with enough
moisture warrants the potential for showers and tstms across at
least parts of the area Thursday evening through the end of the
extended periods. Once again, NBM pops look a bit too dry and not
far enough west at times for a few periods given the progged
pattern and have adjusted accordingly after collaboration with
surrounding offices.

02

FIRE WEATHER...This Afternoon through Wednesday.
Southwesterly flow aloft, coupled with a surface trough, has
induced low level southerly to southwesterly winds around 15 to 25
MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH at the surface. As fuels in the
northwestern Panhandles are in the 95th to 99th, critical fire
weather conditions are present due to RFTI values of 3 to 4
coupled with this level of fuel dryness. Winds should remain
elevated until around sunset, though will return Wednesday
afternoon. Increased moisture moving into the area should start to
take the edge off of fire weather conditions, along with winds
progged to be less tomorrow than today. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible again Wednesday across the northwestern
and northern Panhandles, with potential for localized critical
conditions.

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  92  66  92  65 /   0  30  40  10  20
Beaver OK                  71  97  68  94  63 /   0  10  10  10  30
Boise City OK              64  97  62  89  58 /   0   5  10   5  30
Borger TX                  70  97  69  96  67 /   0  20  30  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              67  99  66  96  64 /   0  30  30   5  20
Canyon TX                  66  92  66  92  64 /   0  30  40  10  20
Clarendon TX               67  92  68  93  68 /   0  10  20  10  30
Dalhart TX                 65  97  62  92  59 /   0  20  20   5  20
Guymon OK                  69  98  66  93  61 /   0  20  20   5  30
Hereford TX                65  95  65  94  64 /   0  40  30  10  20
Lipscomb TX                70  94  69  94  64 /   0   5  10  10  30
Pampa TX                   66  94  67  93  65 /   0  10  30  10  30
Shamrock TX                68  93  68  93  67 /   0   5  10  10  30
Wellington TX              69  94  70  95  69 /   0   5  10  10  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

89/02/98

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
759 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-171300-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
759 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms possible across northwest Texas and western
Oklahoma this evening. Lightning will be the main threat, as
storms are not expected to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and
evening across much of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few
storms may become strong, with gusty winds to around 50 mph the
primary hazard.

Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles Thursday evening through Monday. Any storms that
develop are expected to remain below severe levels at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions through 7 PM this
evening, and for elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday.