Drought in Texas, July 7 to 31, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.AVIATION...06z TAF Cycle...

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be
southerly to southeasterly and generally around 10 knots. Isolated
thunderstorms may move into the western zones this evening, with
KDHT being the most likely to see impacts. Did not include mention
in TAF at this time due to low confidence for any point location.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, isold showers and tstms over the southeast Texas
Panhandle should not impact any of the terminal sites before
dissipating later this evening. Isolated showers and tstms may
develop across the far western counties late Tuesday afternoon.
However, expected sparse coverage of precipitation precludes
mentioning this weather element at KDHT for this fcst cycle.

02

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 114 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

Current mid-level satellite analysis of water vapor shows a ridge
residing over SE NE and SW NM with weak northerly flow over the
Panhandles. Meanwhile, a closed low with a digging trough and
stronger jet flow is present off the coast of the NW CONUS. This
trough will pivot across the W CONUS over the next 48 hours,
bringing with it a Pacific front and westerlies aloft by
Wednesday.

Surface winds are out of the north this morning, but will turn to
the east southeast through the day today. High temperatures will
struggle to reach the 90s across the forecast area. Surface winds
will continue to turn and become south southeast by tomorrow.
Breezy conditions are possible in the northwest Panhandles and
with southerly winds at the surface temperatures will rise quickly
into the low to mid 90s.

Thunderstorms are possible today in the eastern half of the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles. MLCAPE values suggest there is decent
instability with values of 1000-2000 J/kg and surface dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s, however the 0-6km effective bulk shear is
less than 20 m/s which will keep storms as pulse type convection.
With such little shear and weak storm motion, storms will be sub-
severe with the main threat being gusty winds. DCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg in the northwest Panhandles and an inverted V
sounding up to 750mb hints at the potential for some stronger
bursts of winds as storms collapse. PWAT values are near 1.50
inches, which indicates that localized flash flooding could become
a threat as storm motions are slow and could become stationary at
times. Storms will not last much past sunset as there is no real
dynamical forcing to help them continue through the night.

The chance for storms returns again on tomorrow evening with a bit
of a different setup. Storms are expected to fire in the afternoon
along the mountains in NM and move east southeast in an almost
linear fashion. Plenty of buoyancy is present during the afternoon
hours along the NM/TX border, however the shear is once again
meager with values near 20 m/s. Instability begins to diminish
through the evening hours as the sun begins to set and daytime
heating is lost. However, at this time the line of storms will be
approaching the NM/TX border and a low level jet of 20-30 knots
at 850mb will also ramp up. There is a bit more dynamical forcing
as well tomorrow night as the storms will be riding along an upper
level shortwave with decent upward motion present along the line
of storms. This could be the saving grace for storms to continue
into the W TX/OK Panhandles with the main threat being gusty winds
and small hail. Models show the storms entering around 00z but
struggling to stay alive as they continue east, with storms dying
out within a few hours from reaching the NM/TX border. PWAT values
again are around 1.50 inches and storm motion will be slow with a
chance for localized flash flooding possible.

Rutt

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist during the latter
half of this week into the upcoming weekend. 590 to 592 dkm upper
high over the southern Rockies Wednesday will amplify to a 597 to
599 dkm upper high by Friday. The upper high then expected to
shift a little further east and north this weekend and approach
the Panhandles amplifying even more to around 598 to 600 dkms
Saturday. A shortwave trough expected to round the top of the
upper high across the central Rockies and Plains states Thursday
and could skirt the northeastern portions of the forecast area by
late Thursday into Thursday evening. Convection may develop
Thursday evening across the northeast Panhandles but otherwise
dry conditions will continue.

Max temps Wednesday through Sunday will approach the century mark
with the Palo Duro Canyon floor some 6 degrees hotter than KAMA.
As the upper ridge continues to amplify late this week and into
the weekend, max temps between 101 and 105 likely with the Palo
Duro Canyon floor topping out at or slightly above 110 degrees.
Will likely need at least a Heat Advisory for the Palo Duro Canyon
and possibly even other location on or off the Caprock before the
end of this week through the weekend.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

With the hot and dry conditions expected this weekend and high
temps between 101 and 110 degrees, fire weather conditions should
increase with elevated fire weather possible both days. RFTIs are
projected to be around 1 to 2 Saturday and 1 to 3 on Sunday and
ERCs in the 70th to 89th percentile both Saturday and Sunday.
Minimum afternoon relative humidity values forecast to be around
12 to 19 percent both days and 20 foot winds from the southwest
around 10 to 20 mph.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

7/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1122 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-071100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1122 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the western Panhandles late
Tuesday into Tuesday evening and also across the eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northeastern Texas Panhandle Thursday evening.
The chance for severe weather is low.

High temperatures are expected to range from 105 to 111 across
portions of the western and central Panhandles including Palo Duro
Canyon State Park Wednesday through Sunday. Heat headlines may
become necessary.

With the hot and dry conditions expected this weekend and minimum
afternoon relative humidity values near 12 to 19 percent both
Saturday and Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may be
possible. The grasses and shrubs are expected to dry out and
become receptive and 20 foot southwesterly winds increase to
around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
possible elevated fire weather conditions both Saturday and
Sunday.