Texas, 2020

Flood in Texas, February 20, 2020

February 20, 2020 · NWS FWD · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Minor flooding occurred in Anderson County after 3-4 of rain fell. Several creeks and ponds were reported out of their banks and flooding a few secondary roads and pasture land.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.

Minor flooding occurred in Anderson County after 3-4 of rain fell. Several creeks and ponds were reported out of their banks and flooding a few secondary roads and pasture land.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 20, 1:23 AM CST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 20, 1:23 AM CST, 1 hour 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
123 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/

/Today through Friday/

Rainy and dreary conditions will persist over the next 6-12 hours
for most of North and Central Texas. Thereafter, dry, but cold
conditions can be expected with clearing skies late today into the
overnight hours. Temperatures will remain a good 10 to 15 degrees
below normal thanks to a reinforcing shot of colder air expected
through the day today.

A large rain shield continues to slowly shift southward this
morning as the better ribbon of 850-700mb frontogenesis sags
southward. 1 and 3hr rain totals have been largely under 1" with
pretty modest hourly rain rates. While infiltration rates are low
(due to saturated grounds and largely dormant vegetation), we
expect that flooding should be mostly confined to low-lying and
poor drainage areas and thus the need for any Flash Flood products
appears low at this time. Additional rainfall amounts will range
between a tenth of an inch along the Red River to near or just
over three-quarters of an inch across the Brazos Valley. This
could result in the need for some flood advisories, especially
near and south of I-30 and near/east of I-35. We'll monitor any
areas of precipitation that appear more convective in nature as
they'll have a greater potential to cause some minor flood issues.
By mid-morning, I expect that most of the more concentrated rain
activity will shift down toward the Upper Texas Coast.

A reinforcing shot of colder air will spread southward as a cold
front---that currently extends from the Rolling Plains up through
southwest and central Oklahoma---slides southward through the day.
While late day clearing is expected, the magnitude of CAA will
likely keep temperatures below 50 degrees for most areas this
afternoon. Clear skies should equate to cold overnight conditions
into early Friday with a light freeze for most areas, except
south of US HWY 79 across Central Texas.

Friday won't be quite as cold for many areas as abundant sunshine
will offset the waning CAA. Still, below normal temperatures are
anticipated with highs only in the upper 40s to near 50s west of
I-35.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/

/Thursday night through next Wednesday/

Skies will start to clear out Thursday night into Friday morning as
a surface high pressure moves over our region. This will enhance
the radiational cooling, letting the overnight low temperatures
easily drop into the upper 20s across the west/north of the DFW
Metroplex, and low/mid 30s elsewhere. We will have plenty of
sunshine on Friday, but temperatures will be on the cool side.
Highs will stay mainly in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

As our friend the high pressure moves to the east over the weekend,
south flow will return and therefore, so will the moisture. The
next system is set to arrive on Sunday. Previous forecast remains
on track and no major changes were made to the rain chances. There
still some uncertainties on the timing and location of the upper
level trough and surface front. However, model guidance continues
to agree that the best lift will be across the northern part of
the Southern Plains. A few showers may develop Saturday night
mainly along the Red River, but the best coverage if any will be
on Sunday, especially east of the I-35/35W. There are a couple
limiting factors that continue to work against the development of
widespread showers and storms in our area. First, there will be
some capping in place and second, the lack of decent instability.
We're keeping out the mention of storms in the forecast, but we
can't rule out a few lightning strikes. Trends will be monitored
as we get close to this time period.

A warming trend is also expected over the weekend. By Sunday,
high temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s east of the
I-35/35W and upper 60s to near 70 degrees west of the I-35/35W.
This will be short-lived, as we stay near normal on Monday and
Tuesday with lots of sunshine. Looking ahead, it looks like we
will have another system approaching North and Central TX by mid-
week. Confidence is too low to introduce any rain chances, but we
will likely see temperatures dropping into the 50s.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/

/06 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Ceiling trends and cessation of SHRA.

A mix of IFR/MVFR cigs continue to blanket TAF sites, but
improvement appears to be underway at Metroplex TAFs. Drier air
will gradually ease southward resulting in a lifting of cloud
bases. I'll advertise at least intermittent IFR at Metroplex TAFs,
but it's quite possible that this is too pessimistic and an
amendment to remove IFR all together prior to 9Z may be required.
RA/SHRA will continue through the pre-dawn hours. As the column
dries and the better ascent shifts southward, I expect that this
will come to an abrupt end. Substantial vsby reductions due to
RA/SHRA are no longer expected at D10 sites, so I'll advertise
VFR vsby. East winds will be temporary and during the morning
push, I expect that north flow operations will still be required
as FROPA ushers in cooler and a stiff north wind between 10 and 15
knots. VFR is probable by noon--- possibly sooner---with CAVU
likely this evening.

For Waco...IFR will persist through at least late morning, though
if trends persist the end time may need to be adjusted a few hours
ahead of what is indicated in the current TAF. RA/SHRA may pose a
greater potential to reduce vsby periodically down close to the
LIFR category over the next several hours. After the noontime
hour, I expect that flying conditions will improve substantially
with VFR toward sunset Thursday.

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    47  31  50  37  56 /  40   0   0   0   0
Waco                48  32  53  35  57 /  70   0   0   0   0
Paris               47  28  49  32  52 /  40   0   0   0   5
Denton              46  29  51  37  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            47  29  48  35  54 /  30   0   0   0   5
Dallas              48  31  50  37  57 /  40   0   0   0   0
Terrell             48  30  48  34  54 /  60   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  32  49  35  57 /  70   0   0   0   0
Temple              47  33  53  35  58 /  70   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       46  28  52  36  58 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

24/91
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 20, 12:20 AM CST, 2 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-210630-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Moderate to heavy rain is expected tonight, especially across Central
Texas. Given the already saturated soils, minor flooding of low-
lying and poor drainage areas will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Bain

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Anderson

When
February 20, 3:00 AM CST to 12:00 PM CST
Where
Anderson County, 0.84 mi NW of Frankston to 0.89 mi E of Slocum
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Other Federal Agency
Coordinates
32.059, -95.509

Minor flooding occurred in Anderson County after 3-4 of rain fell. Several creeks and ponds were reported out of their banks and flooding a few secondary roads and pasture land.

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2020

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 877298.