NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 5:41 AM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 12, 5:41 AM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Forecast has been updated to speed up the back edge of the large
precipitation shield currently moving across the region. The
latest round of high-res guidance that has come in now suggests
that precipitation should exit the Fort Hood area during the next
few hours, the Metroplex by early afternoon, and our northeastern
counties by late afternoon. Given rain rates of a pretty steady
0.25"/hr per Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor QPE and gauges, still looks
like areas along and east of I-35 could pick up close to another
inch before all is said and done. Despite the persistent steady
rainfall, we have received little in the way of flood reports.
That being said, the morning commute will be quite wet, and
drivers are urged to exercise caution on the wet roadways, and
allow extra travel time this morning.
After the rain clears out this afternoon, skies should clear from
southwest to northeast, giving way to a mostly clear and cold
night.
Godwin
Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday night/
Showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, are making their way
across much of the CWA this evening. Widespread coverage should
continue through the rest of the night as a mid-tropospheric
trough over the western CONUS makes its way eastward. Latest HREF
probability matched mean QPF now pegs the corridor from roughly
Killeen to Corsicana to Canton for the heaviest rainfall
accumulations, which is a little north of previous runs. Areas
along and near this line will likely pick up another 1-2 inches of
rain during the overnight hours. Indeed, the Fort Hood WSR-88D
shows the heaviest reflectivity over these areas as of this
writing. Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE products suggest
that the heaviest rain rates are around or a little above
0.25"/hr. These rain rates (along with drought conditions over the
past few months) should preclude a higher-end threat for
flooding. Still, we will need to monitor for any training of
heavier precipitation cores, which could lead to some flooding in
low- lying areas, or other flood- prone spots.
Rain showers should continue into the day Wednesday, but should
clear from southwest to northeast as the surface low (presently
along the Middle Texas Coast) lifts northeast, and drier air works
in behind the low. Precipitation should end in the Killeen/Temple
area by mid-morning, Waco by noon, the Metroplex by mid-afternoon,
and the remainder of our CWA by evening. Skies will clear fairly
rapidly following the end of rainfall, with a mostly clear night
expected past midnight Thursday morning.
Look for cool and quiet conditions overnight Wednesday, with lows
forecast to fall into the 30s across most of the CWA. A light
freeze appears probable north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metropolitan Area. Winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph
however, dropping wind chills into the 20s for most locations.
Godwin
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 325 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020/
/Thursday Through the Middle of Next Week/
After four full days of dreary weather, the sun will makes its
long-awaited return Thursday. Despite the brilliant sunshine at
daybreak, biting north winds will remind us all that it's still
winter. Even with the passage of the mid-level trough responsible
for our rainy weather, the upper flow will remain southwesterly,
and a batch of cirrus may sweep across the region Thursday
afternoon. In any event, the low-level cold advection will offset
what warmth the sun may want to provide, and high temperatures
will stall in the 40s. With mostly clear skies, lighter winds, and
dew points plunging into the teens and 20s, a widespread/prolonged
freeze is likely Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures
should dip into the low to mid 20s across our northern and western
zones. If the winds sufficiently subside, the bone-dry air may
allow a few isolated, low-lying spots to fall into the teens.
South winds will return on Friday, beginning a warming trend that
will add about 10 degrees to high temperatures each day through
the upcoming weekend. But as a new low deepens off Baja, a
strengthening subtropical jet downstream will gradually increase
our cloud cover. Initially, this will only be mid/high clouds on
Saturday, but as Gulf moisture surges inland, the clouds will
steadily thicken on Sunday with rain chances returning.
Precipitable water values will soar and, thanks to a considerable
contribution from the boundary layer, may approach record levels
for February by late Monday. With soils still wet from the
previous event, this may enhance the flooding potential as a cold
front approaches. Although this front Monday night would remove
the boundary layer moisture component, the persistent southwest
flow aloft will promote overrunning rains that may linger into the
middle of next week.
25
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
Concerns -- SHRA ending during next several hours. CIGs/vsby
improving this afternoon.
Despite several Metroplex METAR sites continuing to report MVFR
CIGs, FEW-SCT clouds are being reported AOB 1,000 ft. We will
continue to see poor flying conditions through the morning as
bouts of moderate to heavy RA move through, keeping vsby 2-3 SM.
SHRA will end from southwest to northeast through the next several
hours. Following the end of precip, CIGs will lift gradually,
with all sites likely to be VFR by evening.
Godwin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 34 46 29 51 / 100 5 0 0 0
Waco 56 36 48 28 53 / 90 0 0 0 0
Paris 51 33 44 27 48 / 100 0 0 0 0
Denton 49 31 45 27 51 / 100 0 0 0 0
McKinney 50 33 44 27 50 / 100 0 0 0 0
Dallas 52 35 46 29 51 / 100 5 0 0 0
Terrell 53 35 46 28 51 / 100 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 53 37 47 30 52 / 100 0 0 0 0
Temple 57 36 50 29 54 / 80 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 51 33 45 24 51 / 100 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
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