Texas, 2020Drought in Texas, August 11 to 31, 2020
August 11 to 31, 2020 · NWS FWD · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
Severe drought conditions developed across parts of Central Texas.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Severe drought conditions developed across parts of Central Texas.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 10, 11:10 PM CST, 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 11:10 PM CST, 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1210 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/
A shortwave trough ignited an area of showers and thunderstorms
across the Southern Plains Monday afternoon, and this activity
continues to push east-southeast across Oklahoma and Northwest
Texas tonight. Activity has been mostly undercut by an outflow
boundary, which extended from Oklahoma City to Vernon to near
Lubbock around midnight. This boundary will produce a brief shift
to northwest winds across the northwest zones during the
overnight hours. It should eventually be overcome by the strong
southerly low level flow and will likely stall prior to daybreak
Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the boundary
is not out of the question, and have added slight chance POPs for
areas roughly along and north of a Graham to Paris line for the
rest of the night. Subsidence associated with a strong ridge
should suppress additional development farther south. One issue
that will need to be monitored is an ongoing wildfire along the
Jack/Palo Pinto County line, which would be affected by the wind
shift if the outflow reaches far enough south, so will be keeping
a close eye on that for the rest of the night.
Precipitation along/north of the Red River will abate Tuesday
morning as the low level jet mixes out. However, additional
showers and storms will be possible later in the day through
Tuesday evening across the northeast counties as the shortwave
drops southeast through the Arklatex region. Chance to slight
chance POPs will hence be in place during the afternoon and
evening hours for areas northeast of the DFW Metroplex. Severe
weather is unlikely, though 3000 J/KG of MUCAPE will open the door
for a few strong storms with gusty winds.
Hot and breezy weather will persist for the rest of the forecast
area through Wednesday. Elevated fire weather conditions will be
in place each afternoon west of I-35 where minimum RH values dip
below 30 percent. Heat index readings will start to climb to or
above 105, especially starting Wednesday. Will likely hold off on
a Heat Advisory today, but may need to look at issuing one
starting Wednesday.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 257 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/
/Wednesday Onward/
Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist through the rest of the
week. The upper ridge will gradually shift westward through this
time period, and become repositioned across the Desert Southwest
by Thursday. In the meantime, occasional shortwaves will ripple
across the northern fringes of the ridge, leading to showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Central Plains. This activity
is expected to remain displaced north of the forecast area. Highs
will be a few degrees above normal in the upper 90s to around 102
out west. Heat index values will climb into the 102-107 degree
range each afternoon, especially across our east/southeast zones
where dewpoints will mix out the least. This may necessitate a
Heat Advisory for most or all of the CWA later in the week.
Otherwise, elevated fire danger will continue west of I-35 due to
low humidity and a steady south breeze in an area with ample cured
fuels.
For the end of the week and into the weekend, the operational GFS
is a significantly wet outlier compared to most of the GEFS
members and European solutions. It appears to be suffering from
some convective feedback issues, spilling upstream convection into
North Texas both Friday and Saturday. Ensemble and statistical
guidance, however, support a dry forecast with the ridge holding
strong through the first half of the weekend. As a result, have
maintained a dry forecast during this time period.
By Sunday, enough of a westward shift of the 500mb ridge and
stronger disturbances within north flow aloft could actually allow
some rain chances to return late in the day or perhaps into
Monday. In addition, some attendant cloud cover and the lower
heights aloft should shave a few degrees off high temperatures
heading into early next week. There's even a small chance that a
weak front may drift far enough south to turn our winds to the
north next Monday, although this remains uncertain given it's a
day 8 forecast.
-Stalley
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
VFR and continued breezy conditions with southerly winds can be
expected area-wide for the next 36 hours. Will keep an eye on
ceilings across Central Texas, where an MVFR deck may get close
to the Waco area around daybreak Tuesday. For now, will keep a
SCT layer at KACT for Tuesday morning, with higher sky coverage
likely staying southeast of the airport.
TS will be possible for northeast portions of DFW TRACON Tuesday
afternoon. At this time, it appears storms will remain northeast
of the DFW Metroplex airports.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 79 100 80 / 5 5 5 0 0
Waco 79 101 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 77 96 73 97 76 / 10 30 20 5 5
Denton 79 99 77 99 80 / 10 5 10 0 0
McKinney 79 100 76 100 79 / 5 5 10 0 0
Dallas 81 100 80 100 80 / 5 5 10 0 0
Terrell 79 100 77 99 77 / 0 5 10 0 0
Corsicana 78 100 77 97 77 / 0 0 5 0 0
Temple 77 100 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 78 100 77 101 77 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
30/91
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 10, 10:31 PM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1131 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-120430-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1131 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There is a slight chance of storms overnight north of a line from
Graham to Paris. A few storms may contain gusty winds. Severe
weather is not expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Heat index values will range between 100-108 Wednesday through Friday
across most of the area. Take the necessary precautions to avoid heat-
related illness.
There is a slight chance of storms northeast of a line from
Gainesville to Canton Tuesday and Tuesday night. Severe weather is
not expected.
The threat for wildfires will remain elevated west of the I-
35 corridor through the week due to hot, dry and breezy conditions.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Drought, Bell
- When
- August 11, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- Bell forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.038, -97.478 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe drought conditions developed across parts of the county during the second week of August and continued through the end of the month.
Drought, Milam
- When
- August 11, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- Milam forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 30.786, -96.977 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe drought conditions developed across most of the county during the second week of August and continued through the end of the month.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Rip Current in Michigan, August 11, 20201 death · 1 event
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, August 11 to 13, 2020$57,000 · 50 kt wind · 8 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, August 11 to 12, 2020$40,000 · 1 in hail · 13 events
- Damaging Wind and Lightning Strikes in Florida, August 11, 2020$60,000 · 52 kt wind · 3 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, August 11, 2020$35,000 · 1 in hail · 8 events
- Damaging Winds in Vermont, August 11, 2020$45,000 · 50 kt wind · 2 events
- Flash Flooding in New York, August 11, 2020$35,000 · 3 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, August 11 to 14, 2020$20,000 · 61 kt wind · 12 events
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Florida, August 11, 2020$14,000 · 55 kt wind · 10 events
- Damaging Winds in New York, August 11, 2020$15,000 · 50 kt wind · 3 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, August 11 to 12, 2020$1,000 · 68 kt wind · 10 events
- Drought in Utah, August 11 to 31, 20207 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 917279, 917280.