Very warm temperatures and surface convergence along the edge of the caprock allowed for isolated thunderstorms to develop and move southward across the southern Rolling Plains. Ample instability upwards of 1500 J/kg were able to produce vigorous updrafts.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Very warm temperatures and surface convergence along the edge of the caprock allowed for isolated thunderstorms to develop and move southward across the southern Rolling Plains. Ample instability upwards of 1500 J/kg were able to produce vigorous updrafts. One of these storms became severe as it moved over Lake Alan Henry (Garza County) producing a wind gust to 58 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 1:11 PM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 211 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 .SHORT TERM... Persistent northerly flow will continue for the next 24 hours. WV Imagery shows the leading edge of a jet max entering the region with the favorable left front quadrant over the eastern half of the CWFA. Surface analysis shows a pooling of higher theta-e air from LBB-PVW eastward and this is where we have seen a cumulus field expand and intensify. While bulk shear values have increased over the past few days, forecast soundings do show some challenges for free convection. Still, it is possible that some storms could realize upward of 1500J/kg of CAPE with ~0.1 NCAPE. Surface wind fields remain quite light and so there is little surface based forcing. Presently, with several degrees of heating remaining, chances are pretty good that we'll see a few storms pop up later this afternoon despite the models almost universally keeping the area dry. Activity should wane after the loss of daytime heating. Then, the focus shifts further west as storms, which initially should form across the Raton Mesa and adjacent portions of the Sangre de Cristo range. These storms look to remain across the Pecos Valley well west of the CWFA though, as we've seen for several days, there is a chance that some of the activity could bleed over the state line. However, the bulk of the activity should remain well west of the area. On Sunday, winds should become more southerly focused in the climatological 10-15 mph range. At present, it appears that the day should remain mostly dry until a Panhandle MCS moves into the region. .LONG TERM... Upper ridge to flatten by mid week as significant shortwave trough moves from British Columbia Monday into the Upper Midwest by Thursday. Although convection should decrease in coverage later in week, likely to still see some monsoonal moisture working around the northwest side of the ridge...keeping some pops in our northern and northwestern zones, however even this activity will likely diminish in coverage as ridge becomes more dominant. Temperatures will definitely be on the upswing. Upper 90s to 102 will be common in the Tuesday through Friday time frame. Heights are forecast to rise into next weekend with 500 mb heights reaching 595 dm next Saturday thus Pops to decrease further. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 06/26
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 426 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 TXZ021>044-020930- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 426 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the Southern South and Rolling Plains. Brief heavy rain and strong downdraft winds to 60 mph will be possible with any storm that develops. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday late Sunday into early Monday for areas mainly on the Caprock.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:13 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Lake Alan Henry measured a wind gust to 58 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 904712, 904713.