Drought in Texas, August 1 to 31, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1243 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to continue through this TAF period. Area
of showers and thunderstorms continue to drift south near the
Texas/New Mexico state line however, this activity will stay west
of the main terminals. These storms would be capable of brief
heavy rain and gusty surface winds. /WCI

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/

SHORT TERM...
The upper level flow regime is just west of northerly across the
region this afternoon with a high centered over AZ and a trough
moving into the Midwestern states.  A few ripples in the mean flow
are progged to approach the region over the next 24 hours.  Guidance
has not handled the persistent shower activity across our
southwestern zones though it appears that the backbuilding evident
all morning is finally ceasing.  WV indicates an area of lift coming
out of the Colorado Rockies early this afternoon and this is
expected to help fire convection across eastern NM as the afternoon
and evening progresses.  In time, a decent complex should develop
though given the mean wind and location of lift, indications
presently suggest most of the activity will remain on the NM side of
the state line.  What makes it into Texas should generally remain
below severe limits.  Winds tonight appear to swing around to the
southeast before resuming a ENERLY component on Saturday.  This
upslope flow could help trigger a storm or two across the area
though confidence remains below mentionable thresholds ATTM.  More
storms are expected across ERN NM during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures on Saturday should ramp up a notch to near seasonal
norms.

LONG TERM...
The upper-level ridge will continue to amplify over the weekend, in
response to an upper-level trough shifting eastward and a vigorous
low pivoting into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge axis is forecast
to extend poleward through the Intermountain West and into southern
Alberta, with northwest-to-northerly mid- and upper-level flow
overspreading the forecast area. A series of several shortwave
perturbations will rotate over the top of the ridge axis and
downstream towards the CWA, resulting in multiple chances for
convection Saturday night and Sunday night.

On Saturday night, convective potential should be more confined to
the Texas/New Mexico state line as the associated mid-level
perturbation should be weak while coinciding with northerly steering
flow. The steering flow aloft should shift to the northwest heading
into Sunday as the ridge axis drifts westward. This will result in
better chances for scattered to possibly even widespread convection,
potentially in the form of a Mesoscale Convective System, as a more
robust shortwave perturbation rotates over the western High Plains
overnight Sunday. The MCS will be accompanied by a cold front, which
will move through the region early Monday morning and cooling off
temperatures in its wake. Monday will be the "coolest" day of the
week before temperatures climb back into the mid-90s.

The CWA will be under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft
through the middle of next week, with the potential for a few
weak shortwaves to rotate over West Texas. Therefore, isolated
thunderstorm potential exists each evening mainly for the western
areas Tuesday through Thursday.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

58/26/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
336 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

TXZ021>044-010845-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
336 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday late
Sunday into early Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.