Drought in Texas, April 7 to 30, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1247 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

..06z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Surface observations at 05z show cigs/vis beginning
to drop across Deep South Texas, with a mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR
conditions. Still anticipate cigs and vis to drop into the
IFR/LIFR levels through the night and into the early morning hours
Tuesday. Conditions should begin to improve by 14-15z as the sun
rises and low level mixing occurs. Widespread VFR conditions are
expected around 18z, with light to moderate southeast winds
through the day. Low ceilings may develop again late Tuesday
night, although confidence remains low on timing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 827 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Expect ceilings and vsbys to drop steadily throughout
tonight as the 00Z BRO sounding shows a pretty moist atms evident
below the 800 mb level. Short term numerical guidance point
towards pretty widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings across much of the
region. Guidance also shows a pretty strong signal for reduced
vsbys mainly across the eastern counties throughout the night. The
low ceilings/vsbys will steadily improve on Tues morning as the
daytime heating increases the low level mixing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): A warm front currently
moving northward across deep south Texas may generate an isolated
shower or thunderstorm through early this evening. Otherwise,
temperatures will continue to warm through late afternoon as winds
become more southeast and clouds mix out. Will maintain a slight
chance of pops across the northwestern portions of the CWA tonight
as some convection across the higher terrain of Mexico may cross
the Rio Grande River. Light winds and ample low level moisture
will support patchy fog, some locally dense, late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Mid level ridging centered over the Yucatan
Peninsula will maintain above normal temperatures through the
period. Overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the
lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Tuesday will be very warm
with high temperatures ranging from the 80s near the coast to the
mid to upper 90s inland. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms will continue across the northwest portions of the
CWA on Tuesday. Patchy fog will be possible again Tuesday night,
especially near the coast.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Broad mid level ridging
over the CONUS will hold up early in the week with a cut off low
over the West Coast. The low will dig south along the West Coast
on Tuesday and will start to move into the Desert Southwest on
Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS start to differ with the evolution of
the low at this point, but a general theme can be deduced.
According to the GFS, an initial surge of Plains high pressure
will slip past the stagnant upper low to arrive in deep South
Texas and the RGV late Thursday to early Friday. This will
increase convective chances as early as Wednesday night. High
pressure will settle over the area on Friday into Saturday as one
piece of upper energy shears out over the Plains while a second
energy center stays back and deepens over the Baja area. This low
latitude center will lift east on Saturday as another surge of
high pressure dives south from Canada. The low will lift over
Texas Sunday night as cold air simultaneously surges south,
bringing a strong cold front through Monday morning. The ECMWF is
in fair agreement with the first half of the above scenario, but
accelerates the second part, bringing the second surge to the
coast 24 hours earlier, that is Sunday morning. In both cases
guidance does decrease temperatures somewhat, but only modestly
so, such that overall values do not decrease below normal. Kept
thunder in with the persistent southwest flow aloft. Rain chances
should end pretty quickly after the last surge, in both scenarios,
with a punch of drier air arriving from upstream.

MARINE:
Now through Tuesday Night...Buoy 42020 reported east- southeast
winds around 6 kts with gusts of around 8 kts and seas of 4 to 5
feet at 1340 CDT/1840 UTC. A weak pressure gradient will support
light winds and low to moderate seas through the period. Patchy
fog will be possible tonight and again Tuesday night but dense fog
is not anticipated.

Wednesday through Saturday night...Light to moderate southeast
winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through the first part
of the period. A weak front is due on Thursday into Friday, with
a shift to stronger northeast winds and building seas in its wake
through Friday night. Small craft should exercise caution to low
end small craft advisory conditions will be possible. A stronger
push of high pressure will arrive Saturday night into Sunday in
one scenario, or Sunday night in another. Small craft advisory
conditions appear more probable with the second push of high
pressure, but timing differences have resulted in less extreme
conditions in the model blend used for the forecast.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Aviation...Mejia-67

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
448 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-071200-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-
Southern Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-
Coastal Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
448 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

Areas of fog will be possible late tonight mainly near the lower
Texas Coastline.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-071200-
Laguna Madre from the Port of
Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-Laguna Madre from the Arroyo
Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX-Laguna Madre from 5 nm
north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-Coastal waters from Port
Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-Coastal waters from Baffin Bay
to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio
Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port
Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm-
448 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of fog will be possible late tonight mainly across the lower
Texas Bay and Gulf waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.