Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain during the early morning hours as a low pressure system moved through the Ohio Valley.
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The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain during the early morning hours as a low pressure system moved through the Ohio Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 4:25 AM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 425 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Showers with embedded thunderstorms continue this morning before exiting the area by Tuesday evening. Winds increase during the afternoon as cooler air begins to move into the region. High pressure will then briefly move into the region Tuesday night ahead of the next low pressure and cold front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1004 mb low pressure currently located over the mid and lower Ohio Valley gradually moves northeast along a stalled frontal boundary during the morning hours with showers and embedded thunderstorms exiting to the east. However, as precipitation clears, rain chances are not removed from the forecast as the frontal boundary is still positioned over western portions of the area. By late morning to early afternoon, the cold front eventually starts to shift eastward as mid-level trough pushes through. Will likely see a line of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms develop along the front during the late morning and early afternoon with the best chance of seeing thunder across the east where 500-750 j/kg of CAPE exists. Surface CAPE increases due to a surge of mid to upper 50s dewpoints within strengthening southwesterly flow. Precipitation associated with the front quickly shifts east, clearing by late afternoon. Behind the front, gusty winds develop for the afternoon and evening hours with sounding techniques indicating wind gusts ranging between 27-33 knots for a few hours. Despite the initial front clearing moisture, a potent mid-level shortwave provides another chance for rain showers late this afternoon and evening primarily across the north and east. Can't rule out some small hail in the heaviest as forecast soundings indicate an area of instability due to very steep low level lapse rates. Temperatures still in the 50s across the south and mid to upper 40s in the north this morning. Throughout the day, temperatures change very little except in the southeast where southerly flow helps push temperatures toward the lower 60s. If more efficient clearing occurs ahead of the front, upper 50s and lower 60s may push as far northwest as Wilmington and Columbus before the front moves through. Behind the front tonight, temperatures cool into the 30s by Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... Brief period featuring surface high pressure during the early morning hours as another shortwave pushes into the Great Lakes region. Weak low pressure diving into the lower Great Lakes contains enough lift to include slight chance of rain/snow showers for the north during the first half of the day. Expect another round of gusty winds in the afternoon as the low pressure exits to the northeast. Low level clouds clear but are followed by a shield of upper level clouds from the south associated with an area of low pressure well to the south. Chilly temperatures during the morning hours quickly warm into the upper 40s to near 60 along the south as southwesterly flow increases with the low pressure to the north. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Extended period begins with a quick moving s/w just east of the region. A high pressure system will build in behind the s/w Wednesday night. Models continue trend a storm system in the southern stream to the south, so kept Thursday dry. Highs for Thursday will be in the lower to mid 50s. Extended models continue to be in good agreement in bringing an amplifying s/w and surface low through the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation is forecast to develop along a cold front associated with the surface low. Ptype will start as rain, but will mix with or chance to snow by Friday morning. The H5 s/w closes off on Friday over the northeast U.S. deepening the surface low. Northerly CAA at H8 will steepen lapse rates keeping pcpn chances over the region. As diurnal heating develops on Friday ptype should change the pcpn to mostly rain. Highs on Friday will be cooler only recovering into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Large high pressure system will build in for the weekend, bringing dry weather. Saturday will start off cold with lows in the mid 20s. Highs will reach the 40s in the afternoon. Sunday will be warmer with highs back into the mid to upper 50s. Sunday night into Monday next storm system starts to develop in the plains. GFS is the quickest in racing chance of rain into northwest Ohio. The ECMWF and CMC are slower with the moisture return. As expected at the end of the extended there are large differences in the strength and timing the system. Kept PoPs at chance for now. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06Z TAF update...As expected, current observations are showing a myriad of ceilings and visibility readings this evening. Isolated thunderstorm currently over KDAY is one of a few discrete storms that are, at times, producing small hail. Overall thunderstorm activity remains limited so only included TEMPO group for KDAY at this time. VCTS everywhere else. Rain showers and thunderstorm coverage will increase of the next few hours as an area of low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Majority of the forecast remains unchanged besides adding a line showing skies clearing during the evening on Tuesday. Prev Discussion from 00Z TAF issuance... Low pressure over south central Missouri this evening will move northeast along a frontal boundary into southwest Ohio overnight. This low seems to be a little more energetic than previous forecast due to upper level support from an embedded disturbance aloft and a fairly decent 850 mb low level jet feeding moisture/ascent into it. For this evening, low clouds and some areas of drizzle will occur across the northern terminals where conditions will range between IFR/LIFR. KCVG/KLUK will temporarily see MVFR ceilings and VFR visibilities. For the overnight period, showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage to our southwest, which will move northeast across the terminals. Best chance of thunder is slated for the south, although thunder can not be ruled out farther north. VCTS/CB have been added to the southern terminals. Will monitor trends as amendments may be necessary if coverage of thunder becomes more than expected. Aviators can expect IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities in showers, storms, and associated locally moderate to heavy rainfall. On Tuesday, the embedded disturbance will move northeast, and its associated surface low will move northeast as well. This will pull the bulk of the precipitation east. However, the frontal boundary will then move east as a cold front, which could reactive some scattered shower activity across the east before moving out of the area. IFR/MVFR conditions will gradually improve to VFR by the afternoon hours as drier air works in and ceilings lift in the developing CAA pattern. The pressure gradient will increase and with CAA/diurnal mixing, it will become breezy to locally windy. Winds will gust at least between 25 and 30 knots in the afternoon from the west. By late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, another disturbance will rotate east across the southern Great Lakes with a weak surface trof extending south across the northern forecast area. This feature will have some lingering clouds, and perhaps a stray shower with it. Winds will gradually diminish between 00Z and 06Z Wednesday. Brief surface ridging and clearing skies are expected by 06Z Wednesday before the next system quickly moves into the region from the northwest by Wednesday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday night into Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...McGinnis NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...McGinnis
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 512 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-041015- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 512 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
105 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM HAIL 4 NE ENGLEWOOD 39.90N 84.26W
03/03/2020 E0.50 INCH MONTGOMERY OH TRAINED SPOTTER
ABOUT ONE MINUTE OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH HAIL.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water was covering the right lane of U.S. Route 35 at James McGee Boulevard.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 871084.