A vigorous shortwave and associated upper low lumbered east over the forecast area and into Ohio during the day. The front pushes into central OH by 19z allowing a short period where storms occured along and east of I-69.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A vigorous shortwave and associated upper low lumbered east over the forecast area and into Ohio during the day. The front pushes into central OH by 19z allowing a short period where storms occured along and east of I-69. There was a low (non-zero) risk of severe weather with damaging winds and heavy rain between 15-19z.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 10:42 AM EST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1142 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Showers and thunderstorms, that may provide gusty winds and heavy rain, move out of the area this afternoon. Highs today will be able to rise into the mid to upper 80s, warmest east of I-69. The weekend is expected to be cooler, with highs rising into the low to mid 80s, but still humid. A shower or thunderstorms is possible later Saturday into Saturday night. Another warm up is possible by the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Forecast remains on track with minor adjustments made to account for ongoing trends. Initial round of convection has fired along the Pacific front east of I-69 with a few embedded stronger cells. MLCAPE ahead of the front has managed to rise into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, and the shortwave over the area has allowed for much better shear than has been seen over the past several days. There will remain a chance for strong to marginally severe storms into the afternoon hours; primarily east of I-69. Damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall remain the primary hazard, and can't rule out some hail up to quarter size given the better shear. Re-enforcing shot of cooler air/lower dewpoints is still over SW WI/NE IA and should start to move into the area later this afternoon. CAMs are not overly excited with development as this pushes through, but will leave some lingering POPs for now. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The vigorous shortwave and associated upper low lumbers on east over the forecast area and into Ohio during the day today. The low level theta-e gradient associated with the cold front is around US-31 and US-15 around 15z with CAMs showing simulated reflectivity along I-69 at that time and when the convective temperature becomes realized. The front pushes into central OH by 19z allowing a short period where storms could occur along and east of I-69. CAMs show SBCAPE rises to between 2500 and 3000 J/kg between I-69 and the eastern edge of our forecast area. Effective shear may have pockets of areas above 30 kts, but the majority stays weaker, between 20 and 30 kts and mostly perpendicular to the front. CAMs guidance continues to fire at least weak cells along the front before 12z Friday as it swings into IN. Putting all of this together, feel that showers and a few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday before storms are able to tap into instability around 15z along and east of I-69. Around 19- 20z, they continue east into central OH and are out of the area. There is a low (non-zero) risk of severe weather with damaging winds and heavy rain as the main threats, but some hail cannot be ruled out between that 15-19z time period before it scoots out of here. Onto Friday's temperatures. The warmest temperatures will be out in front of the cold front before it swings through so I-69 and east have the potential to rise into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with dew points around 70 degrees leading to heat indices in the 90s. CAA begins to come in behind the front around midday entering our west at that time likely cutting the warming trend in those areas in the low to mid 80s before remaining stead or slowly dropping off in the afternoon. This keeps heat indices in the upper 80s at most for areas west of I-69. So, at the very least, it'll feel humid, but slightly cooler. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The pattern for this long term period starts out as a trough east- ridge west and evolves back into a ridge east, trough west pattern. This means that while we have a brief reprieve from the higher heat this weekend, another chance for higher heat comes back in the mid part of the upcoming work week as the subtropical ridge builds back into the Gulf States. For this weekend, a period of northwest flow allows for cooler high temperatures below 90F, though dew points still stay in the mid to upper 60s. With the cooler air moving in, mixing heights are expected to be higher with some gusty winds to 25 mph possible especially east of US-31 and north of US-30 on Saturday. Also can't rule out a period of initially diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms just before sunset Saturday ahead of a PV anomaly and with some shear and instability to work with. Should all of the ingredients line up, perhaps there could some severe weather, but confidence of it happening is low with models still not showing continuity with this system yet. Models also collocate this with an area of 6-7 C/km mid level lapse rates so that would allow for some potential to continue into the overnight. Early indications place it south of US-30 as it sideswipes our southwest though that location could change because systems like this have the potential to dive farther south than models show. Behind this system, weaker low level jet speeds and lower mixing heights contribute to lower wind gusts Sunday though a bit of a breeze to 20 mph is also possible on Sunday. The next low pressure system approaches from the Plains later Tuesday and it pushes a warm front through allowing Wednesday to be warmer, likely back into the low 90s, and for a resurgence of humid air. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through through the morning near SBN, and into mid-afternoon near FWA as a low pressure trough swings through the region. Conditions will generally remain VFR, but could briefly drop to MVFR in heavier rain. As the accompanying cold front passes winds will increase and shift to the west-northwest, with gusts up to 25 kts. There could be gusts 35-40 kts in thunderstorms. It's too difficult to time when exact storm cells will move over the terminals, so handled with VCTS and Tempos for the rain this morning. Skies may clear late in the period behind the low. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && UPDATE...CM SYNOPSIS...Roller SHORT TERM...Roller LONG TERM...Roller AVIATION...Cobb Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 INZ004>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-032-MIZ078>080-110930- St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall- Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington- Grant-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch- 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 /427 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon today. Gusty winds and heavy rain is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible later Saturday into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of strong wind gusts or wind damage will be appreciated. INZ007-009-018-026-027-033-034-MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024- 025-110930- Steuben-De Kalb-Allen IN-Wells-Adams-Blackford-Jay-Hillsdale- Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms from late morning into mid afternoon today. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe with with gusty winds and heavy rain the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible later Saturday into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of strong wind gusts or wind damage will be appreciated. INZ003-MIZ077-110930- La Porte-Berrien- 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 /427 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/ ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. There is high swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches along Berrien and La Porte counties Friday afternoon through Friday night. Dangerous waves and currents are expected. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms through early Friday afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms later Saturday into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LMZ043-046-110930- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms through early Friday afternoon. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Small Craft Advisory. Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected Friday into Friday night. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms later Saturday into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
943 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
MIZ081-OHZ001-101415-
Hillsdale-Williams-
943 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HILLSDALE AND
NORTHERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES...
At 942 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Montpelier, moving northeast at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Montpelier, Hudson, Pioneer, Holiday City, Pittsford, Ransom,
Waldron, Prattville, Alvordton, Bridgewater Center, Frontier, Nettle
Lake, Lake Seneca, Shadyside, Betzer and Kunkle.
This includes Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 5 and 17.
&&
LAT...LON 4173 8436 4170 8437 4170 8440 4166 8440
4162 8442 4154 8469 4173 8477 4192 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 238DEG 24KT 4165 8470
HAIL...0.25
WIND...40MPH
MCSSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1101 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 OHZ002-101515- Fulton- 1101 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY... At 1101 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Morenci, moving east at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Lyons, Oakshade, Denson and Seward. && LAT...LON 4164 8400 4162 8422 4171 8427 4172 8399 TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 262DEG 19KT 4169 8419 HAIL...0.50IN WIND...40MPH MCS
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1108 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 OHZ004-015-016-024-101545- Putnam-Defiance-Van Wert-Paulding- 1108 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM... SOUTHEASTERN DEFIANCE...PAULDING AND NORTHEASTERN VAN WERT COUNTIES... At 1108 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of Convoy, or 9 miles north of Van Wert, moving east at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Defiance, Paulding, Antwerp, Continental, Ottoville, Oakwood, Grover Hill, Dupont, Scott, Melrose, Haviland, Latty, Cloverdale, Broughton, Wetzel, Worstville, Arthur, Charloe, Tipton and Ayersville. && LAT...LON 4088 8466 4118 8472 4127 8428 4094 8425 TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 261DEG 17KT 4100 8461 HAIL...0.25IN WIND...40MPH MCS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1133 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
OHZ001-004-101600-
Defiance-Williams-
1133 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DEFIANCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES...
At 1133 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bryan, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bryan, West Unity, Stryker, Pulaski, Ney and Evansport.
&&
LAT...LON 4139 8428 4131 8454 4146 8461 4161 8439
4159 8438 4151 8438 4151 8434 4143 8434
4143 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1533Z 236DEG 17KT 4139 8455
HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH
MCSThe Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:46 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A healthy tree one foot in diameter snapped approximately four feet above ground, and part of another tree fell onto a neighboring house.
EM reported numerous downed trees in and near Liberty Center. Time estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 908793, 908794.