Hail in Ohio, August 17, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
206 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers are possible today from the I-80
corridor into eastern Ohio. Showers will be possible again on Tuesday
mainly south of Pittsburgh. Generally dry, seasonable weather is
expected midweek as high pressure builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough approaching this afternoon will renew chances for
showers and an isolated storm, primarily along a weakening cold
frontal zone that will advance toward DUJ-YNG-PHD by early this
evening and a moisture discontinuity PHD-ZZV.

Given the forecasted moisture and instability profile, any convection
today appears likely to be capped at H7 given the inversion evident
in the 12UTC RAOB. So if convergence along the afternoon frontal zone
is sufficient to develop deep, moist convection, brief, isolated-
scattered showers capable of heavy rain are the most likely outcome
given CAPE entirely below the freezing level.

The current expectation is that showers will bloom in the vicinity
of Lake Erie and swwd along the frontal zone and moisture
discontinuity as the shortwave trough approaches. As these move
slowly sewd, they may encroach on the I-80 corridor and into the OH
zones before waning toward evening as heating diminishes and they
move into a CINH bulls-eye near Pittsburgh.

Seasonable maxima/minima are expected today and tonight. With the
frontal zone remaining nearby and limited sfc moisture, it is unclear
if fog will return late tonight. But conditions do appear to favor
efficient radiational cooling for much of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The frontal zone will remain draped across swrn PA on Tue morning.
Dry weather is expected through at least early Tue under shortwave
ridging, but scattered showers are expected by afternoon as a
shortwave trough approaches the region and a sfc wave tracks along
the previously mentioned front.

Models differ on the position of the frontal zone and associated
shower chances with not inconsiderable variability in its nwd extent.
Prior forecast focused precipitation chances near and south of I-70,
which seems a reasonable consensus placement of the frontal zone.

The trough and associated shower chances exit Tue night as sfc high
pressure builds in while still amid broad upper-level troughing. High
pressure should maintain dry weather thereafter through Wed night.

Maxima and minima will remain relatively steady-state and near
seasonal averages. Coolest air will remain north of I-80, where
maxima in the mid 70s are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model ensembles suggest with high confidence that an expansive wrn-
CONUS ridge and sern-CONUS trough will remain dominant through the
remainder of the week.

The Upper Ohio Valley will remain amid weak nwly flow aloft downstream
of the wrn ridge. Rain chances will be tied to phasing of shortwave
troughs in this nrn stream with the lingering upper trough in the
sern CONUS. Otherwise, synoptic support may be focused too far north
to have much impact in the Pittsburgh region.

With a few potential days of dry weather, strong heating will promote
daily increases in temperature, with maxima reaching the mid-upper
80s by late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated convection is possible north of PIT and near ZZV this
afternoon with a crossing shortwave trough and approaching weak cold
front. Given the spotty coverage, this potential has been omitted
from any TAFs until greater specificity of timing and location can
be determined. Best chances will be near ZZV/FKL.

Patchy morning fog is possible again overnight, but
coverage/intensity are less certain as a result of the impending
frontal zone.

.Outlook...
Apart from possible patchy morning fog in favored locations, VFR
conditions are expected through the remainder of the week amid sfc
high pressure and associated airmass drying.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Kramar

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
317 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-180730-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-
Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
317 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and the northern
panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
430 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

OHZ057-172100-
Muskingum-
430 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WIND WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MUSKINGUM COUNTY...

At 429 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near South
Zanesville, or 7 miles northeast of Perry State Forest, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville...                     South Zanesville...
Fultonham...                      Ruraldale...
Cannelville...                    East Fultonham...

This includes  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 147 and
151.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3998 8212 3977 8179 3976 8183 3977 8207
      3982 8208 3982 8217 3991 8216 3991 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 313DEG 20KT 3987 8214

CL