A cold front sagged south into the Mid-South during the day on May 3, 2020. A potent, quick-moving shortwave interacted with this front and convection developed across Missouri by noon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A cold front sagged south into the Mid-South during the day on May 3, 2020. A potent, quick-moving shortwave interacted with this front and convection developed across Missouri by noon. The airmass across the Mid-South was moderately unstable with fairly strong wind shear in place. The convection formed into a bow echo and intensified as it raced across the northern Mid-South during the afternoon hours. Damaging winds were widespread. By early evening additional storms developed across West Tennessee and produced large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 11:34 AM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1234 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 .UPDATE... Update for 18Z TAF issuance. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1028 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020/ It's generally quiet across the Mid-South at this time, but we're continuing to monitor a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across southwest MO. These storms are expected to continue a rapid eastward progression throughout the day ahead of a shortwave trough over the Central Plains. A stratocumulus deck is filling in across the region this morning, but the latest guidance continues to indicate destabilization this afternoon with temperatures warming into to 80F+ in most areas. MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg is anticipated this afternoon, mainly along north of I-40 as moisture pools ahead of the approaching cold front. Deep-layer shear will be strong with 0-6km BWD of 35-45 kts. This should help maintain the MCS despite it running into a bit of a capping inversion. Downshear Corfidi vectors indicate a propagation speed exceeding 50 mph so this system won't take long to move through the CWA. Damaging winds will be the primary concern, especially across the Bootheel and portions of west TN. PoPs were increased for this afternoon to account for the more recent model trends and anticipated MCS. Temperatures were also increased a few degrees in the northern portion of the CWA where surface obs are already in the mid 70s. MJ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020/ DISCUSSION... Currently...Mild across the Mid-South early this morning with light south winds and temps ranging from the upper 50s along the TN River to the upper 60s across the Delta. Humidity levels have climbed over the past day or two with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Skies are mostly clear and a cold front is situated from KIND-KSTL-KOKC. Today and tonight...Cold front will sag south during the day while a fast moving shortwave moves across the Middle MS Valley by noon and into the Ohio Valley by this evening. Expect interaction between these features to result in convective development early this morning across SE KS/SW MO spreading east/southeast during the day. A marginally unstable airmass with SBCAPES between 1000-2000 j/kg will develop today across northern sections of the Mid-South. Steep mid level lapse rates are in place as evidenced not only by sounding data but also periods of ACCAS clouds over the last 24 hours. 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts will overspread northern parts of the Mid-South as the shortwave passes by to the north. The cap around 700 mb is pretty substantial early on though model soundings indicate some weakening by this afternoon. Latest CAMs indicate multi cell clusters working into northern parts of the Mid-South starting as early as 11 am pushing east/southeast during the afternoon. Given that some ingredients are in place some strong to perhaps severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging wind would be the threat with any severe storms. As the upper support races east expect convection associated with the front drifting south across the Mid-South to weaken tonight. By Monday morning the front will be located across North MS. Monday and Monday night...The front will remain stalled for a while Monday with a few showers around in the morning. Monday afternoon the next shortwave will start racing across the plains and into the Middle MS Valley with surface low pressure tracking from the Red River Valley ENE toward North AR/SW MO and the stalled front across the Mid-South will start to lift NE. Expect convection to develop across MO during the day and eventually slide east-southeast along the boundary across the Mid-South. Steep mid-level lapse rates, adequate surface based instability south of the boundary and 0-6 km shear values increasing to over 50kts could lead to a few severe storms mainly over NE AR, the MO Bootheel and NW TN. Damaging winds and hail would be the main threats. The severe weather threat looks like later in the afternoon into the evening hours before the shortwave tracks east and the upper support wanes. Tuesday...The trailing cold front drifts southeast during the day. There will be a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as the front tracks through but the forcing is weak and a cap will be in place. Have decided to pull the mention of strong storms from the HWO for Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday...This beautiful spring still has legs. Cool high pressure with deep NW flow builds in with well below normal temperatures. Some location will see some lows in the 40s especially Thursday morning. Friday and Saturday...This pattern is looking like fall with a large upper low dropping into the Great Lakes by the end of the week. A cold front front will bring rain chances to the Mid-South Friday followed by an unseasonable, almost chilly. airmass for the weekend. Expect highs in the 60s with widespread lows in the 40s. Would not be surprised if one of our cooler locations dips to 39F. FYI...average highs for next weekend for Memphis are approaching 80F with average lows around 60F. SJM && .AVIATION... /18Z TAFs/ Active weather period for most of our TAF sites this forecast cycle. Line of TSRA will move rapidly east near the AR/MO and TN/KY borders, and may affect northern TAF sites with TSRA and gusty OUTFLOW winds. Surface cold front will move through overnight, continuing the threat for at least SHRA at all except KTUP. Lower cigs also expected with frontal boundary, will take to lower bound of MVFR for now. SSW surface winds, some gusty, will swing to N/NE following front passage. GW && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1144 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-041100- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 1144 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Confidence is increasing that a cluster of strong to severe storms will affect northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee this afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with large hail being a secondary concern. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect from Harrisburg, to Brownsville, to Decaturville through 6 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday A few strong to severe storms are possible along and north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Best chances for severe storms will be across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and Northwest Tennessee. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. MJ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
124 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 PM TSTM WND DMG CORNING 36.41N 90.59W
05/03/2020 CLAY AR SOCIAL MEDIA
TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES ON SW 3RD
&&
SMWThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 121 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:37 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were knocked down across Malden.
Uprooted trees damaged six homes in Caruthersville.
Straight-line winds caused roof damage and trees down three miles southeast of Holcomb.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 896958, 896990, 898919, 896994, 896995.