A series of heavy rainfall events in mid and late May caused the Mississippi River to rise back above flood stage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A series of heavy rainfall events in mid and late May caused the Mississippi River to rise back above flood stage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 5:53 PM CST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 653 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 The deep upper low will impact the region throughout the short term portion of this forecast. There is a strong consensus amongst the 12Z guidance that the low will move southward through southern Illinois overnight tonight and into west Kentucky by daybreak Tuesday. The low will bottom out over west Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and then shift to eastern Tennessee by Wednesday. There will not be any significant surface reflection impacting our region, as we will continue with northwest winds through out. There are some scattered light showers or sprinkles currently over the St Louis Metro area, and a few of these could reach our northwest counties late this afternoon. Most of this should dissipate with loss of heating. There is a decent signal for a cluster of showers right with the upper low center working southward through the area mainly after midnight. The main swath would be through southern Illinois and into the Purchase Area. Tuesday, the showers will become more widespread across the region with the emphasis over west Kentucky, closest to the low. Model soundings are not quite sure if we will have deep enough instability to support a few thunderstorms or not. Did add a slight chance of thunderstorms to southwest Indiana and most of west Kentucky, but the greatest concern will be over southern portions of west Kentucky. Most of the activity will dissipate with loss of heating, but a few showers could linger east of the Mississippi through Tuesday night. With the upper low expected to be over eastern Tennessee Wednesday, deep instability will be more difficult to achieve even in the southern Pennyrile. Decided to remove all mention of thunder on Wednesday, but it may need to be added back in, especially over the southern Pennyrile, if the low wobbles back closer to our region. Confidence in the exact placement/movement of upper lows in these situations is not great, so expect adjustments. There will be scattered showers with the emphasis continuing to be over west Kentucky. These should mostly be diurnal and Wednesday night should be dry. As for temperatures, tried to lean toward the warm side of guidance tonight with cloudy skies and lightish winds expected. Likewise, with plenty of cloud cover Tuesday and decent coverage of showers/storms, temperatures will likely be held down quite a bit. We may be too warm with highs for Tuesday. Generally excepted the consensus for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 The meandering upper low will continue to plague us through the end of the work week. Wrap around moisture will give our eastern counties chances of showers Thursday morning, with chances increasing and spreading west Thursday afternoon with a few thunderstorms also possible. A lull is expected Thursday night. By Friday, models show the upper low moving farther east, but also have an upper level trof approaching from the west. Models differ in just how much precipitation these features will produce, but it looks like our far east and far west counties will have the better chances, with our southern Illinois and far west Kentucky counties having a bit lower chances. A few thunderstorms will also be possible for our far east and far west counties mainly in the afternoon. We may again see a lull in activity Friday evening, but the advancement of the upper trof will spread low chances of showers back across the PAH forecast area overnight. On Saturday, models show a surface low over the Central Plains with an associated warm front extending into the lower Mississippi Valley. This warm front will gradually lift northward through the weekend. This will give our region good chances of showers and some thunderstorms, with the best chances during the daytime hours. By Sunday night into Monday, models bring an another upper level trof toward the middle Mississippi Valley, and bring yet another round of showers and some thunderstorms to our region. Confidence in the on and off chances of showers and thunderstorms is good, but confidence in timing of the best chances is lower due to model differences and run to run inconsistencies. On Thursday, our region will be in north to northeasterly flow, so temperatures will remain a little below seasonal normals in the lower to middle 70s. Winds become southerly on Friday, and temperatures will jump up to several degrees above normal. The most significant warming will be over the holiday weekend into Memorial Day as the warm front lifts north, when we will see high temperatures generally in the middle 80s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 An upper low over central Illinois will drop southward into western Kentucky tomorrow morning, then western Tennessee by late afternoon. After mainly VFR conditions this evening, MVFR ceilings will develop overnight and last through much of Tuesday. Isolated showers are also possible tonight, especially after midnight, as the low moves into the area. Coverage of shower activity should increase late tomorrow morning and persist into the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are even possible, especially in western Kentucky during the afternoon. Northwest winds should average less than 10 knots through the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...RJP SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...RJP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-191000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast for west Kentucky and southwest Indiana Tuesday afternoon. A brief heavy downpour and lightning can be expected with any storms, but small hail will also be possible, especially over southern portions of west Kentucky. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across portions of the region Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon, then Saturday through Monday. Brief heavy rainfall and lightning appear to be the main hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DRS/RST
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding of the Mississippi River was minor, consisting of flooded fields, low-lying access roads, and some riverside parkland. Some minor crop damage likely occurred.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 885752.