A large but loosely-organized complex of thunderstorms moved southeast across southeast Missouri during the afternoon. Storms produced heavy rain, along with isolated wind damage in the Ozark foothills.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A large but loosely-organized complex of thunderstorms moved southeast across southeast Missouri during the afternoon. Storms produced heavy rain, along with isolated wind damage in the Ozark foothills. The storms blossomed in a convergent wind flow south of a closed 850 mb low over northern Missouri. Daytime heating contributed to moderately strong instability, with mixed-layer cape values of 2000 to 2500 j/kg. Precipitable water values from 1.75 to 2 inches supported heavy downpours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 11:10 AM CST, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 We continue to monitor approaching convection from central and east sections of Missouri. We may see a convective watch with time after coord with SPC. Main hazard should be damaging wind gusts as the activity continues southeast. Some of the CAMs data suggests a weakening trend with time. Having said that, the CAMs haven't been too reliable, so we prefer overall reality via sat and radar trends. Overnight through Tuesday night, the pattern will remain unsettled with WSW flow aloft offering multiple disturbances that will move across the area. Thus the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue, even after a lull with today's convection. Generally followed NBM for temperature guidance. Warm and humid conditions to continue. We will have to monitor the locally heavy rain aspect, especially across the southern 1/2 of the CWFA. .LONG TERM...(mid week through Sunday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 As a deep northern stream low barrels its way north of the Great Lakes, it drives its long and well advertised cold front south during the day on Thursday, to somewhere just north of our FA by 00Z Friday. As it makes its entry and passage here Thursday night, it encounters a moist tongue of still mid 70s dew points that pinwheels around the well entrenched Bermuda high, and across the Ohio River Valley. Weak perturbations in the flow ripple along the frontal boundary, and this should be enough to induce scattered showers/storms as its night-time passage occurs. By Friday morning, the front stretches from its parent Low well north in Canada, along the Northeast U.S. and back into/across Mid Appalachia. It pinches off south of there/over us, as incoming surface high pressure builds from Missouri across the FA during the day. This brings the nice Canadian source airmass that drops dew points into/thru the 60s, and temps back into the 70s, that will stick around into the weekend. The NBM has been struggling with hanging up pops with the slow pinch/deterioration of the frontal boundary, but we continue to think there is enough day to day consistency in suggesting a clean fropa, with any such activity staying just south/east of the FA, so we and neighbors have made the same minor adjustments we've made the past few nights, lingering only a Friday AM pop in our south/east for safe betting. The remainder of the weekend looks spectacular. Saturday looks to be the primo day, with 70s for highs and comfortably lower humidity with dew points driving into the 50s. Sunday recovers somewhat with low end 80s for highs and dew points nudging back up thru the 60s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1058 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Best chance of showers and storms this afternoon will be west of a KSAR-KPAH line, including southeast MO. Some may be severe with isolated gusts reaching 50 kts. We will continue to see pockets of MVFR cigs, though general improvement to VFR anticipated through the afternoon outside of convection. Winds will mainly be light as well, expect gusty around thunderstorms. VFR conditions with variable clouds anticipated tonight, along with light winds. There is a chance for a few showers and storms overnight, though chances should be lower than this afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 1044 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 1044 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of far western Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois. A few strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds cannot be ruled out. Marginally severe hail is also possible, though less likely. Storms may also produce heavy rain, reducing visibility and possibly causing minor localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday through Thursday. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall are the primary storm associated concerns. Repeat rounds of thunderstorms may eventually lead to localized flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation cannot be ruled out this afternoon, primarily in portions of southeast Missouri.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 MOZ076-086-087-100-107>110-311900- Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler- Stoddard- Including the cities of Perryville, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Piedmont, Van Buren, Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, and Bloomfield 1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... Strong thunderstorms are expected to move into southeast Missouri through 200 PM. Some of the storms may produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, along with torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and possibly small hail. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Continue to monitor NOAA Weather Radio or local media for updates. CN
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 186 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:02 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree limbs were down, and one tree was snapped.
A few trees and power lines were blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, August 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 909517, 909604.