Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, August 8, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
316 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Early morning convection continues associated with frontal
boundary along intl border despite no shear in the near storm
environment. Storm should continue to slowly move west to east
along border area as sfc boundary translates east. Once front is
across the area by mid-morning, will continue to see a day in the
80s today but with much drier dew points this afternoon and it
should feel a tad bit cooler than a humid Friday as aftn dewpoints
lingering in the 50s for much of the area. Expect some modest
CAPE however across the southern tier of counties into Otter Tail
and Wadena counties as the drier air won't be able to punch into
those southern counties, keeping west central MN and the southern
valley warm and humid. Chances for more scattered convection
return to the area on Sunday with stronger storms capable of
producing quarter sized hail once again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Sunday night through Tuesday...The cold front will still be pushing
through the CWA at the start of the period, with high pressure
building in behind it. There will be some lingering precip over our
eastern counties Sunday night, but conditions should become quiet
for the beginning of the work week. Temps will be slightly cooler
than seasonal averages on Monday behind the front but warming back
up for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...The pattern turns active again with upper
ridging building just to our west and southwesterly flow aloft
setting up for the middle and end of the week. South to
southeasterly surface winds return, bringing moisture back into the
area. Some of the R and M climate percentiles are very high for
Thursday night and Friday with specific humidity and QPF, which
seems to indicate a wet pattern. Have fairly high POPs on and off
although timing of various shortwaves is impossible to tell at this
point. Temps will be on the warmer side of average with highs in the
80s and the moisture keeping lows up in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Chances for any t-storms thru 12z is quite low so not included in
any TAF site. Front will move into the RRV 09z or so and exit
Bemidji area by 15z. Winds will turn northwest 8 to 15 kts behind
it. Some MVFR cigs overnight Bemidji area but otherwise VFR
expected thru 15z..then VFR all areas after 15z Sat.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
816 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081330-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
816 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to be possible this
afternoon, mainly across eastern North Dakota into west central
Minnesota. Hail up to 2 inches, wind gusts to 75 mph, and even
tornadoes will be possible. Activity will be more isolated in
northwestern Minnesota. Another round of thunderstorms will also
be possible later tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic thunderstorms will be possible Saturday morning and again
Sunday. Storms could be strong to severe on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
144 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

MNZ004-NDZ007-008-080745-
Kittson MN-Pembina ND-Cavalier ND-
144 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KITTSON...
NORTHEASTERN CAVALIER AND NORTHERN PEMBINA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM
CDT...

At 144 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Walhalla, or 20 miles northeast of Langdon, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Walhalla around 150 AM CDT.
  Leroy, Akra and Icelandic State Park around 200 AM CDT.
  Backoo around 205 AM CDT.
  Cavalier around 210 AM CDT.
  Neche around 215 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4877 9816 4899 9806 4899 9712 4869 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 274DEG 33KT 4890 9796