Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, August 19 to 20, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Bumped up POPs a bit further for storms approaching the northern
counties. One cell just north of the international border has been
getting some pretty hefty 50dbZ cores, so will continue to monitor
as the shortwave comes down into our area.

UPDATE Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Showers approaching our northwestern counties from Manitoba have
been dissipating as they move southeast, but will continue to
monitor as the shortwave comes closer and we get some more of the
more robust convection moving into the area. Bumped up POPs a bit
across the north, as there should be some decent precip chances as
the shortwave moves into northern MN. There will be some elevated
instability with MU CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, and with deep
layer bulk shear at 30-35 kts, can't completely rule out a few
cells pulsing up to produce hail. Will continue to keep an eye on
storms as they arrive stateside.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Clear skies with warm and humid conditions continue this evening.
Any thunderstorm development will hold off until well after
midnight as a weak shortwave comes over the top of the ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

A quiet, though muggy evening is expected across the area. There
may be another very subtle short wave that drops southeast late
tonight, which may set off a few more showers and storms. However,
think this should be after midnight, and pretty isolated.

Thursday will be another hot and muggy day, fairly similar to
today. The SPC day 2 outlook has a slim portion of the northeast
FA in a marginal risk. Their discussion mentions capping may
diminish there by afternoon, with warm advection providing the
needed lift. Models are all over the place in regard to timing and
placement for these few storms on Thursday. At this point, kept
precipitation chances on the low end, and fairly broadbrushed.
SPC mentions the best chance for a few strong to severe storms in
the northeast FA would be in the afternoon. Would expect any of
this activity to wane again in the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Periodic thunderstorm chances will become a mainstay for the
majority of the forecast, with the most definitive chance coming
Friday afternoon into the evening. Moving into the weekend the
general warming trend will begin to diminish with temperatures
dipping into the 80s with some areas, particularly in the northern
extent of the CWA, sinking back into the 70s toward the end of the
forecast period.

Ensemble guidance is in agreement that the parade of shortwave
troughs will continue across the period, with the most pronounced
wave, at this time, moving through the area later in the afternoon
on Friday. Modest CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg will be in place with
persistent moisture advection in the low/mid levels. Confidence in
severe weather associated with this system is still low, however;
the possibility for severe weather is still not ruled out. The
second chance for thunderstorms introduces itself on Sunday
afternoon/evening as the upper level pattern transitions to zonal
flow. The beginning of the work week may see rain initially on
Monday morning as the thunderstorms exit the area. Towards the end
of the forecast period, ensembles are hinting at another shortwave
moving through the area and bringing with it the potential for
thunderstorms yet again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

VFR conditions for all TAF sites that will continue into tomorrow.
Some showers and thunderstorms moving down from Canada, a bit more
widespread than expected so have VCTS at all but KFAR for the 09
to 13Z time frame. Quiet and VFR after with winds picking up from
the south-southeast at around 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Rick
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
327 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-202030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
327 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible after midnight, however
severe weather is not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.