Rip Current in Michigan, July 11, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
732 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

Satellite this morning shows mostly clear skies across the CWA as
the remaining clouds and showers have exited all but the far eastern
UP. Otherwise, NW gradient flow persists from the surface right up
through the mid levels. That NW flow could be a bit breezy this
afternoon with fairly deep mixing, especially out east and along the
Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette. This prolonged onshore
flow will lead to a moderate swim risk for the Alger County beaches.
A weak and (mostly) dry cold front is expected to drop southeastward
across Lake Superior and the UP this afternoon and evening. While a
potent mid-level short wave passes by well to the south, in our
area, there's little if any forcing for precip with this front. A
few of the CAMs show very brief shower development in Delta and
Menominee counties this afternoon, likely as a combination of
frontal forcing and low-level convergence along the Lake
Michigan/Bay of Green Bay lake breeze. Model soundings at Escanaba
pretty much all show a capping inversion around 700 mb. This, plus
humidity values being lower than they've been recently, make lake
breeze showers seem unlikely. But since a few CAMs have them, and
perhaps forcing with the front could be just deep enough to help
parcels overcome that cap, have (somewhat reluctantly) included a
few hours of slight chance POPs across the south-central this
afternoon. Don't think any showers that do form would last long
enough or grow tall enough to produce thunder. Highs today will be
similar to yesterday, mostly in the mid 70s to low 80s, but with
lower dew points than yesterday. That decrease in moisture will help
things really cool off tonight, with a lot of bias-corrected
guidance showing lows in the upper 40s over the interior west and
even low 50s everywhere else except the immediate shorelines.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

Quiet weather will continue from Sunday into Monday. Monday will
mark the start of a slow warming trend with high temperatures rising
a degree or so each day, over the previous, though the week along
with increased humidity. A surface high over Ontario will continue
light northerly low level flow into the U.P on Sunday along with
scattered cloudiness as a weak shortwave moves across the area. Some
of the high resolution guidance brings scattered light showers or
drizzle to the upslope areas near Lake Superior but feel this is
probably overdone. Held off on any mention of precip at this time
for Sunday.

Changes in the pattern begin after Monday. Upper level ridging will
build into the OH and TN Valleys. The Upper Great Lakes will be in
the westerly zonal flow on the northern fringe of the Upper Ridge.
Several shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow will bring periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through the end of the
week. Tuesday into early Wednesday looks like the best chance for
widespread appreciable precipitation over the next several days. Did
trend back on the PoPs for Wednesday afternoon as the blended
guidance seems to hold on to the departure of the frontal driven
precipitation too long.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 731 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

Clear skies this morning should give way to a scattered cloud deck
around 4000-5000 ft much of this afternoon through tonight, but
conditions will stay VFR at the TAF sites. Only exception is at SAW
early tomorrow morning when models show MVFR cloud deck pushing
onshore from Lake Superior.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 308 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

Hard to tell exactly how much fog remains out there but models
suggest that there is still some over the eastern half of the lake.
Have maintained it in the forecast through midday (though none of it
dense) by which point drier air behind a weak cold front should help
mix out whatever is left. That cold front also allows NW winds to
remain around 20 kts on the eastern half of the lake today and
tonight, whereas winds on the west half will be much lighter and be
dominated by afternoon lake breezes and evening land breezes. The
winds on the east half gradually subside through Sunday and below 15
kts by Sunday evening.

High pressure then builds across the Upper Great Lakes Monday,
keeping winds around or below 15 kts. Tuesday looks to be the next
chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
pushes across the region. Ahead of the front Monday night into
Tuesday, expect winds to become southerly at around 15-20 kts. Winds
will switch around to the west-southwest Tuesday behind the front
but remain breezy at around 15-20 kts before subsiding Tuesday
night. Generally light winds are expected again on Wednesday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...RJC
MARINE...RJC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
853 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MIZ001>005-007-009>014-084-085-121300-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
853 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 /753 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Expect a moderate swim risk along Alger County beaches Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible over all of Upper Michigan Tuesday
into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-121300-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
853 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 /753 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be possible over Lake Superior Monday night
into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-121300-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
853 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ006-121300-
Alger-
853 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Expect a moderate swim risk along Alger County beaches this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Expect a moderate swim risk along Alger County beaches Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible over all of Upper Michigan Tuesday
into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

JAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1136 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E MANISTIQUE          45.96N 86.20W
07/11/2020  M1.63 INCH       SCHOOLCRAFT        MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-SH-2 MANISTIQUE 2.3 E.
            THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW MANISTIQUE         45.99N 86.28W
07/11/2020  M1.77 INCH       SCHOOLCRAFT        MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-SH-1 MANISTIQUE 2.7 NW.
            THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

&&