A line of showers and thunderstorms redeveloped across the lower Ohio Valley along and ahead of a slowly southward sagging cool front this afternoon and evening. These entered portions of the Bluegrass region, particularly Montgomery County, by early evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A line of showers and thunderstorms redeveloped across the lower Ohio Valley along and ahead of a slowly southward sagging cool front this afternoon and evening. These entered portions of the Bluegrass region, particularly Montgomery County, by early evening. Segments of this line of storms continued to maintain severe intensity until near sundown when they lost their strength and associated downdraft winds diminished significantly. Tree and powerline damage led to nearly 1,000 power outages.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 3:25 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 425 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2020 The surface analysis as of 20Z now shows the boundary beginning to slowly inch south into Kentucky. The other concern is the convection to the west with the bowing structure. Still, sunshine is reaching the surface in southeastern Kentucky. Surface based CAPE is now reaching 1000 to 1500 J/KG across the Bluegrass where the cap may be eroding as several weak cells are developing and moving into Fleming County. This may be the beginning of some development to the south but the cap will remain stronger southward. Thus, will need to focus on more forcing and wait for the front to sag southeast through eastern Kentucky. Thus, will bring pops southeast and likely chance of precip into the area by 22Z. The main question this evening will be whether the instability will still be present with the setting sun. This will depend upon the arrival of the front from the northwest or the arrival of the MCS from the west. Arrival of the MCS in the southwest may be enough to tap into the mixed layer for a few strong storms into southwest Kentucky. Aloft, later tonight, the jet will arrive into the OH Valley pushing the front through the southeast and clearing out the area by dawn. Drier air and a cooler air mass will bring some upper 40s to lower 50s low temps tonight. The boundary will then set up south of the TN border as a brief period of high pressure will pass allowing for a good recovery of temps Monday afternoon into the lower 70s. In a still progressive pattern, the next wave will push through from the west bringing another bout of showers and even a few thunderstorms by Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2020 The rest of the week will feature a prominent cooling trend along with multiple rounds of showers and a few storms. Models are in decent agreement through Wednesday night, but then diverge on how they handle an anomalous upper level low through the end of the week. The extended period starts 12Z Tuesday with a wave of low pressure riding along the KY/TN border. Rain showers will be ongoing across most of the CWA at that time, although there could be an isolated rumble over far SW portions of the CWA courtesy some weak elevated instability. The highest shower chances and rainfall amounts will remain over the southern half of the CWA through the daylight hours Tuesday as the low and a trailing cold front slide eastward. Max temps will be on the cooler side, ranging from the upper 50s along I-64 to the lower 70s along the TN border, closer to the low’s warm sector. Limited instability will keep the Tuesday afternoon thunder chance lows, mainly along/south of the Hal Rogers/ Hwy 80 corridor. Partial clearing and cooler conditions follow Tuesday night as the low exits to the east. A digging upper level trough, trailing the Tuesday’s surface low, descends into the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning with a renewed push of low-level moisture, cooling temps aloft, and strengthening northwest flow. Models generally agree that SBCAPE levels approach 500 J/kg while equilibrium levels rise into the 500-400 mb range by afternoon, but shear values remain modest ~ 35 kts. This will set the stage for convective shower and low-top thunderstorms as a surface trough pushes through the CWA during the afternoon. Heights slowly rise heading into the day on Thursday as high pressure pushes east from the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a partly sunny but cool day. The 12Z run of GFS has departed from previous runs and now suggests some light shower activity with some sort of trough on Thursday. Will maintain dry conditions for the sake of continuity at this time. Wednesday’s highs will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and perhaps a couple degrees warmer on Thursday. Some patchy frost is possible Wednesday night in sheltered valleys if skies clear out quickly enough. An anomalous upper level low then pivots southward across the eastern CONUS heading into Mother’s Day weekend. However, the system’s evolution remains somewhat obscure as run-to-run model consistency and overall agreement remains low. The general consensus is that an ~ 520 dam low, from the High Canadian Arctic, will dive toward the Great Lakes and pivot across the Northeast and into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. This will send a strong cold front sweeping across the entire eastern US on Friday, with a period of cold showers and possibly a storm or two. 850 temps plunge below 0C area-wide by Saturday morning. The frost/freeze potential for Saturday morning will depend on the timing of the front, how much precipitation falls with the front and how quickly the BL decouples behind the front. Frost/freeze concerns could be more widespread Saturday night as 850mb temps remain near or below 0C, surface high pressure crests over the region and most of the atmosphere remains dry – ideal conditions for strong radiational cooling. Both the Euro and GFS hint at another low pressure system for Monday, followed by more cool air. High temps from Saturday through Monday will likely range through the 50s to low 60s while overnight temps drop into the 30s, for most locations. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2020 Generally, expect VFR conditions through the first few hours of the TAF period, possibly VFR for JKL, LOZ, and SME depending how long it takes convection to develop ahead of a slowly sagging southeast cold front. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the front and travel east and southeast through the area between 22Z and 06Z. Through the sites will be experiencing a drop to MVFR and then IFR conditions as the line pushes through. Have included VCTS at all the TAF sites for this update. The period should end with some MVFR in the morning due to fog but this should improve at the sites before 18Z. Winds though much of the period will be southwest with some gusts up to 20 knots but will switch around to the northwest after 06Z and be at around 10 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 511 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-050015- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 511 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms will affect the area this evening. Some of these storms could become strong to severe. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of quarters, and locally heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible, at times, from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible again on Wednesday and Friday. Some patchy frost will be possible next weekend, especially Saturday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. SHALLENBERGER/GEERTSON
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
545 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020
KYZ044-050>052-060-032230-
Rowan-Montgomery-Menifee-Fleming-Bath-
545 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY...BATH...NORTHWESTERN
MENIFEE...SOUTHEASTERN FLEMING AND WEST CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES...
At 545 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Paris, or 14
miles northwest of Mount Sterling, moving east at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Frenchburg, Marshall, Jeffersonville,
Camargo, Sharpsburg, Salt Lick, Clay Lick, Ramey, Wyoming, Cornwell,
Peasticks, Rothwell, Olympia Springs, Flat Creek, Odessa, Bourbon
Furnace, Sharkey and Prewitt.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3826 8354 3792 8358 3798 8399 3812 8408
3814 8406 3817 8399 3819 8398 3823 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 272DEG 36KT 3815 8418
SHALLENBERGERThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:11 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch and the public reported multiple trees, large limbs, and utility lines downed in and around Mount Sterling.
An NWS Employee observed the top of a 10 inch diameter cherry tree snap off north of Jeffersonville.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree downed on Irvine Road near the intersection with Snow Creek Road west of Clay City. A vehicle struck this tree, but no injuries were sustained.
Dispatch reported that powerlines were blown down at a residence in Pine Ridge.
Dispatch reported a tree downed on Mine Fork Road northeast of Salyersville.
Dispatch reported that three trees were blown down onto U.S. Highway 460 near Cottle.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree downed on Millers Creek Road near Odds.
Dispatch reported a tree blown down onto powerlines in Paintsville, subsequently knocking all traffic lights out in town.
A citizen observed a downed tree on Kentucky Highway 541 just north of the intersection with Kentucky Highway 52 near Chenowee.
A citizen observed a tree blown onto a powerline, subsequently knocking it onto Kentucky Highway 587 just east of Bradshaw.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 879918, 879922, 879935, 879937, 879928, 879941, 879942, 879944, 879947, 879945.