A surface cold front moved southeast across the lower Ohio Valley, preceded by strengthening moisture transport at 850 mb. The parent 500 mb trough moved into the central and southern Plains.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A surface cold front moved southeast across the lower Ohio Valley, preceded by strengthening moisture transport at 850 mb. The parent 500 mb trough moved into the central and southern Plains. This system brought heavy rainfall to parts of western Kentucky. Some of the heaviest rainfall amounts were in the Paducah area, where around 2.5 inches fell.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 4, 5:35 AM CST, 4 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 535 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 Main issue through Wednesday is heavy rain potential, then some minor wintry precip is possible Wed night into Thursday. As of 09z, rain was widespread across our region ahead of a strong cold front extending from kstl to ksgf. Plenty of moisture is in place ahead of the front, with sfc dew points in the 50s and precip water values of 1.1 to 1.4 inches. As the cold front sags southeast today, some locally heavy rainfall is likely as the front encounters the juicy air mass. Rainfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches are expected along and southeast of a line from kcgi to kowb. Rainfall will decrease to the northwest. A lull in the precip is expected late tonight and Wednesday morning, then another round of precip will occur Wed afternoon and evening. This second round of precip will be associated with a surface low that will develop along the front and move northeast across Middle Tennessee. North winds on the back side of this low will draw sub-freezing air into parts of southern IL and southeast MO just before the precip ends Wed night. The depth of the cold air will be quite shallow, so the main wintry precip hazard would be freezing rain. Some light ice accumulations are still forecast in the Mt. Vernon to Perryville corridor Wed nite. Any impacts will be limited by pavement temps that will lag the cooling air temps. Storm total qpf remains somewhat marginal for flooding concerns. One to two inches are expected in southern parts of our area today. The second round of precipitation Wednesday/Wed night is forecast to be lighter, generally one-half to one inch. Trends in observed and forecast rainfall will be monitored for any potential need for a Flood Watch issuance over the next 24 hours. Some isolated elevated convection may occur in southern parts of west Kentucky and se Missouri, which could enhance rainfall. On Thursday, some light patchy precip will wrap around the back side of the low as it moves northeast through the upper Ohio Valley. The main story will be colder air, as temps struggle to rise through the 30s. The precip could be rain or snow, but amounts will be little more than a trace in most areas. Thursday night will be quite cold with lows in the 20s under partially clearing skies. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 he primary long wave trof axis appears to have already made passage as we pick up the forecast on Friday. As a result, and it was hinting at this last night as well, we are going to go ahead with a dry solution for Friday. This is despite the fact that the individual modeling still shows some lobe energy working across the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys, but in a moisture starved and height recovery overall synoptic layout that is largely working against it. This could also be the case for Saturday as well, however, the factors working against it erode away, as southern stream energy amplifies/projects moisture advection across the Tennessee River Valley. There is too much overrunning of this field to completely ignore, at least this package, so we are going to have to keep the Saturday-Saturday night pops produced by the blend. And even with it departing to the east Saturday night, we do see enough cooling on the backside of the field to introduce some light wintry pcpn upon its ejection. Chances are low and qpf is minimal, so no real impacts are anticipated at this writing. The longer term evolution of the synoptic long waves to a wetter/more active pattern begins to be realized by early next week, so the blend's reintroduction/increasing pops commencing during this period is accepted. It'll include some light wintry pcpn at onset due to time of day (late Sunday night-early Monday) critical temperatures, but is short-lived enough as Monday warming shifts everything over to all liquid so as to see little to no real wintry wx impacts. && .AVIATION... Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 As widespread rain continues, ifr conditions will be common today into tonight. A lull in the rain is expected late tonight, but cigs are forecast to remain low. Winds will become north behind a cold front passage today, averaging around 10 kt. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...MY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 351 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-051000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 351 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Locally heavy rainfall is expected today into early tonight. Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches across western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and far southern Illinois, where minor flooding of poor drainage areas could occur. Isolated thunderstorms could enhance rainfall rates. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Another round of precipitation will occur, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. Up to an inch of additional rainfall is possible in western Kentucky, where poor drainage flooding is again possible. The precipitation may end as a brief period of sleet or freezing rain Wednesday night in parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Any ice accumulations will be less than a tenth of an inch. Some minor travel impacts cannot be ruled out. A few snow or rain showers are possible Thursday, but no measurable snow is expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. However, spotters are encouraged to report any flooding issues. MY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service PADUCAH KY 411 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 ILZ088>094-KYZ001>022-MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114-042030- Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Fulton-Hickman- Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall-Calloway- Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian- Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau- Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi- New Madrid- Including the cities of Jonesboro, Vienna, Golconda, Elizabethtown, Cairo, Mound City, Metropolis, Hickman, Clinton, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Paducah, Mayfield, Smithland, Benton, Murray, Marion, Eddyville, Cadiz, Princeton, Morganfield, Dixon, Madisonville, Hopkinsville, Henderson, Owensboro, Calhoun, Greenville, Elkton, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Piedmont, Van Buren, Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, Bloomfield, Sikeston, Charleston, and New Madrid 411 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 ...Heavy Rainfall May Cause Minor Flooding... Widespread showers will continue today into early tonight. Rainfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches are expected, mainly south of a line from Greenville Missouri to Cape Girardeau to Owensboro Kentucky. This heavy rain may result in some flooding of poor drainage areas that typically flood. Another round of rainfall is expected Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Up to another inch of rain is possible in western Kentucky. This additional rainfall may cause flood-prone and poor drainage areas to again experience problems. Stay tuned for later statements concerning this heavy rain event. York
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
906 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0853 AM HEAVY RAIN WEST PADUCAH 37.07N 88.77W
02/04/2020 M1.86 INCH MCCRACKEN KY ASOS
ASOS STATION KPAH PADUCAH KY. ALSO, DITCHES
FULL, MINOR LEVELS OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS
BACK ROADS THAT TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE ISSUES
ACROSS MCCRACKEN COUNTY, KY.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
909 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE PADUCAH 37.08N 88.63W
02/04/2020 M1.81 INCH MCCRACKEN KY COCORAHS
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Some creeks came out of their banks, including Perkins Creek in Paducah. Water was over some roads in typical low-lying and poor drainage areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 872340.