Tornado and Flash Flood in Kansas, June 21, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1248 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

As of 12:00 pm MDT, updrafts have begun to develop along the
dryline in Wallace/Logan counties. Thus far, updrafts have
remainded relatively disorganized, however, as updrafts unzip
further east along the dryline -- in an increasingly unstable
airmass (mlcape 3500-4500 J/kg), damaging winds and large hail
will become increasingly likely. Expect activity to propagate
ESE-SE toward Garden City/Dodge City/Hays by 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

By the midweek timeframe, both the latest GFS/ECMWF do show a
building amplified upper ridge over the Rockies that will finally
push eastward, and begin to move the cutoff low that has been
sitting over the Great Lks/eastern Canada area. The two models do
begin to differ as to the strength of the ridge as it moves into
Plains region before breaking down ahead of a strong shortwave.

This system will work into the Pacific NW late Wednesday night,
shifting into the northern Rockies/Plains Thursday night, moving
towards the northern Mississippi Valley/Great Lks by Friday. The
timing of the trailing surface front that moves across the CWA will
be the main factor for the wx going into the upcoming weekend. The
GFS is a bit slower transitioning it thru the CWA versus the ECMWF
on Fri/Fri night. Zonal flow at 500 mb is going to transition to a
nosing ridge building off the central Rockies over the weekend. With
the inconsistency, will be staying close to the ECMWF. This will
push the front thru quicker, allowing for a faster warmup this
coming weekend.

For precip, will continue with mention of sl chance/low chance pops
for rw/trw Wednesday thru Friday, with dry/hot wx for the weekend.
PW values still indicating the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

High temperatures in the Wed-Sun timeframe will range from around
90F midweek, low to mid 90s Thursday, upper 80s Friday but could
shift higher/lower due to the affects of the frontal timing into the
region. By going with more of the ECMWF, highs Saturday will reach
into the lower to mid 90s, and to end of the upcoming weekend, upper
90s to around 100F on Sunday. Lows will trend upwards as well with
low to mid 60s to start, ending with mid 60s to lower 70s over the
weekend.

With the increased drier/hotter conditions expected for the upcoming
weekend, Fire Wx concerns do crop up. Winds for both days look to
top off in the 20-30 mph range for the afternoon hrs, but low RH
coverage only hits portions of NE Colorado Saturday, but expands
from areas along west of Hwy 25 by Sunday. Afternoon winds for
Thursday and Friday do hit criteria at this time with at least gusts
in the mid 20s mph range, but RH does not.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period.
Although an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this
afternoon -- activity is anticipated to remain south and east of
the GLD/MCK terminals. NW winds will increase to 15-25 knots late
this afternoon, veering to the N and decreasing to 10-15 knots AOA
sunset this evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
902 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221515-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
902 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 /1002 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing golf ball to baseball size
hail and wind gusts up to 75 mph are possible this afternoon, mainly
east of Highway 83 between 1-6 pm MDT. Storms will develop along or
near a line from Tribune-Colby-McCook by 1-2 pm MDT, quickly evolving
into a squall line that progresses east southeast into central
Kansas (east of Highway 283) by 4 to 6 PM MDT.

Additionally, near critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
in Eastern Colorado this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday across the
area. However, the risk for severe storms will be low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters and storm chasers are encouraged to report severe weather
(hail of any size, wind damage, measured wind gusts above 55 mph,
etc.) to the National Weather Service in Goodland via Twitter and
Facebook @NWSGoodland or via telephone by calling 1-800-272-7811.

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
122 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ028-211900-
Logan KS-
122 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Russell Springs, or 24 miles northwest of Scott State
Lake, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Pea to dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Russell Springs.

LAT...LON 3890 10141 3904 10126 3891 10082 3870 10082
      3870 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 304DEG 5KT 3893 10125

Vincent