Thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front moving eastward through northwestern Kansas. Thunderstorms produced strong wind gusts including a downburst event near St.
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The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front moving eastward through northwestern Kansas. Thunderstorms produced strong wind gusts including a downburst event near St. Francis, KS producing damaging wind gusts up to 81 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 6:01 PM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 601 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 537 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Latest satellite imagery shows the supercell storm over far NE CO continuing to move southeast. Ahead of it the updraft towers that were forming along a boundary in far E CO have wained as the sun sets. Had been thinking the storm activity would start there initially, however that is looking less likely. There are a couple storms firing east of the first storm in NE CO that are continuing to strengthen. These storms may start development further south along the boundary. However as just mentioned, confidence of this occurring is falling due to lack of cumulus development along the boundary as the sun sets. Further east a couple updraft towers have tried and failed over the last hour. However the updraft in southern Thomas County is looking more promising than the others. East of Highway 25 confidence is increasing that storm activity will occur this evening. Water vapor imagery shows deeper moisture over the east half of the forecast area. In addition the deep layer shear, ML CAPE, 0-3 km helicity are all more favorable for severe storm development this evening. Storm development should occur over the next hour or so over the east half of the forecast area as an upper level short wave trough deepens overhead, with coverage increase rather quickly through mid evening. Am also expecting storm intensity to increase through mid evening too due to the strengthening of the LLJ. The storm activity should exit the forecast area around midnight, preceding the upper level short wave trough. In addition to the storm activity in the forecast area, a MCS over NE will move southeast, possibly grazing the eastern part of the forecast area. Am thinking this activity should merge with the storm activity over our forecast area. Regarding hazards, DCAPE is quite high for the afternoon and evening. This gives confidence that the main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, especially given a 93 MPH wind gust occurred at Sydney, NE earlier. Hail is a secondary threat, mainly for the northern half of the forecast area where the effective shear will be stronger. Even though SPC has not included a risk for tornadoes over the east half of the forecast area, the increasing 0-1 KM helicity and 0-1 KM bulk shear are a bit concerning, especially given the close proximity of a diffuse dry line over the east part of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Tonight...strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly along and east of a line from Max Nebraska to Atwood and Grainfield Kansas. Along and east of this line CAPE values approaching 4000 J/KG with DCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. Thunderstorms are expected to begin further west and more high based/isolated near a dryline then increase in coverage across our northeast and eastern zones in response to an approaching upper disturbance within west-northwest flow aloft. Several runs of the operational HRRR have suggested wind gusts to 90 mph across our far northeast area turning to the right into Graham and Norton counties by mid evening. Given the large DCAPE values and the 91 mph wind gust in Hill City last week its certainly possible. Precipitable water values are in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across the east as well supporting WPC outlook for excessive rainfall. Surface winds will shift to an easterly direction overnight behind the departing MCS. Post frontal low clouds are also possible. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s to around 60 in far eastern Colorado to the low and mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. Thursday-Thursday night...lots of uncertainty regarding temperatures and precipitation forecasts. NAM/GFS 700-500mb forecasts show some moisture reaching our far eastern Colorado counties in the late afternoon hours then dissipating some while moving east across the rest of the area during the evening. Cant rule out some isolated storms as a result. We're currently expecting high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. If the NAM verifies readings will be a little cooler. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Friday...dry weather is expected but will need to be watched as another weak disturbance aided by an increase in 700-500mb moisture moves into the northwest 1/2 of the area during the time of peak heating. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 90s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 The ridge will continue to build north with the area of high pressure centered over New Mexico, Arizona, and western portions of Texas Friday night. The area of high pressure will continue to remain stationary over the southwest states through the extended; however, the extent of the ridge around the high will be suppressed starting Monday afternoon. On Monday afternoon, an upper level low will move east across western Canada, suppressing the amplitude of the ridge generating westerly zonal flow aloft over and north of the Central Plains region through the forecast period. Looking towards Wednesday, there is disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF over the placement of the low in the Saskatchewan province. The GFS is trending lower towards the center of the providence with a trough digging south into central Colorado during the early morning hours. In this scenario the trough would move east across the Tri-State area Wednesday afternoon to evening, straightening the trough to a more zonal flow aloft as it moves. The ECMWF is placing the low in the northern part of Saskatchewan, maintaining westerly zonal flow over the Plains. Due to the pattern we are in, much of the extended period will be hot and dry. Surface level winds will generally be from the south Friday night into Saturday morning before the winds shift towards the northeast then east. The winds will gradually become southerly through the day Sunday remaining from that direction through Monday night. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening due to a shortwave trough. There is some disagreement into the timing and location of the precipitation occurring, but it appears the western portion of the CWA along and west of Hwy 27 has the greatest chance. Monday will be hot and dry. Tuesday, another shortwave trough will move east across the Tri-State area bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening into early Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. High temperatures across the Tri-State area will be in the mid to upper 90s with some locations reaching the low 100s on Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday. Wednesday will be "cooler" with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s after the passing of the front. Lows each day of the extended will be in the 60s to low 70s, warming to the eastern counties of the CWA. Due to the hot and dry conditions, near-elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the western portion of the Tri-State area, especially along and west of the Colorado state line. Model guidance indicates relative humidity values dropping near and below 20% west of highway 27 Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday. Forecasted wind gusts are currently expected to remain below the elevated fire weather criteria of 25 kts; however, the winds could gust close to the threshold for eastern portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 537 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 VFR to possibly MVFR conditions are forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is the impacts/timing of the storm activity this evening. KMCK will receive the brunt of the storm activity this evening. Isolated storms may form to the west of Hwy 83. However, am thinking most of the storm activity will occur along and east of Hwy 83 this evening. Straight-line winds will be the main threat, with a secondary threat of large hail. Behind the storm activity the ceilings may lower to MVFR for both sites. The question is will there be enough cloud cover to create a broken vs. scattered deck. The clouds should clear out by late morning from west to east. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ004-016-029. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && MESOSCALE...JTL SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...JTL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200- Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins- Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove- Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow- 230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 /330 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... A Heat Advisory is in effect for Gove, Graham and Norton counties. Heat indices will reach up to 105 degrees this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along and east of highway 27 from 4 PM MDT (5 PM CDT) through about midnight MDT (1 AM CDT). The area of greatest concern for severe weather will be east of a line from Max Nebraska to Atwood and Grainfield. The primary threats will be hurricane force wind gusts to 90 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls. The very strong wind gusts may produce some blowing dust and significantly reduced visibilities. Locally heavy rainfall will promote a threat for flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Heat indices on Monday and Tuesday will be near 100 degrees along and east of a line from Norton to Oakley and Leoti. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed after 4 PM MDT (5 PM CDT) along and east of highway 27. We would appreciate severe weather reports via telephone and social media.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 652 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 COZ090-KSZ001-090115- Yuma County CO-Cheyenne KS- 652 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 715 PM MDT/815 PM CDT/... At 652 PM MDT/752 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles north of Bonny Reservoir, moving east at 15 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Beecher Island and Idalia. This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 213 and 227. LAT...LON 3965 10231 3983 10236 3995 10188 3969 10181 TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 262DEG 13KT 3977 10215 Lockhart
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:03 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station reported a wind gust of 80 mph at location at start time. Public report received at end time of tree blown down and car window broken due to thunderstorm wind gust at location.
Report received of roof damage by a thunderstorm wind gust. Speed based on damage indicator and time based on nearby Mesonet station reports and radar imagery.
Mesonet station reported a 61 mph wind gust at location.
KNRN AWOS reported a 58 mph wind gust at location.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 904368, 904366, 904384, 904387.