Several clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms tracked along and just north of a warm front draped along the I-64 corridor during the afternoon and evening of May 16th. 05 in Murrayville in Morgan County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
Several clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms tracked along and just north of a warm front draped along the I-64 corridor during the afternoon and evening of May 16th. The storms dropped 3 to 4 inches of rain across the southern sections of Scott, Morgan, and Sangamon counties...including 3.84 just southeast of Curran in Sangamon County and 3.05 in Murrayville in Morgan County. The heavy rainfall created flash flooding of numerous county roads and city viaducts. In addition, one thunderstorm cell produced dime-sized hail in Franklin in Morgan County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 1:38 PM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 238 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 A storm system over the southern plains will approach the Midwest tonight and Sunday bringing some thunderstorms and a potential of an inch or two of rain. Clouds will be slow to move out early next week, but by the later half of the week, high pressure will build into Illinois bringing dry and warm weather. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 Scattered showers have developed early this afternoon along and west of the Illinois River north of KPIA where residual low-level moisture remains from this morning's fog. The leading edge of the more substantial rainfall is near a Burlington IA to Evansville IN line. This main area of rainfall is being fed by a strong southerly flow from dew points in the lower 70s in the lower Mississippi River Valley induced by a strong low pressure system over northeast TX. This moisture will combine with synoptic lift from a northern stream wave currently over the central Plains to produce an extended period of isentropic lift and occasional heavy rainfall. Latest GEFS ensemble shows some range in forecast amounts but all members indicate over an inch and a half of precipitation tonight and Sunday. Forecasted precipitatble water amounts of around 1.75 inches are near records for seasonal climatologies. The axis of heaviest rainfall seems to be set-up northeast to southwest late tonight and early Sunday where over two inches will be possible. This maximum is southeast of areas that received several inches of rain Thursday and will hold off on issuing a FF watch at this time. A cold front will push across the area Sunday from west to east. The best combination of possible enough sun to destabize the atmosphere and forcing will be generally east of I-55 and would not be surprised if several strongs storms embed themselves in a linear MCS across eastern Illinois during the afternoon. With late passage of the front Sunday afternoon, temperatures should be able to reach near seasonal normals if any breaks in cloud cover develop. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 As the energy from Sunday's system cuts off and disconnects from the flow, it will likely just drift across the eastern U.S. for several days. Models diverge significantly on the evolution of the low early next week. the run-to-run trend continues to suggest that the low will stall further west and may actually retrograde back into the area by midweek. Will be trending up with PoPs and down with temps through Tuesday with some potential for even more adjustments if that trend continues. Also favoring a west solution is the expected movement up the east coast of the tropical system off the Florida Coast. Models differ on when the cut-off low will lift and begin to be impacted by the northern stream again. Although the evolution is slower than previous packages, the models still show a drying out trend and substantial warming with 850 mb temps reaching around 15C by next Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 Scattered convection is developing across western Illinois early this afternoon. Two areas are the focus:1) An area of enhanced moisture where the fog was most widespread this morning along I-74, and then near a diffuse warm front between KSPI and KSTL. This convection will likely continue to expand through the afternoon. Large scale forcing is expected to move into the state later this evening with more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. A cold front will push east through the area Sunday bringing an end to precipitation and shifting winds to the northwest. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Barker SHORT TERM...Barker LONG TERM...Barker AVIATION...Barker
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1137 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 ILZ029>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-171645- Cass-Fulton-Marshall-Mason-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-Scott-Tazewell- Woodford- 1137 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Thunderstorms will move back into the area this afternoon and continue into tonight. Severe weather is not expected at this time. The Illinois River at Henry and downstream will remain in flood through next week. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Thunderstorms will occur Sunday, but should come to an end during the late afternoon. Additional rainfall will around an inch. This amount of rain may cause ponding of water in flood prone areas. The Illinois River at Henry and downstream will remain in flood through next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ027-028-171645- Knox-Stark- 1137 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Thunderstorms will move back into the area late this afternoon and continue into tonight. Severe weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Thunderstorms will occur Sunday, but should come to an end during the late afternoon. Additional rainfall will be under an inch. However given recent rains, this amount of rain may cause ponding of water in flood prone areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-171645- Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon- McLean-Menard-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Shelby-Vermilion- 1137 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois and east central Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Thunderstorms will move back into the area late this afternoon and continue into tonight. Severe weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Thunderstorms will occur Sunday, but should come to an end during the late afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with isolated damaging winds and hail up to 1 inch possible. Additional rainfall will range from 1 to 1.5 inches. This amount of rain may cause ponding of water in flood prone areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ062-066-067-071>073-171645- Clay-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland- 1137 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Illinois and southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Thunderstorms will move back into the area late this afternoon and continue into tonight. Severe weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Thunderstorms will occur Sunday, but should come to an end during the late afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with isolated damaging winds and hail up to 1 inch possible. Additional rainfall will likely be just under an inch. This amount of rain may cause ponding of water in flood prone areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ063-068-171645- Clark-Crawford- 1137 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Illinois and southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Thunderstorms will move back into the area late this afternoon and continue into tonight. Severe weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Thunderstorms will occur Sunday, but should come to an end during the late afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with isolated damaging winds and hail up to 1 inch possible. The Wabash River in Crawford and Clark Counties is expected to go into minor flooding late Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. Barker
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Lincoln IL 226 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 ILZ049-050-162015- Scott-Morgan- 226 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SCOTT AND CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT... At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Manchester, or 8 miles northeast of White Hall, moving north at 20 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Jacksonville, Winchester, Murrayville, Chapin, Woodson, Manchester, Alsey, South Jacksonville, Concord, Glasgow, Lynnville, Riggston, Merritt, Nortonville, Jacksonville Municipal Airport and Lake Jacksonville. This includes Interstate 72 between mile markers 52 and 74. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm due to its slow movement, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3981 9040 3979 9005 3952 9017 3952 9056 TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 195DEG 16KT 3954 9032 07
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 99 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:00 UTC.
3 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A viaduct and several streets were flooded in the town of Manchester.
Water was flowing over Illinois Route 104 at Rees Corner northwest of Franklin. Two cars were stranded in the high water.
Numerous roads were flooded in Springfield.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 891176, 891180, 891178, 891179.