Dry conditions continue across portions of Micronesia and this dry weather pattern |is expanding over other areas.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.
Dry conditions continue across portions of Micronesia and this dry weather pattern |is expanding over other areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 29, 8:37 AM UTC, 5 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 637 PM ChST Sat Feb 29 2020 .Marianas Synopsis... Isolated showers and northeast winds prevail over the local area this afternoon. && .Discussion... A few changes made to the forecast. Partly cloudy skies are expected tonight. A shear line remnant, now east of the Marianas, will move west and bring mostly cloudy skies Sunday and Sunday night. A surface trough passing over the Marianas will prolong the mostly cloudy skies through Tuesday night. Deep-layer moisture does increase and the last few model runs have been consistent with showing 700 mb relative humidity over 80 percent on Sunday night. With moisture this high, scattered showers are likely and so added this to the forecast. Lingering moisture will keep showers scattered for part of the day Monday. While the moisture is fairly high, the Precipitable Water Index, while it does increase, remains low enough that thunderstorms are not a large possibility. Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail through the second half of the week. && .Marine... Observations from Tanapag and Ipan buoys show seas between 5 and 6 feet this afternoon. Models show seas building to 6 to 8 feet tonight, then rising to 7 to 9 feet Sunday with a further increase to 8 to 10 feet by Sunday night. Models have decreased the winds a little but some gusts up to 30 knots Monday is possible. Seas will be high enough to be hazardous for small craft Sunday night and Monday. The buoys indicated a north swell and an east-northeast swell. These swells will produce a moderate rip current risk on east and north facing reefs through at least Sunday. The east swell will increase Sunday night and will generate a high rip current risk on east facing reefs, producing surf close to hazardous levels. && .Fire weather... Dry weather will continue tonight and Sunday. The combination of a shear line remnant and a surface trough will increase the chances for showers Sunday night through Tuesday night with scattered showers expected Sunday night and Monday. The daily fire danger has maintained a steady climb and this will continue through Sunday. While the scattered showers may produce a wetting rain, this will only slow the increase of the fire danger rating for a brief time. The second half of next week will seem dry conditions with only a few brief showers at best. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... Two weak circulations can be seen on the latest VIS satellite loop, one southeast Chuuk near 7N154E and another one just southeast of Pohnpei near 5N159E. The leading edge of a fresh to strong trade-wind surge is just east of Kosrae near 165E. Southeast to east-southeast divergent flow aloft will continue near Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae thru Sunday. Converging low-level winds near and north of these circulations will continue to combine with divergent flow aloft to generate sporadic convection near Chuuk and Pohnpei thru Sunday. Modest convergent southeast winds feeding toward the second circulation will keep patchy showers and a few thunderstorms near Kosrae thru Sunday afternoon. As these circulations gradually drift west-northwestward Sunday night and Monday morning, these converging southeast winds will shift westward and sustain similar conditions near Pohnpei and Chuuk. Meanwhile, the leading element of the trade surge will trigger another round of convection near Kosrae Sunday night and Monday. This same element will also prolong unstable conditions for Pohnpei thru Monday night and Chuuk thru Tuesday. Farther east, much drier fresh to strong trades are filtering westward across the Marshall Islands this evening, providing fair weather for Majuro from later tonight thru midweek next week. This same pattern should also reach Kosrae by Monday evening, Pohnpei by Tuesday and Chuuk by midweek next week. E-NE trade-wind swell and wind waves across the Marshall Islands are expect to build higher over the next few days. This will prolong conditions hazardous for small craft and stronger rip currents for Majuro at least thru midweek next week. Surf along east facing reefs at Majuro should stay below hazardous levels in the short term but there is a chance it will creep higher and become hazardous later this weekend or early next week. Future shifts will need to monitor the Kalo Bay buoy closely and issue a High Surf Advisory when necessary. A similar trend is also expected across Kosrae and Pohnpei by Monday, and Chuuk by Tuesday. At the same time, a moderate long-period north swell will also arrive at these three locations later this weekend. This swell combination will likely cause surf on Kosrae to become hazardous. Even surf on Pohnpei and Chuuk might reach hazardous levels and will need to be monitored. Seas near all three locations will approach hazardous levels for small craft as well. && .Western Micronesia for Yap and Koror... A modest surface trough southwest of Koror near 3N132E is retreating westward this evening. A large dome of high pressure near Iwo To Island continues to channel fresh to strong trade winds across far western Micronesia. Residual convergent trade winds northeast of the surface trough can still spark a few showers and thunderstorms near Koror thru tonight. By Sunday morning, much drier trades already over Yap should spread southwestward over Koror. Toward midweek next week, a broad but disorganize tropical disturbance from upstream near Chuuk and Pohnpei will approach far western Micronesia. Most model guidance continues to suggest dry-air intrusion should hinder any significant development on this disturbance. Nevertheless, it can still increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region for the second half of next week. Moderate E-NE trade-wind and long-period N-NE swells should maintain seas at 6 to 8 feet across far western Micronesia thru midweek next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. Marianas Waters...None. && Ziobro/Chan
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Yap and Ulithi enter Severe Drought (D2) with the March rainfall at 21% of normal for Yap and 37% for Ulithi.
Even though Saipan received 76% of normal rainfall in March, dry conditions have persisted long enough that the island has entered Severe Drought(D2).
Wotje continues to experience dry weather with the March rainfall only 42% of normal. it has entered Extreme Drought (D3). Utirik remains at Severe Drought (D2) with the March rainfall 42% of normal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Guam in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 893529, 893530, 893531.