Drought in Guam, April 1 to 30, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
638 PM ChST Tue Mar 31 2020

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and moderate to fresh
trade winds prevail this evening. Satellite shows drier conditions
moving in from the east. Buoys indicate seas between 6 and 8.5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
An overachieving trade-wind disturbance delivered much-needed rain
to the Marianas the past 24 hours. We measured 0.45 inches of rain
here in Tiyan and a few automated rain gauges on Guam recorded around
0.75 inches. Slightly lower amounts were measured across the CNMI.
March rainfall will still end up well below normal at ~55% normal.

Satellite shows much clearer skies moving in from the east and
satellite-derived soundings suggest air is much more stable as well.
Decided to reduce showers to slight chance tonight and Wednesday.
Weak trade-wind disturbances will interrupt partly cloudy skies, the
first centered on Wednesday night and the second Friday. A slightly
more promising trade disturbance should near the Marianas late this
weekend into early next week. At the least cloud cover and a slight
uptick in showers can be expected late Saturday through early next
week. All in all a fairly typical dry season pattern is in store.

&&

.Marine...
Persistent trade swell and wind waves will keep seas around 7 to 8
feet through at least Friday. Seas may be a touch higher tonight due
to all the wind waves kicked up by the gusty winds and showers
today. E to NE swell and wind waves will dominant for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.Fire weather...
Despite some decent showers yesterday and today, fuels will quickly
dry out on Wednesday. A Fire Weather Watch remains a possibility
the next few days as sunnier skies and breezy trades re-establish.
The KBDI is currently in the extreme category at 733.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
An active weather pattern persists across much of the region from
east of Chuuk, across Pohnpei and Kosrae, to near and south of
Majuro. Strong trade-wind convergence will maintain showers across
this region tonight and through midweek. 00Z ASCAT pass shows gentle
trades along and south of 5N, with fresh to strong trades north of
5N, including Pohnpei, Kosrae and the Marshall Islands. The active
ITCZ pattern will remain most pronounced near Majuro and Kosrae into
the weekend with drier weather at Pohnpei and westward to Chuuk.
Despite the active showery pattern in the days to come, much needed
rainfall is not expected across islands west and north of Chuuk, or
across the northern Marshall Islands.

Fresh to strong trades and a large trade wind swell will maintain
hazardous marine conditions for small craft at Pohnpei through
tonight and at Kosrae and Majuro through Wednesday night. Altimetry
passes show combined seas of 8 to 11 feet near the Marshall Islands
and between 8 and 10 feet across Pohnpei and Kosrae States. High Surf
Advisories remain in effect for north reefs of Pohnpei and north and
east reefs of Kosrae. Surf should subside below hazardous levels on
Friday.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Dry weather and moderate to fresh trades this evening will continue
through the end of the week. A weak trade-wind disturbance this
weekend will increase moisture across Yap and Koror, but significant
rainfall is not expected. Otherwise, little change is expected
through the weekend. Expect combined seas of 5 to 7 feet through this
week, building to between 6 and 8 feet this weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday night for GUZ001>004.

Marianas Waters...None.

&&

Bukunt/M. Aydlett