What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 5, 3:36 PM EST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 5, 3:36 PM EST, 2 hours 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
436 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
The last in a series of weather disturbances will cross the area
tonight and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures will fall to below normal by Thursday, then cooling off
even more by the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 PM: A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for all of
Upstate SC and much of western NC through 11 pm. The main question
mark for the severe weather evolution this evening is the lingering
stationary boundary across the heart of the forecast area, which
will retreat only slightly northward ahead of the advancing cold
front. The boundary will certainly serve as a focus, along with the
advancing embedded upper shortwaves. This will lead to very high
coverage, and likely severe weather, near the Interstate 85 corridor
through mid evening. Anticipate large hail and occasionally damaging
wind gusts as the primary threat, but brief tornadic spinups near
the stalled frontal zone are quite possible through 8 or 9 pm. Will
likely end up cancelling the watch from the west steadily through
the evening hours as the upper support moves rapidly east.
The upper trough passes over the region Wednesday, bringing the
first shot of unseasonably cold air this week with showers focused
across the mountains. The timing of the upper disturbance may
drastically limit diurnal warming across the high terrain Wednesday,
which is no easy feat in early May across the Southeast. In fact,
cold enough air wraps in that graupel or snow may mix in with the
rain above 4000 feet later Wednesday afternoon or early evening with
light accumulations possible above 5000 feet. Gusty but probably
below advisory levels northwest winds will also accompany this
system, making it feel even cooler then the daytime temperatures
reaching the 50s to 60s across the region (although much cooler
above 4000 feet).
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday: A large scale upper trof will continue to
swing east of the area to begin the period. Associated embedded vort
energy and upslope flow will maintain -shra across the wrn NC mtns
early on, before tapering off before sunrise Thu. A quiet day on tap
Thu as deep layered drying and a unseasonably cold cP sfc high
engulfs the region. Thus...will likely have frost/freeze concerns
over the NC mtns each night thru the period. Max temps on Thu will
struggle to reach normal levels...likely remaining below by a few
degrees as nw/ly weak CAA flow persists. On Fri...winds will back
sw/ly ahead of an incoming cold front and modify temps back to
normal, while increasing td/s as well. However, instability will be
negligible ahead of the front, so wont expect much more than -shra
most areas with possible low-accum -snsh over the higher mtn ridges
as the frontal zone crosses east Fri night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: Not a lot going on in the ext range. The
latest guidance continues to show a non/seasonal 1024 mb sfc high
dominating the pattern underneath broad cyclonic flow aloft. Cross
sections show deep layered dry air with increasing llvl moisture
late in the period over the NC mtns. Thus...a few nice days with
fairly weak winds and high sunshine are in store, albeit a little on
the cool side. Max temps will begin the period abt 10 degrees below
normal and modify to arnd normal levels by Mon. Mins will remain
below normal due to good rad cooling cond each night...which will
likely continue frost/freeze issues.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Strong gusts with the TEMPO TSRA have been
added to KAVL, KGMU, KGSP, and KCLT through the early evening hours
with the passing strong to severe convection. Anticipate mainly MVFR
cigs, with brief IFR to MVFR vsby with the heaviest downpours, and
some chance of hail at all of these airfields. Lingering MVFR to
locally LIFR cigs/vsbys are then possible in and just behind
stronger thunderstorms. A return to VFR is likely for non-mtn sites
by sunrise Wed with MVFR/low VFR cigs hanging on across some mtn
sites with a return of -shra. Can't rule out graupel or -sn mixing
in across the mountains with perhaps a few showers making it east of
the mountains near the end of the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds
are likely by Wednesday.
Outlook: Dry high pressure spreads back over the region on Thursday.
A cold front with precip and restrictions moves in Friday.
Confidence Table...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT Med 74% Med 61% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 98% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 97% High 83% High 100% High 91%
KHKY Med 72% Med 70% High 91% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/65
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG/65Hazardous weather outlook, May 5, 3:10 PM EST, 2 hours 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
410 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020
NCZ035>037-052-053-056-057-059-063>065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-062015-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
410 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Heavy rainfall is also expected with these thunderstorms, leading to
the potential for isolated flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>051-058-062-062015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Graham-Macon-
410 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will gradually taper off from the
west through the evening hours. Until then, some of the storms will
become severe with damaging winds and large hail possible. Heavy
rainfall is also expected with some of the storms leading to the
potential for isolated flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 5, 4:44 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
544 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020
SCZ003-006-007-052215-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
544 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...
At 544 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Hendersonville, or over Pleasant Ridge State Park,
moving east at 55 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Inman, Campobello, Tigerville, Pleasant Ridge State Park, Jones Gap
State Park, Slater-Marietta, Lake Robinson, Lake Bowen, Gowensville
and Glassy Mountain.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.
LAT...LON 3505 8260 3506 8259 3507 8257 3507 8260
3514 8258 3516 8255 3516 8253 3517 8250
3516 8250 3517 8249 3514 8208 3497 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 269DEG 47KT 3510 8248
ARKLocal storm report, May 5, 4:49 PM EST, 1 hour 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0543 PM HAIL ROEBUCK 34.88N 81.96W
05/05/2020 E1.25 INCH SPARTANBURG SC PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED HALF DOLLAR (1.25") SIZE HAIL NEAR EAST
BLACKSTOCK RD.
&&Special weather statement, May 5, 5:09 PM EST, 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020
SCZ002-003-005>007-052245-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
609 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...WEST
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...
At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Easley, or 6 miles northwest of Berea, moving east at
45 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Pickens, Greenville Downtown, Easley, Greer, Taylors, Berea,
Travelers Rest, Slater-Marietta, Paris Mountain State Park and
Tigerville.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
Upstate South Carolina.
LAT...LON 3482 8274 3500 8278 3514 8220 3488 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 258DEG 39KT 3494 8255
ARK
Local storm report, May 5, 5:41 PM EST, 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0635 PM HAIL 3 ENE CHESTER 34.72N 81.17W
05/05/2020 E1.75 INCH CHESTER SC AMATEUR RADIO
AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED GOLF BALL (1.75") SIZE HAIL
ALONG HIGHWAY 9 EAST OF CHESTER.
&&Local storm report, May 5, 5:46 PM EST, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0633 PM HAIL 4 NE PARIS MTN ST PK 34.99N 82.35W
05/05/2020 E0.75 INCH GREENVILLE SC NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED PENNY (0.75") SIZE HAIL ALONG
HIGHWAY 290.
&&Local storm report, May 5, 5:53 PM EST, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0612 PM HAIL 1 SSE LOCKHART 34.78N 81.46W
05/05/2020 E1.50 INCH UNION SC CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED PING PONG BALL (1.50") SIZE HAIL
&&