Damaging Wind in Georgia, May 5, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1040 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak disturbances will cross the area early this week,
with showers and a few thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will
fall to below normal by Thursday, cooling off even more by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1025 PM Monday: We're still seeing convection fire up along
a surface boundary/convergence zone oriented over the eastern SC
Upstate. Earlier storms produced some impressive hail, but the more
recent convection has been more tame. The main concern going forward,
continues to be an impressive-looking MCS currently moving over south
central Tennessee. It does appear to be taking a more southern path
as it moves eastward, but if it holds together it could make a run
across our southern zones during the overnight with the stronger
activity generally along and south of I-85. Damaging winds still
appear to be the main threat, with small hail and maybe a weak/brief
tornado as secondary threats. Otherwise, warm front activation will
support mainly showers racing northeastward into the early morning
morning hours. After a lull in activity tomorrow morning, increasing
instability and upper shortwave energy to our north will support
another round of showers and thunderstorms that moves SE and off the
higher terrain during the mid to late aftn. An elevated mixed layer
with decent instability aloft may support some strong to severe
thunderstorms with wind followed by hail as the primary threats.
In addition, modest moisture transport from the west and decent
instability may support localized excessive rain especially if
training of cells develops. A hybrid wedge across the NC Piedmont
will likely limit convection for the area especially through mid
afternoon. Rain and wedge-cooled air should support lows in the
mid 50s to low 60s overnight, with highs struggling to break 60
over the I-40 corridor (thanks to the wedge), with 70s and 80s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday: With broad, low amplitude troughing aloft, sfc
low pressure along a once stationary front will be in the process of
moving through the Carolinas Tuesday night as it's associated cold
front brings showers and thunderstorms to the area. Do expect
convection to be ongoing at the beginning of the fcst period,
especially with a majority of the area situated within the warm
sector. Upper s/w impulses within troughing will aid with upper
dynamic support and notable shear looks to be in place. The amount
of available instability continues to be the fly in the ointment and
will depend on the timing of the system to push through the area.
For now, have kept with the trend of showers and thunderstorms, with
a few thunderstorms possibly becoming strong to severe Tuesday
night. The primary threat with any stronger storm would be hail and
damaging winds. With the latest update, SPC Day 2 convective outlook
has the western portions of the area under a marginal risk and the
rest of the area under a general thunder, where the atmosphere looks
to be slightly more stable. Do not anticipate any hydro threats attm.

Behind the exiting system, light showers may linger into Wednesday
late morning across the area, possibly later along the TN border
with NW flow. Otherwise, expect a drying trend for the remainder of
the fcst period into Thursday as sfc high pressure builds into the
area. Max temperatures through the period will remain below normal,
with min temperatures Wednesday morning above normal and below
normal Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Monday: The aforementioned drying trend will be a brief
one as latest guidance continues to prog s/w energy within broad
upper troughing to usher in another cold front later in the day on
Friday. Conditions are trending more towards showers with this
system versus thunderstorms/severe weather, especially given limited
instability and upper dynamic support. Anticipate pre-frontal
showers across the westernmost portions of the area Friday morning,
with activity spreading east-southeastward throughout the day. As
precipitation tapers off across much of the area, with a cooler
airmass infiltrating in behind the front, could not entirely rule
out isolated snow showers at the higher elevations late Friday night
into Saturday morning with upper trough swinging through overhead.

Otherwise, Saturday and Sunday will be dry as sfc high pressure
builds in with amplified trough over the eastern CONUS. Guidance
continues to prog temperatures below normal through the forecast
period. As a result, frost/freeze concerns could arise in some
locations, as noted the past few days.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: It's looking like a decaying MCS could very
well support another round of showers and thunderstorms between roughly
05Z and 09Z overnight that impacts most sites. A lull in activity is
expected after that, with another round of convection possible later
tomorrow aftn and evening. The combination of rainfall south and a
hybrid wedge setting up to the north will likely support MVFR or lower
cigs across many sites after 09Z with some gradual improvement likely
by the aftn.

Outlook: A period of unsettled weather and flight restrictions
continues thru Wednesday. Dry high pressure spreads back over the
region on Thursday.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  80%     High  89%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...17
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
611 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-
510-SCZ001>007-010>013-019-052215-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Greenwood-
611 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, southwestern
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line or area of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move
east across Tennessee this evening and reach western North Carolina
late in the evening. If the storms hold together, strong to severe
thunderstorms may move across the central and southern mountains of
North Carolina, northeast Georgia, and Upstate South Carolina through
the early morning hours. Strong and damaging wind gusts are the main
threat, but sporadic large hail or a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out. Lightning, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall can be
expected with any storm. The storms would weaken as they move east
across the Upstate before dawn.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-068>072-082-501-503-505-506-508-SCZ008-009-014-052215-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Cherokee-York-Chester-
611 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will move into the area tonight.
Lightning, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall can be expected
with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-052215-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
611 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             3 NE REIDVILLE          34.89N 82.07W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY
            290 AND 296 IN MOORE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

LACORTE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1056 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

SCZ009-014-050330-
York SC-Chester SC-
1056 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

At 1056 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Chester, or 4 miles west of Lowrys, moving east at
25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mcconnells, Lowrys and Bullock Creek.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 8142 3486 8142 3491 8110 3471 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 264DEG 21KT 3481 8132

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1114 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

NCZ071-082-050345-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1114 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

At 1113 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Indian Land, or near Weddington, moving east at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, South Charlotte, Matthews, Indian Trail, Weddington,
Stallings, Pineville, Wesley Chapel, Lake Park and Hemby Bridge.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8081 3509 8091 3520 8055 3497 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 259DEG 17KT 3505 8076

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1128 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

SCZ009-014-050400-
York SC-Chester SC-
1128 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
YORK COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1128 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Rock Hill, or 7 miles northwest of Richburg, moving
east at 25 mph.

Other storms were developing near Richburg in Chester County.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Lesslie, Great Falls, Fort Lawn, Richburg, Catawba,
Fishing Creek Reservoir and Edgemoor.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 8090 3460 8089 3456 8087 3454 8088
      3455 8100 3469 8114 3480 8117 3489 8114
      3491 8088 3487 8088 3484 8087 3483 8090
      3482 8090 3479 8088 3475 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 269DEG 22KT 3481 8107

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1143 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

NCZ082-050415-
Union NC-
1143 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
1215 AM EDT...

At 1143 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monroe, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Unionville, Wingate, Marshville, Sturdivants, Indian Trail
and New Salem.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3481 8036 3487 8049 3498 8062
      3508 8062 3514 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 274DEG 22KT 3502 8054

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 AM EDT Tue May 5 2020

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ062-SCZ001-050530-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Macon NC-Oconee Mountains SC-
103 AM EDT Tue May 5 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WESTERN
STEPHENS...HABERSHAM...RABUN...SOUTH CENTRAL MACON AND WEST CENTRAL
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

At 102 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 3 miles northeast of
Hiawassee to 11 miles northwest of Clarkesville to 6 miles southeast
of Cleveland, and moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Clarkesville, Toccoa, Cornelia, Demorest, Mount Airy,
Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard and Tallulah Falls.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8365 3488 8366 3491 8363 3492 8360
      3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355 3500 8348
      3500 8352 3503 8353 3504 8336 3481 8330
      3450 8334 3449 8366 3450 8367 3454 8362
      3465 8366 3474 8362 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 256DEG 39KT 3497 8371 3473 8366 3453 8369

Carroll