What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 6, 1:54 PM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 1:54 PM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
254 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Passing upper-level disturbances will produce greater than
typical coverage of showers and thunderstorms through Friday. A
return to more typical isolated to scattered summertime thunderstorm
activity is expected over the weekend as weak drying arrives from
the west. Moisture will gradually return late in the weekend through
the middle of next week to support a more active pattern once again.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 254 PM Thursday: Convection still trying to catch
up to the forecast, but no reason to think that it will not
happen...eventually. The CAMs are now suggesting that the bulk of
the convective activity will happen during the evening hours over
the wrn Piedmont and Upstate, while convection may carry on into
the late evening across the entire region. That seems reasonable
as it is what often happens on days with a late start. Still
think we also remain on track for scattered severe storms with a
wind damage threat, given sfc-based CAPE already around 2500 J/kg,
dCAPE above 800 J/kg, and some mid-level dry air seen on satellite
imagery. Temps were in good shape.
Persistence will be the rule for the weather and the forecast of
the same for the next 24 hours as the upper trof axis remains in
place to our west. Just like last night, we may keep showery precip
around parts of the forecast area for the better part of the tonight
period before it finally wanes in the pre-dawn hours. On Friday,
more of the same. Hard to say if there will be the same amount of
morning cloudiness that will delay the onset again, but the fcst
looks the same in terms of coverage that will go beyond climo in
the afternoon. The environment should be conducive to a few pulse
severe storms again as well, with sfc-based CAPE in the 2000 -
3000 J/kg range and sfc-delta Theta-e above 30 deg. Temps will be
near normal as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 pm EDT Thursday: Deeper moisture and higher PWAT values
will be displaced off to our east this weekend as weak upper trough
axis translates east and fills. Essentially, for the upcoming
weekend, wx conds are expected to be pretty typical of early August,
featuring a developing weaker flow regime, and seasonable humidity
levels. Dirunally fired deeper convective chances will be close to
climo values with piedmont maximum apparent temperatures approaching
95 each day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 pm EDT Thursday: Still expectimg a weak westerly flow
regime with embedded weak s/wv's rippling thru to exist atop the SE
CONUS to start off the work week. PWAT progs starting on Monday
depict a moisting trend after a weekend featuring below climo values.
Despite limited Gulf moisture fetch, expecting a daily uptick in
diurnal PoPs for showers and thunderstorms each day.
PoPs may increase further above climo Wednesday and Thursday as
moisture begins to pool over the region as a frontal boundary lays
out across the Mid-Atlantic to the north. Anticipate plenty of lower
90s Piedmont to upper 80s mountain valley max temperatures each
afternoon, with mins a degree or so above climo through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: A thunderstorm has formed near the KAVL
airport and it seems to be anchored to the side of Mt Pisgah,
so that was taken into account for that TAF. Extensive cloudiness
this morning has delayed the development of the deeper convection
outside the mtns, though. A cumulus field continues to develop
over the wrn Piedmont with bases right around 030, which could
result in a brief MVFR ceiling for the next hour or so before it
lifts to 035 or higher. Otherwise...VFR with a light wind that
has a southerly component. The CAMs are somewhat at odds as to
the timing of thunderstorms across the region, but agree that all
sites will be affected by one at SOME point through the evening
hours. Rather than mess with PROB30s that have to be resolved later,
the fcst goes straight to a TEMPO at all sites for some 4-hr window
in the evening hours. Any convection after that will be handled
with amendments, as it is possible the storms will persist into
the early morning hours. After some convective debris thins out,
guidance remains on the track of developing MVFR/IFR stratus and
fog before daybreak across much of the region. Several sites get
at least an MVFR restriction in ceiling and/or vis, but confidence
not really high enough to go IFR everywhere yet. Might be another
late initiation again on Friday, so only KCLT gets a thunderstorm
mention after 18Z. Southerly flow will also persist.
Outlook: Coverage of thunderstorms will be more isolated to
scattered during the afternoon and evening over the weekend. Morning
fog/stratus restrictions will also be possible, especially over
the usual mountain valleys. Diurnal storms will become more likely
again from Monday onward.
Confidence Table...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 85% High 90%
KGSP High 100% High 99% Med 70% High 84%
KAVL High 100% High 95% Med 74% High 83%
KHKY High 100% High 94% Med 68% Med 76%
KGMU High 100% High 100% Med 72% High 84%
KAND High 100% High 100% Med 77% High 84%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PMHazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 3:08 AM EST, 12 hours 25 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-070815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
408 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this
afternoon and evening, with the most widespread coverage likely
occurring across western North Carolina. Any of these thunderstorms
will be capable of producing dangerous lightning, gusty winds, and
torrential downpours. Some of these storms may become severe, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Any locations
repeatedly affected by thunderstorms over a short period of time will
be prone to localized flash flooding from the heavy rainfall.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 6, 2:44 PM EST, 49 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
344 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
NCZ048-062015-
Madison NC-
344 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 12 miles southeast of Greeneville, or 11 miles
south of Tusculum, moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Allenstand.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3603 8259 3599 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
3596 8258 3591 8271 3594 8290 3595 8288
3595 8285 3594 8283 3594 8281 3597 8278
3598 8279 3600 8278 3606 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 249DEG 16KT 3602 8268
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 6, 2:48 PM EST, 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
348 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
NCZ505-506-062015-
McDowell Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
348 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
MCDOWELL COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
At 348 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 5 miles west of Marion, moving northeast at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Lake James, Woodlawn, Pleasant Gardens and Nebo.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3562 8214 3571 8220 3582 8202 3569 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 240DEG 8KT 3570 8210
KRENTZ
Special weather statement, Aug 6, 3:01 PM EST, 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
NCZ072-062030-
Cabarrus NC-
401 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
At 401 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles west of Albemarle, or 4 miles east of Mt
Pleasant, moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Mt Pleasant.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3531 8042 3532 8045 3546 8044 3548 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 269DEG 19KT 3539 8036
KRENTZ
Special weather statement, Aug 6, 3:09 PM EST, 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
409 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
GAZ029-062045-
Elbert GA-
409 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
ELBERT COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
At 409 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 4 miles northwest of Elberton, moving northeast at
20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Elberton, Middleton, Lake Russell, Dewy Rose, Sweet City and
Ruckersville.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3404 8295 3403 8296 3405 8299 3408 8300
3408 8301 3410 8304 3411 8303 3412 8305
3414 8306 3425 8289 3412 8271 3403 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 226DEG 19KT 3413 8293
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 6, 3:16 PM EST, 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
416 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
NCZ033-062045-
Avery NC-
416 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Beech Mountain, or near Beech Mountain In
Avery County, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Banner Elk, Elk Park, Beech Mountain In Avery County, Sugar Mountain
and Seven Devils.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3627 8189 3625 8190 3624 8190 3623 8191
3621 8190 3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183
3614 8182 3609 8191 3616 8201 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 232DEG 12KT 3617 8191
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 6, 3:20 PM EST, 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
SCZ019-062045-
Greenwood SC-
420 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
GREENWOOD COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
At 420 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 6 miles south of Greenwood, moving northeast at 15
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Ninety Six, Ninety Six Historic Site, Promised Land,
Bradley and Epworth.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3409 8229 3411 8226 3414 8225 3427 8214
3413 8197 3403 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 232DEG 12KT 3411 8219
KRENTZ