Heavy Rain in Georgia, August 25, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
239 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Drier airmass aloft will support lower rainfall chances today,
while humid southeast flow around the high pressure ridge axis
just north of the region will combine with warmer temps to produce
Peak Heat Indices/Feels Like temps in the 105-110 range this
afternoon. Brief Isolated showers possible along the I-95
corridor as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland late this
morning, then scattered showers and storms across inland SE GA
and along the I-75 corridor of NE FL this afternoon/early evening.
Max Temps will top out in the lower/middle 90s inland and upper
80s/near 90 degrees along the coast. Onshore flow will continue to
support a Moderate to High Risk of Rips with surf/breakers in the
3-5 ft range. Quiet conds tonight with warm and humid overnight
lows in the middle/upper 70s inland and lower 80s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

The ridge of high pressure off the Atlantic coastline will
slowly shift south through Thursday night, with onshore east-
southeasterly flow gradually becoming more south-southeasterly.
Although flow is on-shore and we'll remain very warm under
dominant high pressure, available moisture for storms will be
lacking, especially on Wednesday. Therefore, generally dry
conditions anticipated Wednesday with a few isolated showers or
storms possible in north-central Florida where there will be a
small axis of moisture available. Widely scattered showers and
storms anticipated Thursday, when more southerly flow begins to
pull in more moisture to the area. Highs will be in the low-mid
90s and lows will be mostly in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

By Friday, the remnants of Laura will be pulled northward in the
weakness between two ridges (the one on the Atlantic coast and
another out over the desert southwest) and get picked up by weak
low pressure aloft, helping fuel a developing frontal system that
will sweep towards the southeastern US this weekend and then stall
out north of the area early next week. This will increase the
pressure gradient over the area and increased south-southeasterly
flow will work more moist air back into the atmospheric column,
so more widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in
the afternoons from Friday into early next week. Highs will trend
back down to the upper 80s- lower 90s through the period, with
lows mostly in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Little change from last TAF package as most sites have become VFR
with just a few MVFR CIGS impacting the coastal TAF sites of
CRG/SSI for a couple more hours as E-SE winds continue to increase
to 10-14 knots. Still expect just enough moisture to kick off some
scattered storms near or just West of GNV, so have kept the VCTS
for now, still not high enough rainfall chances to place TEMPO in
at this time. Lighter winds overnight may allow for some MVFR
VSBYS in light fog or CIGS around 1500 feet at GNV/VQQ towards
morning in the 08-12z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will continue to diminish into the early morning
hours Wednesday as high pressure continues to build over the area
and Hurricane Laura continues to move west-northwestward through
the Gulf. Light winds from the southeast will prevail through
Friday as high pressure shifts south, then winds will increase in
speed as a front approaches the southeastern US this weekend.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk will continue for NE FL
beaches today with Moderate risk for our SE GA beaches. Swells of
2-4 feet and periods of 10-11 seconds will gradually dampen within
the local waters today, with Moderate rip current risk expected
for all local beaches Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  94  73  93  74 /  20  10   0  20  10
SSI  79  88  77  90  78 /   0  10   0  10  10
JAX  76  93  75  93  76 /   0  10   0  30  10
SGJ  78  89  76  91  76 /   0  10   0  30  10
GNV  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20   0  40  10
OCF  75  94  75  93  74 /  10  30   0  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&