Lightning Strike in Florida, June 3, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.Aviation...
A Bermuda high, and an upper level ridge of high pressure to the
east, have brought an easterly low level and also some moisture in
from the south. This has brought SHRA and TSRA to the Atlantic
waters and the eastern half of South Florida. The weather should
push inland later this morning and begin to affect the Gulf coast
as well. Tomorrow is forecast to see more widespread convective
activity across the area.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 344 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

..Wet, unsettled pattern ahead...

Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
The weak frontal boundary will start to lift northward today as a
mid to upper level ridge continues to push eastward out into the
open Atlantic. This will allow for an increase southeasterly flow to
develop across the region. As the weak frontal boundary pushes
northward across the area, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop across South Florida throughout the day.
With the east to southeasterly flow in place and the east and west
coast sea breezes developing, the highest concentration of showers
and thunderstorms will shift to the interior and west coast by the
afternoon hours. With the sea breezes developing and the front
moving northward, there will be enough instability in place to
support a strong thunderstorm or two especially across the interior
sections this afternoon. High temperatures today will remain in the
mid 80s across the east coast to around 90 across the southwestern
interior sections.

The latest computer model guidance shows a surge of deeper tropical
moisture moving into the region later tonight and throughout the day
on Thursday with pwat values on the latest forecast soundings
remaining over 2 inches during this time frame. This will allow for
the higher chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue as well.
Heavy rainfall will be possible with these showers and thunderstorms
due to the high amount of moisture available. With sea breeze
development still in place as well as the deep southeasterly flow,
we could see a training pattern develop in the shower and
thunderstorm activity. This could lead to the potential for
localized flooding in the low lying and poor drainage areas as well
as areas that have been already saturated due to the heavy rainfall
that occurred last week. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the
lower to mid 80s across the east coast to the upper 80s across the
southwestern interior.

Long Term (Friday through Tuesday)...
A wet and unsettled pattern will be the weather story through a good
portion of the week. Surface high pressure is centered over the
Atlantic late week allowing an easterly to southeasterly wind flow
into the weekend. A mid-level trough will amplify as it reaches
the Mississippi River valley leading to a retreat of the surface
ridge of high pressure eastward.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will be a feature to watch this week and
weekend. Rich tropical moisture will stream into the region from
equatorial parts of the Eastern Pacific and the western Caribbean
Sea. This rich moisture combined with light wind flow, diurnal
heating, and South Florida's sea breezes could lead to a concern
for heavy rainfall with showers and thunderstorms over much of the
rest of the week. As the hold of the surface ridge weakens over
the Gulf of Mexico, Cristobal is forecast by the National
Hurricane Center to depart Mexico and the Bay of Campeche for the
open Gulf.

Some forecast variability due to Cristobal is possible through the
end of the extended. A weaker storm will likely be more disorganized
with a larger area of convection and moisture which could increase
rain chances for the peninsula of Florida. On the flip side, a more
concentrated storm in the Gulf could lead to a moisture focus to the
west of the peninsula with drier air potentially entering the region
to help lessen the rain chances. Current wet forecast trend appears
appropriate given the latest forecast guidance with precipitable
water values exceeding 2 inches across the board but wanted to
mention that some uncertainty certainly exists and could lead to
some local forecast variability into the weekend and early next
week.

Marine...
Southeasterly flow will continue through the end of the week
across the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters. Seas across the
Atlantic waters will continue to decrease as the day progresses.
These seas will generally range at 3 feet or less through the end
of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
occur across the local waters through the end of the week. Winds
and seas across the Gulf waters could start to increase this
weekend depending on the track and location of Tropical Storm
Cristobal.

Beach Forecast...
There will be a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic
coast beaches today as southeasterly winds will increase to around
15 knots later this morning and into the afternoon hours.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  85  74  83  76 /  40  40  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  85  76  83  78 /  30  30  80  60
Miami            86  76  83  77 /  20  30  70  60
Naples           86  73  83  73 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Aviation...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
401 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
032015-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
401 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...Scattered Thunderstorms and Localized Flooding Today...
...High Risk of Rip Currents Atlantic Coast Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic
beaches today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will continue through today
and tonight across most of South Florida. The strongest storms could
contain heavy rainfall and gusty winds especially across the interior
and west coast this afternoon.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible over the Gulf of
Mexico waters, Lake Okeechobee, and the Atlantic waters today.

Flooding: Some of the showers and thunderstorms could contain heavy
rainfall which could lead to some localized flooding in urban and
poor drainage areas.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms across the interior and west coast
could have wind gusts up to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage through the
remainder of the week and the first part of the weekend. Periods of
locally heavy rainfall could result in flooding in some areas over
the next several days. Gusty winds may also accompany the stronger
thunderstorms, especially late this week and this weekend.

The risk of rip currents will remain elevated at the Atlantic beaches
for the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. The rip current
risk may also increase at the Gulf beaches this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.