Persistent easterly flow allowed for showers and storms to develop and migrate towards the Gulf Coast of South Florida. An inverted trough axis that finally pushed from the Florida peninsula and out in the Gulf Of Mexico further allowed for instability and aided in the development of convection, especially with a nearly cloud-free morning.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Persistent easterly flow allowed for showers and storms to develop and migrate towards the Gulf Coast of South Florida. An inverted trough axis that finally pushed from the Florida peninsula and out in the Gulf Of Mexico further allowed for instability and aided in the development of convection, especially with a nearly cloud-free morning. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall eventually led to flooding in portions of Collier County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 12:29 PM EST, 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 129 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .Aviation... Convection has pushed west towards APF, which could experience sub-VFR conditions through the afternoon. Other sites could also be impacted by brief isolated Atlantic showers through the rest of today into tonight. Rain chances will climb again on Monday morning from east to west. Generally easterly wind flow with some variable gustiness possible around convection. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 933 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020/ Update... Forecast is on track as a slightly drier airmass, evidenced by a drier 12z MFL sounding with a precipitable water value down to 1.77 inches, has moved in behind the trough as it departs into the Gulf. With surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic to provide a persistent easterly flow, some showers and an isolated storm are possible through the morning along the east coast. Still appears that if convection can get going later today over the interior and west coast, that some strong storms are possible. No major changes to the forecast philosophy this morning with no additional updates anticipated through midday. Have a wonderful Sunday! Prev Discussion... /issued 250 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020/ Short Term... Now through Monday... The over all pattern is pretty stagnant. Upper level high pressure over the area, and a broad surface high over the Atlantic. This should keep the easterly low and mid level flow. The GFS is showing PWATs of over 2 inches this morning over the entire area. While it has been up around there the last couple of days, the GFS is showing a drier air mass moving into the area through the day today. This may act as a dry line situation. The 500mb temps also show some warming through the day (around -6.8C), generally along the moisture gradient. Combine this with some weak 500mb height drops, and possibly an east coast sea breeze, and we could have some decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms, as well as some stronger thunderstorms, especially this afternoon for the interior and Gulf coast, enhanced by diurnal heating. this mornings sounding should help to identify the exact hazards today, but it would see strong downbursts. Since the dry air should move into the east coast fairly early, not thinking flooding will be a major concern, although it is still a non-zero chance. Looking at the NAM Bufkit soundings, there is a potential for back building, and perhaps some training for the western half of the area. This would bring at least an urban flood threat for the Gulf coast this afternoon, especially in sensitive area. Fortunately, that side of the CWA has not received as much rain as the east coast. Another factor that may help to enhance convection today is diurnal heating. Where yesterday started out fairly cloudy across the area, today should see more sun early. This should help to de-stabilize the area, making it easier for any boundary to set off convective development. By tonight, the GFS has moisture returning to the area, along with some cooler air at 500mb. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are showing somewhat of a lull in activity for Sunday night. This is likely due to the lack of and strong lift in the area. However, they are both showing some maritime activity over the Atlantic, which could move onshore, along the Atlantic coast. Monday should see another surge in tropical moisture, which may be a somewhat weaker tropical wave. The 500mb heights drop some again, and a weak inverted surface trough looks to be in the area. 500mb temperatures drop to -8C again, and PWATs should be around 2 inches again. This would allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms. However, being tropical in nature, the showers will likely outnumber the thunderstorms, and the main threat from the storms would be lighting and urban type flooding, possibly for both coasts. Long Term... Monday Night through Saturday... Three words for the extended period: stagnant and unsettled. E-W oriented ridge axis across the SE CONUS will keep deep easterlies in place while a tropical wave gradually creeps across the northern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico -- as of 2 AM EDT Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this wave a 20 percent chance of tropical formation through the next five days. These two features will aid in abnormal atmospheric moisture at 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal, or in the 90th percentile, throughout the extended period. The abundant tropical moisture should continue supporting subtle ascent across the southern Florida peninsula, leading to scattered to widespread coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms each day through the period, especially interior/western sections thanks to the aforementioned easterly flow. With that said, periodic breaks in convection are still expected throughout the extended period. The incessant rich moisture advection combined with the development of multiple low-mid level perturbations, vort lobes, and day-to-day variations will allow for periods of enhanced ascent and more robust convection, especially during the afternoon hours. The main hazards throughout the forecast period continue to be gusty winds, waterspouts, funnel clouds, frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, and localized flooding (especially across vulnerable low-lying metro areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms). As we make our way into the work week, wouldn't be surprised to see FFG significantly lower from the current 2 to 4 inches, especially with repeated rounds of torrential rainfall. Will continue with a persistence forecast throughout the long term. Global models continue to be overzealous with regards to convection, especially the NBM, so capped PoPs again at ~70 to 80 percent. Daytime high temperatures will remain near average through the extended period, with warm overnight lows due to the persistent easterly flow and adequate cloud coverage. Marine... There are no significant marine concerns at this time. Seas for the Atlantic and Gulf should run up to 3 feet through the week. Seas may occasionally build to 4 feet for the Atlantic waters on Tuesday, before subsiding Tuesday evening. The concern for the area is active weather. Gusty showers and thunderstorms may bring locally hazardous marine conditions to any of the local waters through the week. Hazards include gusty wind, locally rough seas, lightning, and waterspouts. Beach Forecast... A breezy east wind should continue to bring an enhanced risk of rip currents to the Atlantic beaches. With the wind running 10 to 15 kts all week, the Atlantic beaches should continue to have at least a moderate risk of rip currents. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... West Palm Beach 78 89 77 89 / 20 50 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 88 79 88 / 20 40 60 70 Miami 79 89 78 89 / 30 40 60 80 Naples 76 92 76 90 / 20 60 40 90 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && Aviation...02/RAG
Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 310 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 191915- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 310 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST COAST... ...URBAN STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE GULF COAST... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible today across South Florida. The main hazards will be lightning, gusty wind, and the minor flooding of roadways and other poorly drained areas. Wind: Wind gusts over the maritime areas of South Florida may see gusts exceed 34 kts with showers and thunderstorms. Gusty showers and thunderstorms over land could also produce 45 to 55 mph wind gusts. Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible with any showers or storms over South Florida waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches. Flooding: Urban flooding will be possible today, especially for the Gulf coast, with roadways in low laying or poor drainage areas the most likely to experience issues. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY The chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the weekend as tropical moisture continues to move across the region. Thunderstorms may bring lightning, gusty wind, and heavy downpours. Urban street flooding may be a concern as showers and thunderstorms continue to affect the area through the week. The enhanced risk of rip currents may continue well into next week for the Atlantic beaches. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind, waterspouts, and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Miami FL 1216 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 FLZ063-066-067-070-071-191700- Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL- Inland Palm Beach County FL-Glades FL- 1216 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLLIER...EASTERN HENDRY...FAR NORTHWESTERN BROWARD...SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN GLADES COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT... * At 1215 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Belle Glade to near Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge. Movement was west at 20 mph. * Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these storms. * Locations impacted include... Belle Glade, Clewiston, South Bay, Lake Harbor, Okeelanta, Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge, Belle Glade Camp and Harlem. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes. This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and local media for additional updates and possible warnings. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and Twitter. Persons participating in outdoor activities should seek sturdy shelter until these storms pass. Open shelters found in parks, beaches, or golf courses offer no protection from the dangers of lightning. && LAT...LON 2680 8106 2617 8118 2628 8070 2677 8060 TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 084DEG 18KT 2670 8070 2635 8077 RAG
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1238 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020
FLZ063-066-191715-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
1238 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HENDRY AND
SOUTHEAST GLADES COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...
* At 1237 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm over Moore Haven, moving west at 15
mph.
* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
with this storm.
* Locations impacted include...
Clewiston, Moore Haven, Ortona and Lake Hicpochee.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.
Persons participating in outdoor activities should seek sturdy
shelter until this storm passes. Open shelters found in parks,
beaches, or golf courses offer no protection from the dangers of
lightning.
&&
LAT...LON 2689 8100 2688 8096 2677 8094 2666 8132
2693 8137 2694 8100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 080DEG 14KT 2685 8104
RAGSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Miami FL 114 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 FLZ066-070-191800- Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL- 114 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM EDT... * At 114 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles southeast of Ave Maria, moving west at 10 mph. * Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this storm. * Locations impacted include... Ave Maria, Golden Gate Estates, Orangetree, Big Corkscrew Island, Miles City, Sunniland, Picayune Strand State Forest and Intersection I-75 And Everglades Blvd. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes. This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and local media for additional updates and possible warnings. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and Twitter. && LAT...LON 2629 8122 2610 8125 2605 8163 2642 8158 TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 096DEG 10KT 2624 8135 HVN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Broadcast media reported flooding across Marco Island associated with thunderstorms that slowly pushed through the area. Reports that multiple streets were under 1-2 feet of water with gauge reports across Marco Island measuring between 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in only a few hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 899926.