Funnel Cloud in Florida, July 13, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
343 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.Short Term (Rest of Today and Tuesday)...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across South
Florida this afternoon. Additional convection is continuing to
develop along outflow boundaries. Southwesterly flow will continue
to focus the bulk of the convection over the interior and east
coast. The main impacts being heavy rainfall, lightning and an
isolated strong wind gust possible. Hi-res model guidance has much
of the activity moving offshore and diminishing by early evening
hours with only a few lingering remnant boundaries and storms
remaining.

As we move into tomorrow a little drier airmass and some SAL over
South Florida will limit the overall coverage across the region.
Scattered convection will once again be possible as both the Gulf
coast and the east coast seabreeze look to develop. The east coast
seabreeze, at least with latest hi-res guidance looks to be able to
push a littler further inland away from the coast then previous
days. Overall impacts remain the same across South Florida with
typical summer afternoon thunderstorms.

High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s with triple
digit heat indices continuing across South Florida.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Monday)...
High pressure aloft will begin to spread across southern portions
of the United States, eventually merging with the western Atlantic
Subtropical Ridge (aka Bermuda High). Drier air in the mid levels
and some subsidence will keep convective coverage somewhat
limited through midweek. This will quickly change as the remainder
of the week evolves. The strong well defined ridge to our north
will help with a strong easterly flow from the Caribbean through
the Gulf of Mexico. A series of disturbances will begin to move
through the region starting as early as Thursday. With each
passing wave of tropical moisture, diurnally driven showers and
T'storms will be enhanced respectively.

Going into the upcoming weekend, conditions appear to be trending
wetter. Late in the week a TUTT will develop and traverse through
the area bringing an uptick in rain chances. As this feature
moves west into the gulf, the GFS pings a fairly interesting mid
level feature across the region. A modest gyre-like feature
develops over Cuba, the FL Straits, and western Gulf with very
modest vorts rotating around this feature. The ECM doesn't have
this feature, but does have the aforementioned TUTT in relative
close proximity. Regardless, either solution looks to keep the
train of tropical moisture over our region through the remainder
of the long term period with heavy rain possible. As for
temperatures continued to drop modestly across the board this
weekend and early next week as confidence in rain/cloud cover
continues to gradually increase.

&&

.Marine...
South/southwesterly winds over the local South Florida
waters with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall with
gusty and erratic winds are possible in or near any showers and
thunderstorms. Easterly wind flow will return later this week with
increased tropical moisture and rain chances.

&&

.Aviation (18z TAFs)...
Southwesterly wind flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing this afternoon and will continue into this evening,
with VCTS for all sites. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with any
storms that move directly over the terminals. Convection will
diminish later this evening with light winds returning overnight.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  76  92  77  92 /  10  40  10  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  40
Miami            78  93  79  93 /  10  40  10  40
Naples           78  91  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Marine...33/Kelly
Aviation...33/Kelly
Beach Forecast...33/Kelly
Short Term...33/Kelly
Long Term...28/Frye

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
936 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
140145-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
936 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTERIOR/EAST COAST...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will develop and push eastward
as the day progresses. The greatest chances of thunderstorms will be
across the interior and east coast especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms could contain wind gusts in excess
of 45mph.

Flooding: There could be some localized street flooding across the
urban and low lying areas due to heavy downpours and high rainfall
rates from thunderstorms.

Waterspouts: A waterspouts are possible with showers and storms over
the South Florida waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated across South Florida each
afternoon, with the primary threat being localized flooding due to
heavy rainfall. Frequent lightning, locally strong wind gusts, and
potentially waterspouts may accompany the strongest storms that
develop. Heat indices in the triple digits are possible across
portions of South Florida each afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.